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<p>Hi!<br>
The following link could also be of interest<br>
<br>
<a href="http://www.stavgard.com/romaniron/goterna_/default.htm">http://www.stavgard<wbr>.com/romaniron/<wbr>goterna_/<wbr>default.htm</a><br>
<br>
Tore<br>
<br>
On Jan 16, 2007, at 9:17 PM, Michael Erwin wrote:<br>
<br>
> - Ammianus doesn't try to estimate the migration's size; Eunapius<br>
> estimates 200,000; I don't know the context and don't know whether<br>
> this is the negotiated crossing alone.<br>
><br>
> - Treadgold estimates an imperial population of 16,500,000. This<br>
> implies an average provincial population around 300,000.<br>
><br>
> - Moesia Secunda is the most likely settlement area, because (1) it<br>
> borders on Thervingia (2) it has similar climate and soil types to<br>
> Thervingia (3) it has fewer cities, and more land, than Scythia<br>
> Minor. This suggests lower population density and more available<br>
> farmland. (4) The Moesian Goths had already settled in the Moesia<br>
> Secunda.<br>
><br>
> - Many refugee populations are disproportionately composed of women<br>
> and children. For instance the refugees from the last Balkan wars<br>
> were about 65% female. Below about 100,000 people, I'd assume such<br>
> demographics [e.g. for the Vandals]; above about 100,000 people I'd<br>
> assume more-or-less balanced demographics.<br>
><br>
> - When the revolt broke out, the rebels had no existing political<br>
> infrastructure. We might point to the personal followings of certain<br>
> leaders, the Roman military administration, or the various church<br>
> organizations, but it's doubtful that the middle and latter would<br>
> facilitate an armed rebellion (though the last could provide a<br>
> diplomatic go-between and various non-military stuff).<br>
><br>
> - Very few rebellions can mobilize more than 3% of the population in<br>
> the war effort. That 3% includes militia and support units. The<br>
> Yugoslav Partisans may have reached 5% in early 1945. The Chinese<br>
> Communist Party probably reached 3% in Yenan in mid-1940, depending<br>
> on local population estimates. The American Revolution peaked at<br>
> about 3% for the rebels and somewhat less for the loyalists, but both<br>
> sides had decades-old political infrastructure and the administration<br>
> to raise regular armies.<br>
><br>
> - 3% would imply 6,000 fighters and militia out of 200,000 people.<br>
> Local rebels could swell these numbers, but would need to defend<br>
> their territory, and might contribute very little to the deployable<br>
> strength. Trans-Danubian groups could swell these numbers, but there<br>
> were probably as many pro-Athanaric people as pro-Fritigern people<br>
> still in Thervingia.<br>
><br>
> <br>
<br>
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]<br>
<br>
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