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Johanna's remarks and observations are really 'to the point'. Let me
just stress/add one aspect, namely the 'nature' of the implication
underlying Atkinson's hypothesis: It is a well-known assumption in
relevance logics that in order to set up a true implication, the
antecedent and consequent must be related in terms of relevance
(e.g. by sharing some kind of common predicate). Thus, the phrase
"if I am in New York, two and three are five" is superficially true
in terms of a 'material implication', but the antecedent and the
consequent lack any common, evident relevance. This phrase comes
close to a formula like "if a population is of size X, then the
phoneme inventory of their language is of size Y". In order to
assert a relevant relation, we have to describe in details at least
one necessary condition that holds for both the antecedent ("if a
population is of size X" and the consequent ("the phoneme inventory
of their language is of size Y"). Else, the 'implicative' relation
between these two propositions would be irrelevant. <br>
<br>
A famous example is the statistical observation that the number of
storks in a village is in relation to the number of children born in
this village, cf. Hofer et al. 2004. New Evidence for the Theory of
the Stork. In: <i>Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology </i>18, S.
88-92. This correlation suggested by statistical data is based on a
non-causal factor namely the degree of urbanization that may cause
both the reduction of nesting sites for storks and the spreading of
'nuclear families'. Hence, the statistical data just strengthen the
folk-scientific hypothesis according to which 'storks bring the
babies', even though the implication is not mark for a relevant
relation..... <br>
<br>
The 'marriage' between two statistical observations must not just
been 'plausible', but based on a comprehensive scenario that relates
in a relevant way basic properties of the two statements formulating
these observations. One major point would be to formulate
predictions that would be applicable to representatives of the
antecedent within yet knowing about the quality of a possible
consequent. For instance, in teh given case relevance would be
suggested if we start from a population size X without knowing
anything (!) of their language and its phoneme inventory. The
hypothesis would be that the unknown language should have an phoneme
inventory of size Y. By then (!) unveiling the given language and
its phoneme inventory, we can check the assumed consequent against
its antecedent. In case the relation supports the implicature and in
case we can repeat this calculus in a statistically significant
number of instances, we might set up the hypothesis that the
relation between antecedent and consequent must share some kind of
relevance, even though we still have to model this relevance. <br>
<br>
As far as I can see, Atkinson does not apply this basic technique of
evaluating a superficially 'material implication'. Rather, the
author starts from two given sets of data (population / phoneme
inventory) and sets up an ad hoc implication ('verified' with the
help of statistical considerations). In this case, we need a full
description of those properties of both the antecedent and the
consequent that produce a 'relevant relation' between them.
Personally, I cannot fully understand how this should be done. One
main point is that you have to define a population via 'language',
that is you include the consequent in the antecedent, which is
highly problematic when construing implications. In addition, we
need a criterion that allows us to correlate population and language
at all. The problem is that the notion 'population' (when referred
to in Atkinson's sense) is marked for a demographic factor that
again 'counts' biological 'substance' (hard data). On the other
hand, 'language' is not an 'object', but a variable that may or may
not be correlated with these data. For instance, if one claims that
a population is defined e.g. by sharing a set of economic
strategies, one would arrive at totally different hypotheses. In
fact, you cannot predict which language is spoken by a group of
people (not to speak by an individual or a "human fossil"). So, you
have to replace 'population' by 'speech community'. But again, this
does not help very much: If you start from the individual (who
normally initiates language change), its 'speech community' usually
is much smaller than the fictitious overall 'speech community': Such
a 'speech community' normally is a network of smaller communities
sharing 'human interfaces' that belong to more than one smaller
'speech community'. In this sense, the overall number of speakers of
a speech community defined by one language is not the relevant
figure: What matters is the number of speakers in the smaller
communities that are marked for constant and mutual linguistic
practice. So, in reality, most 'speech communities' are rather
'small' (some people say that an individual in a pre-modern society
was in constant discourse with maximally 100 people). Now, if
language is structured also by such factors as interactional types
that control the shaping and re-shaping of linguistic signs, then
the demographic factors becomes only relevant with respect to the
degree of interaction. In other words: It is the demography of a
'speech community in interaction' that counts (if ever), not the
overall population marked for using the 'same' language. <br>
<br>
Here, I refrain from discussing the hypothesis according to which
smaller communities allow more lexical ambiguities than 'larger
communities' (thus 'reducing' the need for larger sets of
phonological oppositions). Let me just say that given the fact that
people always live and communicate in smaller social networks this
hypothesis loses ground. In addition, you can easily turn around
this argument: In a larger social network, ambiguities should be
much more pronounced because a speaker has to respect very different
'states of knowledge'. Being too explicit would set them at risk to
isolate them from their interactional partners. Also, the hypothesis
does no explain in details, how preference for ambiguity should
effect a phonological system at all: A phonological system is mainly
defined by the set of lexical and morphological linguistic signs
used in a speech community. The rise of degree of ambiguity (or:
inference) would mean that certain concepts (signifiés) that are too
specific no longer become expressed by their corresponding
signifiants. But why should this happen especially to those sets of
linguistic signs that are marked for specific phonological values?
