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<font size=3>Ben,<br><br>
Why do you compare to some base at time X, rather than to a constant
50%? That is, a candidate is underwater if his favorable rating is
under 50% (or, if indifferent pollees are included, less than his
favorable rating)?<br><br>
I think the use of prior, or base, times is only to show changes over
time, not to assert whether a candidate is or is not under water
now. The term is used only in the headline and the lead sentence of
the second paragraph -- "All four Republican contenders remain
underwater in overall favorability in the latest ABC News/Washington Post
poll, marking the difficulties the survivor may face against Barack
Obama."<br><br>
And if some prior base is intended, it will be important whether that is
a high tide, a neap tide, or a mean sea level.<br><br>
Joel<br><br>
At 3/7/2012 02:46 AM, Benjamin Barrett wrote:<br>
<blockquote type=cite class=cite cite="">This is an interesting
development. You take the values at time X as the base and then refer to
current values as underwater if they are less than the base. (The poll
report is at
<a href="http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1127a19FavorabilityNo19.pdf" eudora="autourl">
http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1127a19FavorabilityNo19.pdf</a>,
page 2.)<br><br>
What seems insipid about this is that the base values are at arbitrary
points in time. This poll is using base values between January 8 and
February 26 for the different candidates.<br><br>
A great expression if you're a political (or economic) spinner, I
suppose.<br><br>
Benjamin Barrett<br>
Seattle, WA<br><br>
On Mar 6, 2012, at 11:35 PM, Victor Steinbok wrote:<br><br>
> I've posted on this before, but mostly in reference to market
value.<br>
> However, the usage of the term is spreading rapidly in reference
to<br>
> political approval rates for candidates, issues, measures, etc.<br>
> <br>
>
<a href="http://goo.gl/SWzMa" eudora="autourl">http://goo.gl/SWzMa</a><br>
>> All four Republican contenders remain underwater in overall<br>
>> favorability in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll,
marking the<br>
>> difficulties the survivor may face against Barack Obama.
More<br>
>> Americans hold negative than positive views of Romney by a
10-point<br>
>> margin, Rick Santorum by 8 points, Ron Paul by 9 points and
Newt<br>
>> Gingrich by a whopping 33 points.<br><br>
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