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<DIV>I don’t think there’s anything wrong with earlier populations exceeding
later ones, and include that in my comment. It happens all the time. The
population of Rome itself is said to have crashed from about a million in the
early 4th century to a few hundred thousand in the early 5th century. Many major
US cities have had their populations halved since the 1950s-60s. Parts of
northern Germany still have fewer people than they did prior to the 30 Years’
War that ended in 1648.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>What I doubt is that, if a population of 1.5 million is accurate for 1st C
BC, doubling that to 3 million by... when, exactly?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>That’s the second doubt. We’re referring to Roman-age European populations
as if that were a static period. Even Roman Britain, we have nearly 400 years.
So when exactly is the 3 million figure for? 100 AD? 200 AD? 300 AD? how many
were left after 410 when the Romans pulled out?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I also said that I had doubts about research from before the mid-late 1990s
for reasons already mentioned. To which I will add the use of highly
sophisticated satellite systems with ground-penetrating capabilities and
resolutions on the m3 level (much better, for the security and military
organizations of the nations controlling them). New sites are being found all
over the world, and it is looking like the claims of very high populations in
the Amazon basin prior to European contact were closer to right than those who
claimed it was a green wasteland. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I’m skeptical about data published in 1996, gathered earlier. We are
learning that traditional archaeology and historiography can be critical at the
local level, but very poorly calibrated at the regional or continental level.
And knowledge of the geographic and human history of the North Sea region has
increased vastly in this century, those portions currently dry ground and those
currently submerged. There are thousands of pages of extremely finely detailed
research data published in the Netherlands. That is a place where climate and
demography have clashed for millennia, moreso than just about anywhere else in
Europe. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I have no particular intellectual or otherwise investment in any particular
population figures for Roman Britain or anywhere else. 3 million is possible.
But so is 2 million. So is a big dip from the 1.5 million around invasion time
to 1 million with a rise over the next few centuries from there to 3 million
around the end of the 2ndC AD with a decline to 1 million by the early
4thC.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>But aside from Britain’s own population, my main concern was using Roman
Britain population estimates as a guide for population estimates anywhere but
Roman Britain. But especially places that are colder, larger, and more subject
to population transitions on the scale of even years much less centuries.
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