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<h1>This Is the End of ETA</h1> <aside class="gmail-post-meta">
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<li>By <strong> <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/author/Kevin Ivey">Kevin Ivey </a></strong></li>
<li>• July 17, 2018</li>
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<a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/author/Kevin Ivey">Kevin Ivey</a></strong>
<p>Kevin Ivey is the 2018 counterterrorism fellow at Young
Professionals in Foreign Policy (YPFP). He writes on international
defense and terrorism issue</p><span class="gmail-learn_auth"><a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/author/Kevin Ivey">.... Read more</a></span>
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</aside> <p><em>ETA’s demise provides lessons that challenge some popularly accepted counterterrorism maxims.</em></p>
<p>The dissolution of the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/02/europe/eta-spain-dissolution-intl/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">separatist group ETA</a> (Basque Country and Freedom), announced on May 2, was marked by celebration and expectation in <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/?s=spain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Spain</a>.
But for a terror group that killed over 850 people in a nearly 50-year
campaign of violence against the Spanish state, international
celebration of the announcement was measured. This mellow reaction is
perhaps less surprising when placed in the context of decreasing Basque
separatist violence resulting from sustained action by Spanish law
enforcement. Bucking trends that emphasize grievance and comprehensive
reconciliation, the Spanish state succeeded by refusing to deal with ETA
on its own terms, maintaining pressure even as the group demobilized,
and preserving its commitment to liberal democratic ideals.</p>
<p>Few watching the security situation in northern Spain would find
ETA’s demise very surprising. The group’s calls for armed action to
preserve Basque identity were increasingly irrelevant after the end of
Fransisco Franco’s dictatorship, which strived to establish a
pan-Spanish identity that threatened the Basque regional identity. After
Franco’s death in 1975, his efforts to <a href="https://scroll.in/article/875986/can-saving-a-language-help-a-community-under-threat-in-a-globalised-world" target="_blank" rel="noopener">enshrine</a>
Spanish as an artificial and universal language gave way to policies
that recognized the patchwork of groups that made up the republic.</p>
<p>Spain’s post-Franco language policy was not intended to be a
counterterrorism silver bullet, but it succeeded in diverting the wind
from the sails of a group that prioritized cultural survival in the face
of forced assimilation. While not a law enforcement tool per se, such
accommodation could ameliorate the concerns of those susceptible to the
message of existential ethnic conflict.</p>
<p>As Spain joined the democratic world order, potential political
obstacles to collaboration were sidelined and arguments based on Basque
marginalization — a key ETA claim — became harder to maintain. Embracing
multiculturalism alone did not defeat the group, but it was effective
at refuting at least part of the terrorist group’s foundational
narrative and showing that Basque language and culture could live
peacefully within the Spanish state. Spain succeeded without engaging
directly with ETA’s grievance narrative, despite counterterrorism
theory’s emphasis on development and inclusion as a panacea.</p>
<p>Even as ETA faded from view, <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/10/world/politics-diplomacy-world/catalonia-deal-like-basque-spain-accord-may-effective-expensive-antidote-secession/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tensions</a> between Basque Country and the rest of Spain have <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2017/09/29/economy/big-reason-catalonia-wants-secede-economic-richest-regions-in-spain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">continued</a>,
primarily driven by taxation, economic pressures and political
preferences. But rather than focusing on addressing every grievance with
its Basque citizens, the Spanish government succeeded in disrupting ETA
through a specific focus on arrests, raids and public pressure. While
post-Franco Spain has shown greater tolerance for regionalism, the state
remains unified and committed to democratic ideals.</p>
<p>Spain’s approach to countering ETA may seem counterintuitive at
first. Armed movements cement their identities in narratives that
highlight collective grievance as justification for action, violent or
otherwise. But while it would be foolish to diminish the suffering of
marginalized groups, engaging with armed groups on the level of their
own rhetoric also can be counterproductive.</p>
<p>Terrorist groups — especially those seeking to establish a new state —
often seek legitimacy by trying to portray their actions as equal to
that of their opponent, namely the state. Sitting across a table from a
terrorist leader in a formal setting can lend the appearance of
legitimacy to a group’s claim to be the sole representative of a
disenfranchised people. By agreeing to make concessions in return for a
cessation of attacks, the state can actually incentivize future
violence. At the same time, this might disincentivize members of the
same disenfranchised group to resolve their grievances through civil
society.</p>
<div style="float:left;margin:0px 10px 5px 0px"></div>
<p>What’s more, the state’s well-meaning efforts can overlook the layers
of bureaucracy, each with its own motivations, within terrorist groups.
