<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail-section gmail-center" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:30px 0px;box-sizing:border-box;clear:both;text-align:center;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:GaramondPremierW08-Capt,Georgia,"Times New Roman",Times,serif;font-size:17px"><h1 class="gmail-roman-normal-bold" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 15px;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:3rem;line-height:1.15em;font-weight:normal;color:black;clear:both;font-family:"Frutiger Neue LT W06 Bold","Arial Black",Gadget,sans-serif">Brotherly Ukraine Answers Back</h1></div><div class="gmail-section" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:30px 0px;box-sizing:border-box;clear:both;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:GaramondPremierW08-Capt,Georgia,"Times New Roman",Times,serif;font-size:17px"><div class="gmail-blog-zone-feature" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:100%;height:400px;color:white;background-image:url("https://carnegieendowment.org/images/article_images/2019-05-07-ukaine.jpg")"></div></div><div class="gmail-meta gmail-blog-post__meta gmail-black-text gmail-center" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:0.8rem;color:black;text-align:center;font-family:GaramondPremierW08-Capt,Georgia,"Times New Roman",Times,serif"><div class="gmail-section gmail-large-text" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:30px 0px;box-sizing:border-box;clear:both;font-size:1.2rem"><ul class="gmail-uppercase gmail-clean-list gmail-roman-normal-bold" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;list-style:none;font-family:"Frutiger Neue LT W06 Bold","Arial Black",Gadget,sans-serif;text-transform:uppercase"><a href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/experts/479" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(9,46,85)">THOMAS DE WAAL</a></ul></div><div class="gmail-section gmail-center-block gmail-col-80" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:30px auto;box-sizing:border-box;clear:both;width:789.594px"><div class="gmail-largest-text" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.8rem">Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s use of soft power can cause the Kremlin problems.</div><div class="gmail-divider-top gmail-divider--slim gmail-component gmail-roman-normal-book" style="border-width:2px;border-style:solid none none;border-top-color:rgb(228,227,221);border-right-color:initial;border-bottom-color:initial;border-left-color:initial;padding:15px 0px 0px;margin:15px 0px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:"Frutiger Neue LT W06 Book",Arial,sans-serif"><ul class="gmail-clean-list gmail-list-across-spaced" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 15px;box-sizing:border-box;list-style:none"><li class="gmail-mobile-zero" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 30px 0px 0px;box-sizing:border-box;float:none;display:inline-block"><div class="gmail-gutter-half-bottom--mobile" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box">May 07, 2019</div></li><li class="gmail-uppercase gmail-roman-condensed-light" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 30px 0px 0px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:"FrutigerNeueLTW02-CnBoo 775064","Arial Narrow",Arial,sans-serif;float:none;display:inline-block;text-transform:uppercase"><a style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(9,46,85)">PRINT PAGE</a></li><a href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/79075#comments" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(9,46,85)">Comments (1)</a></ul></div></div></div><div class="gmail-section gmail-cols gmail-no-gutters gmail-mobile-zero" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:30px 0px;box-sizing:border-box;clear:both;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:GaramondPremierW08-Capt,Georgia,"Times New Roman",Times,serif;font-size:17px"><div class="gmail-zone-1 gmail-col gmail-col-70" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 30px;box-sizing:border-box;float:left;width:690.891px"><div class="gmail-gutter-right gmail-tablet-zero" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 30px 0px 0px;box-sizing:border-box"><div class="gmail-article-body gmail-first-letter" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em"><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">The delight in Moscow at seeing the back of Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko has not lasted long.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">In Volodymyr Zelenskiy the Russian leadership got the kind of Ukrainian leader it said it wanted—a Russian speaker from outside the old political elite, who talked more emollient language about the Donbass conflict. Some corresponding Western comments portrayed a Zelenskiy win as a victory for the Kremlin.