[Ads-l] flake-out, flake-in

Ben Zimmer bgzimmer at GMAIL.COM
Sun Jan 24 04:20:04 UTC 2016


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/01/22/voters-vote-non-voters-dont-why-is-this-so-hard-for-pollsters/
"Voters vote, non-voters don't. Why is this so hard for pollsters?"
Todd Rogers and Adan Acevedo, Jan. 22, 2016
"Across seven pre-election surveys, over three elections, including
more than 31,000 total survey respondents, Masa Aida (Civis Analytics)
and Todd Rogers (one of this piece's authors) found that many
self-predicted voters do not show up to the polls ('flake-out') — and
that many self-predicted non-voters do go vote ('flake-in')."

"Flake-out" and "flake-in" appeared earlier in:

https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?Id=929
"Vote Self-Prediction Hardly Predicts Who Will Vote, And Is
(Misleadingly) Unbiased"
Harvard Kennedy School, Faculty Research Working Paper Series
Todd Rogers and Masa Aida, April 2013

The paper asserts, "This is the first robust measurement of flake-in."

--bgz

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The American Dialect Society - http://www.americandialect.org


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