<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/html4/strict.dtd">
<html>
<head>
</head>
<!-- Network content -->
<body style="background-color: #ffffff;">
<!--~-|**|PrettyHtmlStartT|**|-~-->
<div id="ygrp-mlmsg" style="width:655px; position:relative;">
<div id="ygrp-msg" style="width: 490px; padding: 0 15px 0 0; float:left; z-index:1;">
<!--~-|**|PrettyHtmlEndT|**|-~-->
<div id="ygrp-text">
<p>- Ammianus doesn't try to estimate the migration's size; Eunapius <br>
estimates 200,000; I don't know the context and don't know whether <br>
this is the negotiated crossing alone.<br>
<br>
- Treadgold estimates an imperial population of 16,500,000. This <br>
implies an average provincial population around 300,000.<br>
<br>
- Moesia Secunda is the most likely settlement area, because (1) it <br>
borders on Thervingia (2) it has similar climate and soil types to <br>
Thervingia (3) it has fewer cities, and more land, than Scythia <br>
Minor. This suggests lower population density and more available <br>
farmland. (4) The Moesian Goths had already settled in the Moesia <br>
Secunda.<br>
<br>
- Many refugee populations are disproportionately composed of women <br>
and children. For instance the refugees from the last Balkan wars <br>
were about 65% female. Below about 100,000 people, I'd assume such <br>
demographics [e.g. for the Vandals]; above about 100,000 people I'd <br>
assume more-or-less balanced demographics.<br>
<br>
- When the revolt broke out, the rebels had no existing political <br>
infrastructure. We might point to the personal followings of certain <br>
leaders, the Roman military administration, or the various church <br>
organizations, but it's doubtful that the middle and latter would <br>
facilitate an armed rebellion (though the last could provide a <br>
diplomatic go-between and various non-military stuff).<br>
<br>
- Very few rebellions can mobilize more than 3% of the population in <br>
the war effort. That 3% includes militia and support units. The <br>
Yugoslav Partisans may have reached 5% in early 1945. The Chinese <br>
Communist Party probably reached 3% in Yenan in mid-1940, depending <br>
on local population estimates. The American Revolution peaked at <br>
about 3% for the rebels and somewhat less for the loyalists, but both <br>
sides had decades-old political infrastructure and the administration <br>
to raise regular armies.<br>
<br>
- 3% would imply 6,000 fighters and militia out of 200,000 people. <br>
Local rebels could swell these numbers, but would need to defend <br>
their territory, and might contribute very little to the deployable <br>
strength. Trans-Danubian groups could swell these numbers, but there <br>
were probably as many pro-Athanaric people as pro-Fritigern people <br>
still in Thervingia.<br>
</p>
</div>
<!--~-|**|PrettyHtmlStart|**|-~-->
<span width="1" style="color: white;">__._,_.___</span>
<!-- Start the section with Message In topic -->
<div id="ygrp-actbar">
<span class="left">
<a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gothic-l/message/9372;_ylc=X3oDMTM0bzU1dmdtBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BG1zZ0lkAzkzNzIEc2VjA2Z0cgRzbGsDdnRwYwRzdGltZQMxMTY4OTc4NDEzBHRwY0lkAzkzNzI-">
Messages in this topic </a> (<span class="bld">1</span>)
</span>
<a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gothic-l/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJwOTU4NTRiBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BG1zZ0lkAzkzNzIEc2VjA2Z0cgRzbGsDcnBseQRzdGltZQMxMTY4OTc4NDEz?act=reply&messageNum=9372">
<span class="bld">
Reply </span> (via web post)
</a> |
<a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gothic-l/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJlMDVoZDRiBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA250cGMEc3RpbWUDMTE2ODk3ODQxMw--" class="bld">
Start a new topic </a>
</div>
<!------- Start Nav Bar ------>
<!-- |**|begin egp html banner|**| -->
<div id="ygrp-vitnav">
<a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gothic-l/messages;_ylc=X3oDMTJlbG8wNWdkBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA21zZ3MEc3RpbWUDMTE2ODk3ODQxMw--">Messages</a>
| <a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gothic-l/members;_ylc=X3oDMTJlbWk2Z2QyBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA21icnMEc3RpbWUDMTE2ODk3ODQxMw--">Members</a>
</div>
<!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| -->
<!-- Do not have place to put it yet -->
<div id="ygrp-grft">
<!-- |**|begin egp html banner|**| -->
You are a member of the Gothic-L list. To unsubscribe, send a blank email to <gothic-l-unsubscribe@egroups.com>.