</p><div class="gmail-author-box gmail-no-print" style="border:none;padding:0px 0px 0px 30px;margin:30px 30px 45px;box-sizing:border-box;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-family:"Frutiger Neue LT W06 Book",Arial,sans-serif;width:330px;float:right;font-size:0.8rem"><div class="gmail-avatar gmail-avatar479" alt="De Waal is a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region." style="border:1px solid transparent;padding:0px;margin:0px 15px 0px 0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:100%;border-radius:50%;float:left;height:70px;width:70px;background-color:transparent;background-image:url("https://carnegieendowment.org/images/experts/dewaal_color_medium2.jpg")"></div><h5 class="gmail-author-box__heading" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 15px;box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.15em;font-weight:normal;font-family:"Frutiger Neue LT W06 Bold","Arial Black",Gadget,sans-serif;font-size:1.7rem"><a href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/experts/479" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(61,113,183)">Thomas de Waal</a></h5><div class="gmail-author-box__description" style="border:none;padding:0px 0px 15px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(99,90,79);font-size:0.9rem;line-height:normal">De Waal is a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region.</div><div class="gmail-author-box__social-media" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box"><a href="http://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal" class="gmail-twitter" style="border:none;padding:0px 0px 0px 20px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(61,113,183);background-image:url("/layout-images/sprite_zTitle-buttons.png");background-repeat:no-repeat;font-family:"Frutiger Neue LT W06 Bold","Arial Black",Gadget,sans-serif;font-size:1rem;display:block;text-transform:uppercase;background-position:0px -196px">@TOM_DEWAAL</a></div><div class="gmail-author-box__social-media" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box"></div></div><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">This notion vanished on first contact with reality. In his first victory speech, Zelenskiy <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/ukraine-election/update-6-comedian-zelenskiy-wins-ukrainian-presidential-race-by-landslide-exit-polls-idUKL5N22302D" target="_blank" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(61,113,183)">encouraged Russian voters</a> to wake from their slumbers, saying, “as a citizen of Ukraine, I can say to all countries in the post-Soviet Union look at us. Anything is possible!” The warmest response in Russia to Zelenskiy’s victory came not from the Kremlin but from opposition leader Alexei Navalny (the two men are almost exact contemporaries) who <a href="https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1120021727550017541" target="_blank" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(61,113,183)">praised Ukrainians</a> for their exercise in democracy. </p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">Putin followed up with an extreme provocation, offering Russian passports to residents of the two Moscow-backed breakaway territories in eastern Ukraine. In answer to this, outgoing Petro Poroshenko would probably have doubled down on patriotic rhetoric. In the first shot of what has been called a game of state-level ping-pong, Zelenskiy’s response was masterful. He announced that he was offering Ukrainian passports to dissident Russians, then, in <a href="https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2236347569948940&id=100007211555008" target="_blank" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(61,113,183)">a measured Facebook post</a>, told Russians why his was a much better offer than Putin’s.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">“Ukraine is different in particular because we Ukrainians have freedom of speech, a free media, and internet in our country. Which is why we clearly understand what a Russian passport really offers someone: the right to be arrested for a peaceful protest; the right to not have free and competitive elections; the right to forget about your natural rights and human freedoms.”</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">The medium was as important as the message itself, being conveyed in both Ukrainian and Russian. </p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">Ukraine’s language politics since independence has been, to put it mildly, a mess. Under Poroshenko there has been a new push to cement Ukrainian as the language of the state, while offering far too little to the millions who still speak Russian by choice. A <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/brian-milakovsky-how-ukraines-new-language-law-will-affect-donbas.html?cn-reloaded=1" target="_blank" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(61,113,183)">new language law</a>, adopted by the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, on April 26, made use of the Ukrainian language in public places, businesses, the media, and education mandatory. Zelenskiy was critical, saying that “the government should enable development of the Ukrainian language by establishing stimuli and positive examples, and not bans and punishments.”