How the next billion Internet users will reshape the Internet (especially linguistically)

[Harold Schiffman]

How the next billion will reshape the Internet
 TheStar.com - Business - How the next billion will reshape the Internet

December 10, 2007
Michael Geist

Last month hundreds of people descended on Rio de Janiero, Brazil, for
the second annual Internet Governance Forum. Sponsored by the United
Nations, the IGF attracted politicians, business leaders,
technologists, civil society representatives and others interested in
the global issues facing the Internet. While media coverage of the
forum focused primarily on domain name issues, those concerns were
overshadowed by a far more important and challenging question – what
will the next billion Internet users mean to the Internet itself? With
more than a billion Internet users worldwide, doubling that number –
which should happen within the next decade – will obviously have a
profound effect on the network, technology, the computer software
industry, access to knowledge and our environment.

Understanding the effect of another billion Internet users starts with
considering the origin of those users. Although some will reside in
North America, Europe and other developed countries that close their
domestic digital divides, the majority of the growth will undoubtedly
come from the developing world. China is already the second largest
Internet-using country in the world and will likely surpass the United
States (the current leader) within the next year or two, adding 250
million Internet users over the next decade.
Countries such as India and Brazil should add another 200 million
Internet users, while the fastest rate of growth is likely to come
from Africa, which is starting from a much smaller base.

The next billion will differ in more ways than just geography. Most
new Internet users will not speak English as their first language,
which should lead to increased pressure to accommodate different
languages within the domain name system. Moreover, many new Internet
users will have different cultural and societal views on hot-button
issues such as online free speech, privacy, and copyright. As they
demand a voice in global policy making, those users will help shift
the policy debate. The next billion may also use different technology
to access the Internet. The recent introduction of the XO laptop –
previously known as the $100 laptop – demonstrates how the developing
world has different requirements and how the technology industry will
have to adapt to those changing environments. Indeed, flashy, high-end
laptops with large screens, fast DVD players and enormous hard drives
may give way to devices that are energy efficient, sturdier and better
suited to users with varying levels of literacy.

The operating systems and software installed on those machines may
also be different. Microsoft and Apple may have been the preferred
choice for most of the first billion, but the next billion is far more
likely to use open source software alternatives that are free and
offer the chance for local customization. Not only will the devices be
different, but the next billion will employ alternate modes to access
the Internet. Widespread broadband may be too expensive to install in
some developing communities, leading to greater reliance on wireless
and satellite-based connectivity. Those users may use mobile devices
as their primary way to connect to the Internet, experiencing slower
speeds of access and forcing e-commerce companies to adapt to a
changing marketplace.

The message of the Internet Governance Forum was that the next billion
is an enormously positive story – a tale of the improving economic
condition that will allow for much broader participation in the
communication, culture and commercial opportunities most Canadians now
take for granted.

As we welcome the next billion, we must recognize that they will do
more than just use the Internet. They will help reshape it in their
own image and with their own values, languages and cultures.




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Michael Geist holds the Canada Research Chair in Internet and
E-commerce Law at the University of Ottawa, Faculty of Law. He can
reached at mgeist at uottawa.ca or online at www.michaelgeist.ca

 http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/284021
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