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<h1>3 ways Spain will tackle its Catalan problem</h1>
<p class="">Let them vote, give them more autonomy — or throw the book at them.</p>
By <p class=""><span class=""><a rel="author" class="" href="http://www.politico.eu/author/diego-torres/">Diego Torres</a></span></p>
<p class="">11/9/15, 7:31 PM CET</p>
<p class="">Updated 11/10/15, 1:35 PM CET</p>
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<p style="">MADRID — A new phase in Spanish politics began Monday
as the Parliament of Catalonia approved a roadmap for secession
that calls for lawmakers to start building independent institutions and
disobey the country’s Constitutional Court.</p>
<p style=""><span style="line-height:1.5">The resolution passed with
the support of acting president Artur Mas’ coalition Junts pel Sí
(Together for Yes) and the leftist CUP (Popular Unity Candidacy). The
motion marks “the beginning of the creation process of an independent
Catalan state in the form of a republic.”</span></p><div class=""><div id="div-gpt-ad-Rectangle-4" class="">
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<p><span style="line-height:1.5">Catalonia, the north-eastern region
of Spain, which has its own language and culture, represents 16 percent
of the population and 19 percent of Spain’s economic output.</span></p>
<p>Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy lost no time in announcing that
he will appeal Wednesday to the Constitutional Court. “This is the first
step and would like it to be the last,” he warned, “but it does not
depend on those of us who defend democracy.”</p>
<p>Here are three ways that Spain will try to quell the Catalan rebellion:</p>
<h3>1. Law and Order</h3>
<p>The sovereignty of a united Spain is one of the core principles of
the 1978 Constitution, which sealed the end of four decades of
dictatorship under Francisco Franco. It was ratified in a referendum by a
majority of Spanish and Catalan citizens. Most political parties share
the view, including Rajoy’s Popular Party, Pedro Sánchez’s main
opposition Socialists and Albert Rivera’s fast-growing centrist movement
<em>Ciudadanos</em> (Citizens).</p>
<p>From their vantage point, the response to the independence bid should
be simple: Apply the law of the land. The state will not hesitate to
use all the political and legal means to defend Spain’s sovereignty,
Rajoy said Monday.</p>
<p>The Constitutional Court will almost certainly declare the resolution
illegal. However, since the pro-independence declaration vows that the
regional parliament will disobey the tribunal’s decision and keep on
working for the creation of a Catalan republic, things are less clear
afterwards.</p>
<p>Rajoy says his response will be “cautious and proportionate.”
Interior Minister Jorge Fernández Díaz has ruled out sending a police
force to take the streets of Barcelona, saying: “We are not as silly as
they [the pro-independence camp] think.”</p>
<p>However, Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro warns that the central
government won’t finance the “pro-independence caprices” of any regional
government, suggesting that he might cut transfers to the Catalan
government.</p>
<p>Madrid may prefer the option of putting pressure on separatist
leaders rather than taking broader measures against the Catalan
population at large. The Constitutional Court could bar elected
officials who disobey its resolutions, such as Mas (if he gets a new
term) or Carme Forcadell, president of the legislative assembly that
took Monday’s vote. Criminal charges could follow for specific acts of
disobedience and there could even charges of sedition.</p>
<p>As a last resort, the central government, with the approval of the
Senate, could take control of the regional police or even suspend
Catalan autonomy altogether.</p><div class=""><ul class=""><li class=""><div class=""><a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-independence-spain-artur-mas/"><img src="http://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GettyImages-490330390-90x60.jpg" class="" alt="From left to right: Former President of the Catalan National Assembly Carme Forcadell, President of Catalonia Artur Mas, Junts pel Si leader Raul Romeva and Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya leader Oriol Junqueras celebrate their election victory" height="60" width="90"></a></div><div class=""><p class=""><a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-independence-spain-artur-mas/">Also On Politico</a></p><h3><a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-independence-spain-artur-mas/">Catalan parliament votes to break with Spain</a></h3><p class=""><span class=""><a rel="author" class="" href="http://www.politico.eu/author/hans-joachim-von-der-burchard/">Hans von der Burchard</a></span></p></div></li></ul></div>