</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">A native of eastern Ukraine, Zelenskiy belongs to the social group that mixes the two languages freely, who do not like Russia but still speak it as their first language of choice. In “Servant of the People,” the sitcom that propelled him to the presidency, most of the characters speak Russian, while switching back and forth to Ukrainian.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">Essentially this is a rejection of the flawed notion, shared by both Ukrainian nationalists and Russian politicians, that using the Russian language in Ukraine constitutes a political affiliation to Russia.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">If he gets the chance, we can expect Zelenskiy to promote a more nuanced language policy, promoting Ukrainian as the state language but without seeking to penalize use of Russian. </p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">How much does this matter? Raw power matters more, people will say, and Russian military hardware is still in the Donbass. The Russian establishment will find ways of undermining Zelenskiy. No doubt we will hear a Russian media message that the new president is “hostage” of establishment hardlines. </p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">It does matter, however, because Ukraine policy in Russia is about more than the elite. The public has a view too, and consistently a more pacific one than its leaders. Since 2014, Putin has spun the idea that Russia is an embattled fortress, with Ukraine its most hostile frontline state. The message is that “brotherly Ukraine” was captured in a coup d’état by pro-Western stooges who are trying to drag their country into NATO and oppress its Russian speakers.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vladimir-putin-russian-president-60-minutes-charlie-rose/" target="_blank" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(61,113,183)">Putin told American correspondent Charlie Rose</a> in 2015, “[Ukraine] is our closest neighbor. We’ve always said that this is our sister country…What I believe is absolutely unacceptable is the resolution of internal political issues in the former USSR Republics, through “color revolutions,” through coup d’état, through unconstitutional removal of power.”</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">A smiling Ukrainian leader, with a big democratic mandate, rejecting Russian state aggression but reaching out to the Russian public in its own language, makes a mockery of this narrative.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">The evolution of Georgia since 2012, the year it voted out the party of Mikheil Saakashvili, is an interesting precedent.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">The Georgian Dream government has fashioned a fairly successful dual-track policy of distinguishing between the Russian political elite and Russian society as a whole. On a high state level, since the 2008 war, Tbilisi has kept diplomatic relations with Moscow suspended and defended its red lines on Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But Georgia’s recent leaders have refrained from Saakashvili’s inflammatory rhetoric and have cultivated trade and tourism. Up to one million Russian tourists <a href="http://agenda.ge/en/news/2019/436" target="_blank" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(61,113,183)">visited Georgia last year</a>.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">Russian attitudes to Georgia have changed, surely in large part due to this deployment of Georgian charm. <a href="https://www.levada.ru/2018/06/14/druzya-i-vragi-rossii-3/" target="_blank" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px;box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:none;color:rgb(61,113,183)">Levada Center polls</a> show a precipitate drop in the number of Russians who consider Georgia to be an “enemy country”—from 62 percent in 2009 to 8 percent in 2018.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">The Kremlin can still try and pick a fight with Georgia, and intervene in Ukraine, but it is not going to win any votes by doing so.</p><p class="gmail-selectionShareable" style="border:none;padding:0px;margin:0px 0px 1em;box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.4rem;line-height:1.7em">To put it another way, on a modest level in Georgia and perhaps now in Ukraine, Putin’s regime is dealing with a new phenomenon—soft power from its neighbors. Beware brotherly Ukraine!</p></div></div></div></div><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature">=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+<br><br> Harold F. Schiffman<br><br>Professor Emeritus of <br> Dravidian Linguistics and Culture <br>Dept. of South Asia Studies                     <br>University of Pennsylvania<br>Philadelphia, PA 19104-6305<br><br>Phone:  (215) 898-7475<br>Fax:  (215) 573-2138                                      <br><br>Email:  <a href="mailto:haroldfs@gmail.com" target="_blank">haroldfs@gmail.com</a><br><a href="http://ccat.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/" target="_blank">http://ccat.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/</a>    <br><br>-------------------------------------------------</div></div>