Quote: It is difficult to predict, especially the future (variant in English 1956) (attrib Neils Bohr 1971); Question about Danish text

[Garson O'Toole]

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
It’s difficult to prophesy, especially about the future.

This saying has been credited to Yogi Berra, Samuel Goldwyn, Niels
Bohr, Robert Storm Petersen, Oscar Wilde, Mark Twain (mandatory), and
others.

YBQ has a 1948 citation for an appearance of the aphorism in Danish in
a book with the English title "Goodbye and Thanks" by K. K. Steincke.
(I think the book is in Danish because I cannot find it in English
with that title and author.)

YBQ also lists a 1975 cite for the attribution to Niels Bohr who is
very often given credit for the comment.

Barry Popik investigated the maxim in 2010 and did an extensive and
excellent job.
http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/never_make_forecasts_especially_about_the_future/

I was asked to explore this saying, and here are the key preliminary results:
First appearance in English of a version of the saying:

Cite: 1956, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A
(General), "Proceedings of the Meeting", [Speaker: Bradford Hill],
Page 147, Volume 119, Number 2,  Blackwell Publishing for the Royal
Statistical Society. (JSTOR)

Alas, it is always dangerous to prophesy, particularly, as the Danish
proverb says, about the future.

http://www.jstor.org/stable/2342881


First appearance with the word "prediction" which is used in the most
common modern variants:

Cite: 1961 May, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political
Science / Revue canadienne d'Economique et de Science politique,
"Canada's Economic Prospects: A Survey of Ten Industries" by Jesse W.
Markham, Page 264, Volume 27, Number 2, Blackwell Publishing on behalf
of Canadian Economics Association. (JSTOR)

"Prediction," goes an old Danish proverb, "is hazardous, especially
about the future."

http://www.jstor.org/stable/139149


First attribution to the physicist Neils Bohr:

Cite: 1971 December, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, On the Social
Deployment of Science by Alan G. Mencher, Page 37, Educational
Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc. (Google Books full view)

We must test all intellectually respectable lines of inquiry, while
keeping in mind that, as the great Danish physicist Neils Bohr said,
"it is very difficult to predict - especially the future."

http://books.google.com/books?id=JgsAAAAAMBAJ&q=Bohr#v=snippet&q=Bohr&f=false


The Oxford Dictionary of Scientific Quotations gives a 1991
attribution for Bohr and appends this note:

Bohr always attributed the saying to Robert Storm Petersen
(1882–1949), a well-known Danish artist and writer. However, the
saying did NOT originate from Petersen. It may have been said in the
Danish Parliament between 1935 and 1939 [Information supplied courtesy
of Professor Erik Rüdinger, Niels Bohr Archive, Copenhagen].


Thank you very much for reading to this point. You must be very
interested in this quotation, and you can help. Perhaps you know
Danish or you have a friend that knows Danish. The following link goes
to a blog post that seems to present evidence that the quote appeared
in Danish in 1918 and/or the 1930s. Can you evaluate this blog post to
see if it contains useful information about the quotation?

http://chaosbook.blogspot.com/2010/06/lundskovdk-citater.html

Thanks for any help,
Garson

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