Vagueness, the allowance of inference, and ambiguity concern
concepts, not their articulation..... <br>
<br>
Best wishes,<br>
Wolfgang<br>
<br>
<br>
Am 17.04.2011 08:30, schrieb Johanna Nichols:
<blockquote
cite="mid:b8be1c780380b9ef962bed1d581234ef.squirrel@calmail.berkeley.edu"
type="cite">
<pre wrap="">This is written up to be more or less self-standing, but please DON'T
QUOTE it without asking me first -- I'm expanding the sample for this and
there will be changes.
Johanna
Atkinson 2011 finds a significant positive correlation between population
size and phoneme inventory size (confirming Hay & Bauer 2007) and explains
it by migration: phoneme sizes are largest in Africa, and as societies
spread out of Africa and around the world they went through population and
cultural bottlenecks and underwent phonological simplification as a
consequence. I believe the correlation is artifactual.
As background, Sproat 2011 points out that Atkinson's language sizes range
from a few tens of speakers to hundreds of millions of speakers. But
population sizes in the Paleolithic were small, probably at most a few
thousand speakers and often fewer. If Atkinson's explanation is correct,
the positive correlation between population size and phoneme inventory
size should also hold among just the smaller population sizes; looking at
Fig. S1, there does still seem to be a positive correlation, but it looks
considerably weaker. I agree with Sproat on all these points.
In Nichols 2009, a cross-linguistic survey of overall grammatical
complexity, I found a highly significant negative correlation between
overall complexity and population size: smaller communities have more
complex languages. But that proves to be an artifact of the larger
population sizes and lower structural complexity in Africa and Eurasia:
within subglobal areas (Old World, Pacific, New World) there is no
correlation. The large language-population sizes in Africa and Eurasia
have to do with the long history of statehood and empire (which spread big
state languages at the expense of smaller ones), economic growth, and
efficient food production (themselves accidents of geography: Diamond
1997). Also, European colonization brought smallpox and economic
destruction to the Americas and Australia, drastically reducing
populations, and the population figures we have are post-colonial. Big
trade languages, state languages, and other inter-ethnic languages tend to
be simpler than small ethnic languages (Trudgill 2009, Szmrecsanyi &
Kortmann 2009, Dahl 2004), and there have been many more of these in
Africa and Eurasia than in the pre-contact Americas and Pacific.
So, does Atkinson's positive correlation in phonology hold within large
areas as well as worldwide? I took the data on phonological complexity
from my 2009 paper, quickly surveyed a few more languages to fill gaps,
and did some counts. Now, my data measures phonological complexity
(consonant inventory size, vowel inventory size, suprasegmentals, syllable
complexity), not quite the same thing as what Atkinson measures, but
certainly getting at the same thing. My figures for population size may
be different, as they are often based on grammars and ethnographies rather
than Ethnologue and I have attempted to track ethnic group size, not
numbers of speakers (since the proportion of speakers in ethnic groups has
fallen drastically in recent years). Atkinson has 500+ languages; I have
85, representing that subset of the Autotyp (Bickel & Nichols 2002ff.)
genealogical sample that I was able to cover quickly.
I found the same positive correlation worldwide (statisticaly
significant). But it does not obtain within large areas. It is reversed
in Africa (a negative correlation: larger population correlates with
simpler phonology) and there is no correlation in Eurasia and the
Americas; there is a slight correlation in the Pacific, but my sample from
there is too small to be confident of this.
If there is really a correlation between population size and phoneme
inventory size (or anything else), it should hold within areas as well as
worldwide. I believe the worldwide positive correlation is an artifact of
(a) larger population size in Eurasia and Africa, (b) areality in greater
Africa (extending into the Near East and the Caucasus) (large number of
airflow contrasts in consonant inventories). (Africa is large but a
closed area which has received almost no linguistic or genetic
immigrations during its very long prehistory and the net effect of
numerous local contact episodes is continent-wide areality manifesting
itself not only in consonant contrasts but also e.g. in gender systems and
tone systems.)