As with any other organization, armed groups have factions that would
like to see their own interests advanced. Had the Spanish state engaged
with ETA negotiators until a consensual solution was found, it might
have found itself running in circles with a group increasingly
irrelevant on the ground but desperate to maintain credibility in the
eyes of its supporters and members.</p>
<p>Mid-level members who have carried out multiple crimes might see
little benefit to peace deals that fail to guarantee their freedom as
more prominent members move to post-terrorism careers. Such conditions
invite violence, as spoilers with little to lose have everything to gain
from a dramatic return to nationalist violence. This is a classic
tactic of militant and terrorist groups that plays to the asymmetric
advantage that armed groups cultivate: the threat of unpredictable
violence in pursuit not only of a political goal but also of survival.</p>
<h4>Lessons in Counterterrorism</h4>
<p>ETA’s demise provides lessons that challenge some popularly accepted
counterterrorism maxims. First, its dissolution was the result of a
lengthy process, not a dramatic victory. Cheers erupted when <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/?s=colombia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Colombia</a> finally concluded a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/world/americas/colombia-farc-accord-juan-manuel-santos.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">peace deal with the FARC</a>
(Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) in November 2016, but such
celebrations were premature. A group like the FARC — far larger than
ETA, with ample access to weaponry and money — has the means to return
to conflict if the political and military environment proves attractive.
The treatment of <a href="https://colombiareports.com/leftist-election-candidate-attacked-northeast-colombia/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FARC politicians</a>
in the 2018 elections should further worry those who see the group’s
end through electoral participation, as FARC’s incentives to return to
violence may remain despite the peace agreement.</p>
<p>In defeating ETA, Spanish authorities also challenged ideas that seek
to paint terrorist groups in a more sympathetic light. While Spain has
made commendable and necessary democratic advances since Franco’s death,
it did not make the mistake of trying to “develop” its way out of the
threat by promising investment and freedoms to legitimize the use of
violence. And while Basque and other languages were legalized, Spain did
not fall victim to ETA’s narrative and maintained its commitment to
democracy and security hand in hand. ETA’s unilateral final declaration
suggests that the group saw no end in site for its armed activities and
no hope for winning further concessions. Former <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43991629" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s</a> vow to continue pursuing the group also suggests continued efforts to arrest violent Basque separatists.</p>
<p>ETA’s dissolution is not just a cause for celebration. It cuts
through some cherished myths of counterterrorism that circulate in the
public domain and forces us to think critically about the situational
success of certain hardnosed tactics. ETA’s demise will provide a useful
case study in the relatively young field of counterterrorism studies
for decades to come.</p>
<p><em>*[Young Professionals in Foreign Policy is a partner institution of <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/partners" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fair Observer</a>.]</em></p>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p></div></div>
<br clear="all"><br>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature">=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+<br><br> Harold F. Schiffman<br><br>Professor Emeritus of <br> Dravidian Linguistics and Culture <br>Dept. of South Asia Studies <br>University of Pennsylvania<br>Philadelphia, PA 19104-6305<br><br>Phone: (215) 898-7475<br>Fax: (215) 573-2138 <br><br>Email: <a href="mailto:haroldfs@gmail.com" target="_blank">haroldfs@gmail.com</a><br><a href="http://ccat.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/" target="_blank">http://ccat.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/</a> <br><br>-------------------------------------------------</div>
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