[Ads-l] here's a bit of a surprise

Ben Zimmer bgzimmer at GMAIL.COM
Thu Jun 7 14:20:16 EDT 2018


See also "generic (congressional) ballot" -- how the parties fare when poll
respondents are asked whether they would vote for a Republican or Democrat
in the coming election (it's generic because no candidates are specified).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/31/politics/2018-generic-ballot-independents/index.html


On Thu, Jun 7, 2018 at 1:28 PM, David K. Barnhart <dbarnhart at highlands.com>
wrote:

>
>
> Earlier this morning I heard a commentator on the radio refer to _generic
> polling_ and that he wasn't sure what that meant.  In light of his
> uncertainty, I did some digging and found enough to produce the following:
> ..
>
>
>
> generic poll, {w}  a survey of public opinion concerning the popularity
> among the electorate of candidates, issues, etc., especially based upon
> poliitical party affiliations.  Standard (used in contexts dealing
> especially with U.S. politics; frequent?)
>
>
>
> Gallup's "generic poll", which asks how people will vote in the
> congressional race, shows the Democrats ahead 52-42. This margin has held
> steady since last month's Democratic convention. Martin Walker, "US
> Election: Why Clinton Could Lose By Winning In The Parallel Race For
> Congress; The fight may be on for the Democratic succession...," The
> Guardian [London] (Nexis), Sept. 20, 1996, p 10
>
>
>
> But Democrats are showing a resurgence that has more life that experts
> would
> have predicted even a few month ago.
>
> Several generic polls, which ask simply if a respondent will vote
> Democratic
> or Republican in the congressional races, are now showing wide leads for
> the
> Democrats. Republicans led those polls in 1994. Jeanne Cummings, "CAMPAIGN
> '96; House-keeping battle; Down to the wire: GOP is fighting to retain the
> power of its new-found majority," The Atlanta Journal and Constitution
> (Nexis), Oct. 20, 1996, p 19A
>
>
>
> When asked about a generic Democrat-Republican matchup, voters gave
> Democratic candidates an 11 percent lead over Republicans. Nationally, the
> average of generic polls is closer to 6.5 percent, according to Real Clear
> Politics. Nicole Radzievich and Emily Opilo, "Survey shows Dems leading in
> 7th District," The Morning Call [Allentown, Penn.] (Nexis), May 6, 2018, p
> 1
>
>
>
> [1982]  Composite (compound): formed from generic (OED: 1676), meaning "not
> specific," + poll (eOED: 1902), meaning "A survey of public opinion ..."
>
>
>
> generic polling, (common): Once these obstacles had been cleared, internal
> party polling was depressing.
>
> As one senior Liberal put it, while generic polling showed the Coalition
> had
> a shot at winning in March, "it was wrecked when Collins's name was
> attached
> to it". Tracy Sutherland, "Plotter's sacrifice: personal loyalty for a team
> victory," The Australian (Nexis), Dec. 7, 1998, p 1
>
>
>
> Colorado political analyst Floyd Ciruli said that in recent elections in
> which control of Congress changed hands, generic polling showed that party
> as a heavy favorite. The fact this year's numbers are so close is a good
> sign for those already in office, he said. Sara Burnett and Kurtis Lee,
> "Three races make Colorado a congressional battleground," The Denver Post
> (Nexis), July 18, 2012, p 1A
>
>
>
> A shift of a Democratic majority in the House seems more and more likely,
> as
> there has been a jump in Democrats' lead in generic polling.  Jennifer
> Rubin, "GOP scrables to save seats as numbers fall," The Chronicle-Telegram
> [Elyria, Ohio] (NewspaperArchive.com), Aug. 4, 2017, p C9
>
>
>

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