<!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| -->
</div>
<!-- yahoo logo -->
<!-- |**|begin egp html banner|**| -->
<div id="ygrp-ft">
<a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/;_ylc=X3oDMTJkZHZyc2M5BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2dmcARzdGltZQMxMTY4OTc4NDEz">
<img src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/yg/img/logo/ma_grp_160.gif" height="15" width="106" border="0" alt="Yahoo! Groups"></a> <br>
<a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gothic-l/join;_ylc=X3oDMTJmZW04bzg3BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3N0bmdzBHN0aW1lAzExNjg5Nzg0MTM-">Change settings via the Web</a> (Yahoo! ID required) <br>
Change settings via email: <a href="mailto:gothic-l-digest@yahoogroups.com?subject=Email Delivery: Digest">Switch delivery to Daily Digest</a> | <a href = "mailto:gothic-l-traditional@yahoogroups.com?subject=Change Delivery Format: Traditional">Switch format to Traditional</a> <br>
<a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gothic-l;_ylc=X3oDMTJkYThwcG4xBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2hwZgRzdGltZQMxMTY4OTc4NDEz">
Visit Your Group
</a> |
<a href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/">
Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use </a> |
<a href="mailto:gothic-l-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com?subject=">
Unsubscribe </a>
</div> <!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| -->
</div> <!-- ygrp-msg -->
<!-- Sponsor -->
<!-- |**|begin egp html banner|**| -->
<div id="ygrp-sponsor" style="width:140px;float: left; clear: none; margin-left: 5px; background:white; margin-bottom:25px ;position:absolute; top:0; right: 0;">
<!-- Network content -->
<!-- Start vitality -->
<div id="ygrp-vital">
<div id="vithd">Recent Activity</div>
<ul style="list-style-type:none; padding: 0; margin: 2px 0;">
<li style="clear: both;">
<div class="ct" style="float: right;"><span style="display:none"> </span>2</div>
<div class="cat"><a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gothic-l/members;_ylc=X3oDMTJmMmx1ZTlvBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BHNlYwN2dGwEc2xrA3ZtYnJzBHN0aW1lAzExNjg5Nzg0MTM-">New Members</a></div>
</li>
</ul>
<a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gothic-l;_ylc=X3oDMTJlaXJnaWJyBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEwMjA1OTgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1NzM5MjA2BHNlYwN2dGwEc2xrA3ZnaHAEc3RpbWUDMTE2ODk3ODQxMw--">
Visit Your Group </a>
</div>
<!-- Network content -->
<div id="nc">
<div class="ad">
<div id="hd1">Give Back</div>
<p><a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylc=X3oDMTJtNWhlZzU1BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BF9wAzEEZ3JwSWQDMTAyMDU5OARncnBzcElkAzE3MDU3MzkyMDYEc2VjA25jbW9kBHNsawNicmFuZARzdGltZQMxMTY4OTc4NDEz;_ylg=1/SIG=11314uv3k/**http%3a//brand.yahoo.com/forgood">Yahoo! for Good</a></p>
<p>Get inspired</p>
<p>by a good cause.</p>
</div>
<div class="ad">
<div id="hd1">Y! Toolbar</div>
<p><a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylc=X3oDMTJva3Nia3A5BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BF9wAzIEZ3JwSWQDMTAyMDU5OARncnBzcElkAzE3MDU3MzkyMDYEc2VjA25jbW9kBHNsawN0b29sYmFyBHN0aW1lAzExNjg5Nzg0MTM-;_ylg=1/SIG=11c6dvmk9/**http%3a//toolbar.yahoo.com/%3f.cpdl=ygrps">Get it Free!</a></p>
<p>easy 1-click access</p>
<p>to your groups.</p>
