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<p>Obrigado, Sidi, pela dica. O artigo da Nature vem dando o que falar na<br>
lista de tipologia lingüística (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/lingtyp">http://tinyurl.com/lingtyp</a>). A<br>
maioria dos comentários são desfavoráveis; um dos mais equilibrados,<br>
na minha opinião, é o de Bill Croft (que tomo a liberdade de<br>
transcrever abaixo).<br>
<br>
Uma outra matéria sobre o assunto foi publicada na revista Wired<br>
(<a href="http://vbly.us/wired">http://vbly.us/wired</a>). Naturalmente, aqui se aplicam os "disclaimers"<br>
tradicionais sobre a imprensa (que tende a exagerar o caráter<br>
novidadeiro das conclusões científicas -- em lingüística,<br>
especialmente se levam a sugestões de que Chomsky estaria equivocado).<br>
<br>
Abraços,<br>
<br>
Eduardo<br>
<br>
---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>
From: Bill Croft <<a href="mailto:wcroft%40unm.edu">wcroft@unm.edu</a>><br>
Date: Fri, Apr 15, 2011 at 11:59 AM<br>
Subject: Re: Dunn et al. on word order typology in "Nature"<br>
To: <a href="mailto:LINGTYP%40listserv.linguistlist.org">LINGTYP@listserv.linguistlist.org</a><br>
<br>
We should not lose sight of what is good in Dunn et al.'s Nature<br>
article. Many typologists, starting with Greenberg, have argued that<br>
synchronic language universals are really just manifestations of<br>
diachronic universals. The state-process model used by Dunn et al.<br>
(see p. 5 of their supplementary materials) has been used by Greenberg<br>
(1978) and Maslova (2000). Dunn et al.'s method (and also Maslova's)<br>
allows us to take a major problem with sampling - historical<br>
dependence - and exploit it to uncover valid language universals.<br>
Using quantitative and statistical techniques will allow us to make<br>
more precise generalizations and assign a degree of goodness of fit to<br>
our theoretical models of typological universals.<br>
<br>
Nevertheless, like others here, I am unconvinced of the results due to<br>
problems with the way they apply the method. Dunn et al.'s analysis<br>
(pp. 5-6 of the supplementary materials) treats two models as mutually<br>
exclusive: an "independent" model, in which a word order switches<br>
independently of other orders, possibly with a weighted preference for<br>
one order; and a "dependent" model, in which two word orders are<br>
linked and change together. These competing models are tested against<br>
each phylogeny (family tree), with one or the other winning out<br>
(*very* crudely, if branches with linked changes outnumber branches<br>
with single order changes, then the test takes the word-order<br>
correlation as justified for the tree). But this does not test the<br>
model that most typologists assume; at best it tests the<br>
oversimplified model of Theo Vennemann and Winfrid Lehmann from the<br>
1970s, which reduced the diversity of word order in the world's<br>
languages to just two types, VO and OV. (This is also basically the<br>
generative head-ordering parameter.) But from Greenberg's original<br>
paper (Greenberg 1966) onwards, most typologists have adopted a model<br>
in which both single-order preferences (Greenberg's 'dominance') and<br>
linkages (Greenberg's 'harmony') compete with each other and jointly<br>
determine patterns of word order variation, as Matthew noted in his<br>
last post.<br>
<br>
This can be demonstrated statistically: Justeson and Stephens (1990)<br>
did a log-linear analysis on a large synchronic language sample and<br>
showed that the best-fit model included both dominance and harmony<br>
factors. I presume there is a dynamic equivalent of log-linear<br>
analysis that could be used to test the model that most typologists<br>
accept.<br>
<br>
Regarding the issue of lineage-specific vs. universal patterns: Keith<br>
Poole and I had to deal with a similar question in using<br>
multidimensional scaling to find universals of grammatical categories<br>
(Croft and Poole 2008). There, the contrast was between<br>
language-specific MDS models (as used, for example, by Barbara Malt<br>
and her colleagues) and crosslinguistic MDS models. We argued that if<br>
the regularities were culture-specific, then mixing in languages with<br>
culturally-specific category structures would reduce the goodness of<br>
fit of the MDS model; but if the regularities were crosslinguistic<br>
(i.e. universal), then mixing together languages would improve the<br>
goodness of fit of the model. (We found the latter.) The same<br>
presumably would apply for word order patterns, mutatis mutandis. But<br>
here the problem with the Dunn et al. result is that they test only<br>
four lineages, representing only 7.5% of language genera (low-level<br>
language families) in the world; the other 92.5% of language genera<br>
occur in other lineages. Also, for many of the pairwise correlations<br>
they test, including the two illustrated in their article, Bantu is<br>
too shallow a family to exhibit any variation; and for the two<br>
illustrated in their article, even in the other families very few<br>
branches undergo a word order shift. So the empirical sample, though<br>
well distributed geographically, is very small and has few independent<br>
changes to evaluate. And here we hit a problem that all researchers on<br>
language universals hit: our uncertainty about language phylogeny in<br>
most parts of the world, especially for deeper families, but even for<br>
subgrouping in accepted families. In this latter area, quantitative<br>
methods are also being applied; but that is another story.<br>
<br>
I think typologists should welcome this effort to marry phylogeny and<br>
typology, even if we remain unconvinced of the particular result in<br>
this paper.<br>
<br>
Bill<br>
<br>
Croft, William and Keith T. Poole. 2008. Inferring universals from<br>
grammatical variation: multidimensional scaling for typological<br>
analysis. Theoretical Linguistics 34.1-37.<br>
<br>
Greenberg, Joseph H. 1966. Some universals of grammar with particular<br>
reference to the order of meaningful elements. Universals of Grammar,<br>
ed.<br>
<br>
Joseph H. Greenberg, 2nd edition, 73-113. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press<br>
<br>
Greenberg, Joseph H. 1978. Diachrony, synchrony and language<br>
universals. Universals of Human Language, Vol. 1: Method and Theory,<br>
ed. Joseph H.<br>
<br>
Greenberg, Charles A. Ferguson and Edith A. Moravcsik, 61-92.<br>
Stanford: Stanford University Press.<br>
<br>
Maslova, Elena. 2000. A dynamic approach to the verification of<br>
distributional universals. Linguistic Typology 4.307-33.<br>
</p>
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