<h3>2. Give them what they want (at least some of it)</h3>
<p>The main Spanish and Catalan political forces could open negotiations.</p>
<p>This strategy, favored by the Socialists and most of the left, is
based on two assumptions: First, the support for independence is
tactical, not ideological. They want leverage in negotiations with the
central government and could be convinced by the right offer. Polls
suggest most Catalans would prefer to negotiate a better autonomous
government rather than continue pushing for secession.</p>
<p>The second assumption is that one of the key factors behind the
growth of separatism, apart from the economic crisis, has been a lack of
flexibility on the part of Rajoy’s government. Socialist leader Sánchez
leveled the criticism this past weekend. He said Spanish law allowed
for reform, and that “we know the majority of Catalans want neither
immobility nor a breakup.”</p>
<p>The Socialists have long defended a constitutional reform to increase
Catalan autonomy. Such reforms would need to address at least two of
the secessionists’ main complaints: money and culture. <em>Espanya ens roba</em>
(Spain steals from us) has been one of the pro-independence camp’s main
messages for the past five years, as well as neglect of the Catalan
language in Spain and the EU.</p>
<p>Three of Spain’s four biggest parties — the Socialists, Ciudadanos
and the leftist Podemos — actively promote constitutional reform and
some conservatives accept it may be necessary. They do not agree,
however, that such a reform should lead to further decentralization of
the state.</p>
<p>An increase in Catalan autonomy might also mean more money for the
region and less money for the rest of Spain. Voters in other regions
would be very reluctant to support that. Even the Socialists could have
trouble selling this solution in their southern stronghold of Andalusia.</p>
<h3>3. Let them vote (and then we’ll see how to manage it)</h3>
<p>This view holds that Spain is a country composed of different nations
with the right to self-determination. A binding referendum should be
organized and national political groups can then campaign to convince
the Catalans to remain in Spain.</p>
<p>Only far-left Podemos and Izquierda Unida, as well as other regional
nationalists, hold this position. Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias has
stated that he, as a Madrid resident, has no right to tell the Catalans
what to do with their future. He argues that if Spain offers Catalonia a
new deal — with greater autonomy and acknowledgment of its national
status — a majority of Catalans would vote for continued union with
Spain.</p>
<p>“I want to seduce the Catalans, I want to tell them that there can be
a prime minister who listens to them; and I am convinced that, with
another attitude, most of them would like to remain in Spain,” Iglesias
said last week.</p>
<p>This strategy involves one major inherent risk: What if Iglesias is
wrong and Catalans do vote for secession? It would require
constitutional reform for Spain to legalize and recognize their
independence, and would need the approval of more than two thirds of a
legislative assembly and a nationwide referendum. Such consensus is
highly unlikely.</p>
<h6>Authors:</h6>
<div class="">
<dl class=""><dt class=""><span class=""><a rel="author" class="" href="http://www.politico.eu/author/diego-torres/">Diego Torres</a> </span></dt></dl>
<a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/3-ways-spain-will-tackle-its-catalan-problem-spanish-politics-artur-mas-independent-state/">http://www.politico.eu/article/3-ways-spain-will-tackle-its-catalan-problem-spanish-politics-artur-mas-independent-state/</a><br></div><br>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature">=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+<br><br> Harold F. Schiffman<br><br>Professor Emeritus of <br> Dravidian Linguistics and Culture <br>Dept. of South Asia Studies <br>University of Pennsylvania<br>Philadelphia, PA 19104-6305<br><br>Phone: (215) 898-7475<br>Fax: (215) 573-2138 <br><br>Email: <a href="mailto:haroldfs@gmail.com" target="_blank">haroldfs@gmail.com</a><br><a href="http://ccat.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/" target="_blank">http://ccat.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/</a> <br><br>-------------------------------------------------</div>
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