</div>
<div class="ad">
<div id="hd1">Yahoo! Groups</div>
<p><a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/start;_ylc=X3oDMTJvaWp0ZnNzBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BF9wAzMEZ3JwSWQDMTAyMDU5OARncnBzcElkAzE3MDU3MzkyMDYEc2VjA25jbW9kBHNsawNncm91cHMyBHN0aW1lAzExNjg5Nzg0MTM-">Start a group</a></p>
<p>in 3 easy steps.</p>
<p>Connect with others.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div> <!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| -->
<div style="clear:both; color: #FFF; font-size:1px;">.</div>
</div> <img src="http://geo.yahoo.com/serv?s=97359714/grpId=1020598/grpspId=1705739206/msgId=9372/stime=1168978413/nc1=1/nc2=2/nc3=3" width="1" height="1"> <br>
<span style="color: white;">__,_._,___</span>
<!--~-|**|PrettyHtmlEnd|**|-~-->
</body>
<!--~-|**|PrettyHtmlStart|**|-~-->
<head>
<style type="text/css">
<!--
#ygrp-mlmsg {font-size:13px; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif;*font-size:small;*font:x-small;}
#ygrp-mlmsg table {font-size:inherit;font:100%;}
#ygrp-mlmsg select, input, textarea {font:99% arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif;}
#ygrp-mlmsg pre, code {font:115% monospace;*font-size:100%;}
#ygrp-mlmsg * {line-height:1.22em;}
#ygrp-text{
font-family: Georgia;
}
#ygrp-text p{
margin: 0 0 1em 0;
}
#ygrp-tpmsgs{
font-family: Arial;
clear: both;
}
#ygrp-vitnav{
padding-top: 10px;
font-family: Verdana;
font-size: 77%;
margin: 0;
}
#ygrp-vitnav a{
padding: 0 1px;
}
#ygrp-actbar{
clear: both;
margin: 25px 0;
white-space:nowrap;
color: #666;
text-align: right;
}
#ygrp-actbar .left{
float: left;
white-space:nowrap;
}
.bld{font-weight:bold;}
#ygrp-grft{
font-family: Verdana;
font-size: 77%;
padding: 15px 0;
}
#ygrp-ft{
font-family: verdana;
font-size: 77%;
border-top: 1px solid #666;
padding: 5px 0;
}
#ygrp-mlmsg #logo{
padding-bottom: 10px;
}
#ygrp-vital{
background-color: #e0ecee;
margin-bottom: 20px;
padding: 2px 0 8px 8px;
}
#ygrp-vital #vithd{
font-size: 77%;
font-family: Verdana;
font-weight: bold;
color: #333;
text-transform: uppercase;
}
#ygrp-vital ul{
padding: 0;
margin: 2px 0;
}
#ygrp-vital ul li{
list-style-type: none;
clear: both;
border: 1px solid #e0ecee;
}
#ygrp-vital ul li .ct{
font-weight: bold;
color: #ff7900;
float: right;
width: 2em;
text-align:right;
padding-right: .5em;
}
#ygrp-vital ul li .cat{
font-weight: bold;
}
#ygrp-vital a {
text-decoration: none;
}
#ygrp-vital a:hover{
text-decoration: underline;
}
#ygrp-sponsor #hd{
color: #999;
font-size: 77%;
}
#ygrp-sponsor #ov{
padding: 6px 13px;
background-color: #e0ecee;
margin-bottom: 20px;
}
#ygrp-sponsor #ov ul{
padding: 0 0 0 8px;
margin: 0;
}
#ygrp-sponsor #ov li{
list-style-type: square;
padding: 6px 0;
font-size: 77%;
}
#ygrp-sponsor #ov li a{
text-decoration: none;
font-size: 130%;
}
#ygrp-sponsor #nc {
background-color: #eee;
margin-bottom: 20px;
padding: 0 8px;
}
#ygrp-sponsor .ad{
padding: 8px 0;
}
#ygrp-sponsor .ad #hd1{
font-family: Arial;
font-weight: bold;
color: #628c2a;
font-size: 100%;
line-height: 122%;
}
#ygrp-sponsor .ad a{
text-decoration: none;
}
#ygrp-sponsor .ad a:hover{
text-decoration: underline;
}
#ygrp-sponsor .ad p{
margin: 0;
}
o {font-size: 0; }
.MsoNormal {
margin: 0 0 0 0;
}
#ygrp-text tt{
font-size: 120%;
}
blockquote{margin: 0 0 0 4px;}
.replbq {margin:4}
-->
</style>
</head>
<!--~-|**|PrettyHtmlEnd|**|-~-->
</html><!--End group email -->