Atkinson's explanation is that the smaller phoneme inventories in places
distant from Africa are founder effects: as small populations migrated
greater and greater distances from Africa they passed through bottlenecks
and isolation and lost phoneme diversity. If this is the actual
explanation, one would expect concomitant simplification of morphology and
the rest of grammar with greater distance from Africa, but in fact we find
the reverse: languages in the Americas and the Pacific are on average
more complex overall, and morphologically, than those in Africa (or Africa
plus Eurasia) (Nichols 2009).
References
Atkinson, Quentin D. 2011. Phonemic diversity supports a serial founder
effect model of language expansion from Africa. Science 33:346-9.
Bickel, Balthasar and Johanna Nichols. 2002. The Autotyp research program.
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.uni-leipzig.de/~autotyp/">http://www.uni-leipzig.de/~autotyp/</a>
Dahl, Östen. 2004. The Growth and Maintenance of Linguistic Complexity.
Amsterdam: Benjamins.
Diamond, Jared. 1997. Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human
Societies. New York: Norton.
Hay, Jennifer and Laurie Bauer. 2007. Phoneme inventory size and
population size. Language 83:2.388-400.
Sproat, Richard. 2011. Science does it again.
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cslu.ogi.edu/~sproatr/newindex/atkinson.html">http://www.cslu.ogi.edu/~sproatr/newindex/atkinson.html</a> (accessed April
14, 2011)
Szmrecsanyi, Benedikt and Bernd Kortmann. 2009. Between simplification and
complexification: Non-standard varieties of English around the world. In
Geoffrey Sampson, David Gil and Peter Trudgill, eds., Language Complexity
as an Evolving Variable, 65-79. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Trudgill, Peter. 2009. Sociolinguistic typology and complexification. In
Geoffrey Sampson, David Gil and Peter Trudgill, eds., Language Complexity
as an Evolving Variable, 98-109. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"
lang="EN-US">----------------------------------------------------------</span><span
style="font-size: 12pt;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><b><span style="" lang="EN-US">Prof. Dr.
Wolfgang
Schulze </span></b><span
style="font-size: 10pt;" lang="EN-US">
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"
lang="EN-US">----------------------------------------------------------
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">Institut
für
Allgemeine & Typologische Sprachwissenschaft <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span class="SpellE"><span
style="font-size: 8pt;">Dept</span></span><span
style="font-size: 8pt;">. II / F 13
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität
München
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">Ludwigstraße
25
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">D-80539
München
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">Tel.:
0049-(0)89-2180-2486
(Secretary)
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">
</span><span style="font-size: 8pt;" lang="EN-US">0049-(0)89-2180-5343
(Office)
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
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class="GramE"> 0049</span>-(0)89-2180-5345
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;" lang="FR">Email:
</span><span style="font-size: 8pt;"><a
href="mailto:W.Schulze@lrz.uni-muenchen.de"><span style=""
lang="FR">W.Schulze@lrz.uni-muenchen.de</span></a></span><span
style="font-size: 8pt;" lang="FR"> /// </span><span
style="font-size: 8pt;"><a
href="mailto:Wolfgang.Schulze@lmu.de"><span style=""
lang="FR">Wolfgang.Schulze@lmu.de</span></a></span><span
style="font-size: 8pt;" lang="FR"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
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lang="EN-US">Web: <a
href="http://www.ats.lmu.de/index.html">http://www.ats.lmu.de/index.html</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;"
lang="EN-US">Personal homepage: <a
href="http://www.wolfgangschulze.in-devir.com">http://www.wolfgangschulze.in-devir.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;
line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">----------------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height:
115%; color: rgb(77, 77, 77);">Diese e-Mail kann
vertrauliche und/oder rechtlich geschützte
Informationen enthalten. Wenn Sie nicht der richtige
Adressat sind bzw. diese
e-Mail irrtümlich erhalten haben, informieren Sie bitte
umgehend den Absender
und vernichten Sie diese e-Mail. Das unerlaubte Kopieren
sowie das unbefugte
Verwenden und Weitergeben vertraulicher e-Mails oder
etwaiger, mit solchen
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nicht gestattet.
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insbesondere
durch virenbefallene e-Mails ausgeschlossen. </span><span
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