"...damned lies, and statistics" earlier attestation claim

Stephen Goranson goranson at DUKE.EDU
Thu Nov 9 13:39:42 UTC 2006


Earlier than the claimed attribution to Benjamin Disraeli (Beaconsfield) in a
Times letter to the editor 27 July 1895:

Now, however, that there is a lull in this process of military conversion, the
latest statistics would seem to show that the Indians are no longer decreasing
in numbers. But this is in reality only another instance of Bagehot's "Lies,
d----d, lies, and statistics." The Indians, as Indians, are fast disappearing,
in spite of the fact that these blanketed, copper-coloured numerals of the
Indians about hold their own.

Page 150 in Mr. Picket-Pin and His Friends, by Price Collier (1860-1913) (New
York: Dutton, 1894 {also perhaps in the London 1894 ed.). Collier was an
American who spent time in England. Collier repeated "the admirable phrase of
Walter Bagehot..." in England and the English from an American Point of View
(1909) 37.

Of course this does not prove that Walter Bagehot (1826-1877) was the
originator, nor that Disraeli was (1804-1885) was not. When I asked, an editor
of the Disraeli papers had not encountered it as by Disraeli. Robert Giffen
(1837-1910) in a January 1892 talk published in June (and cited in
YaleBQ) said that the phrase was "lately modified" from another one. If Giffen,
journalist (who worked with Bagehot at The Economist), economist (known for the
Giffen paradox), and statistician, was right that the coining was recent (and
depending on what counts as recent), then both Bagehot and Disraeli may have
died to early to qualify; or Giffen was mistaken. The putative earlier saying
source, about witnesses who are liars, damned (or outrageous) liars, and
experts/scientific experts/expert witnesses, is, at least, attested earlier
than 1892, e.g., by Thomas Henry Huxley in 5 Dec 1885.
Leonard Henry Courtney (1832-1918) in 1895 addressed a group in Saratoga
Springs NY about results in a future, fictitious vote without proportional
representation. Whether Courtney, a Liberal, in this case expected his NY
audience to think of Disraeli, a Conservative, as the "Wise Statesman" may be
questioned. Courtney is one of the many attributions claimed (e.g. by J.A.
Baines in 1896) for the quotation.

Stephen Goranson
http://www.duke.edu/~goranson

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