LL-L "In the media" 2005.02.26 (05) [E]

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From:  R. F. Hahn <sassisch at yahoo.com>
Subject: In the media


ENGLISH IN DECLINE AS A FIRST LANGUAGE, STUDY SAYS

Stefan Lovgren
for National Geographic News

February 26, 2004

It may be time to brush up on your Mandarin.

According to one new study, the percentage of the global population that
grew up speaking English as its first language is declining. In addition, an
increasing number of people now speak more than one language.

In the future, English is likely to be one of those languages, but the
Mandarin form of Chinese will probably be the next must-learn language,
especially in Asia.

"The status of English as a global language may peak soon," said David
Graddol, managing director of the English Company in Milton Keynes, England,
and the author of a new study on the future of language.

However, a separate study suggests that English's dominance in the
scientific arena will continue to expand. While this trend has encouraged
international collaboration, researchers warn it could also divide the
scientific world into haves and have-nots, determining who can, for example,
publish in international journals.

Both studies are published—in English—in this week's issue of the journal
Science.

No World Language

Graddol argues that the world's language system is at a crossroads, and a
new linguistic order is about to emerge. The transformation is partly due to
demographics. The world's population rose rapidly during the 20th century,
but the major increase took place in less developed countries.

Long gone is the idea, first suggested in the 19th century, that the entire
world will one day speak English as a "world language." In fact, the
relative decline of English is continuing. In the mid-20th century, nearly 9
percent of the world's population grew up speaking English as their first
language. In 2050, the number is expected to be 5 percent.

"Population growth amongst speakers of languages other than English has been
greater," Graddol said. But he adds that English is declining less rapidly
than some other languages, like Italian.

Today, Mandarin Chinese is well established as the world's largest language
in terms of native speakers.

The next four major languages—English, Spanish, Hindi/Urdu, and Arabic—are
likely to be equally ranked by 2050, with Arabic rising as English declines.

But it is the languages of the rank just below—such as Bengali, Tamil, and
Malay—that are now growing the fastest.

Meanwhile, the world continues to rapidly lose older, rural languages. There
are roughly 6,000 languages existing in the world today. Yet 90 percent of
these may be doomed to extinction, with much of this loss happening in the
coming century. One language may be lost every day, Graddol says.

"Languages spoken only in small, traditional, rural communities are being
lost as the communities themselves are transformed and connected closely to
the wider society," Graddol said. "Linguistic diversity is being lost at a
faster rate than biodiversity."

Science's Lingua Franca

While many rural languages are going extinct, new urban hybrid languages may
help to maintain global diversity. Hundreds of new forms of English have
already been spawned around the world.

Some traditional languages are losing their practical use as much
communication—economic, cultural, and political—becomes international.
"Swedish, like many European languages, is now more a local language of
solidarity than one for science, university education, or European
communication," Graddol writes.

In an accompanying article, Scott Montgomery—a Seattle-based geologist and
author of _The Chicago Guide to Communicating Science_,—shows that English
has established itself as the preferred world language for science.

"Because of its scale and dynamism, science has become the most active and
dynamic creator of new language in the world today. And most of this
creation is occurring in English, the lingua franca of scientific effort,"
Montgomery said.

Montgomery believes the future will almost certainly see a continued
expansion of English use in science, especially in international settings,
though not to the final exclusion of other tongues. Already, more than 90
percent of journal literature in some scientific fields is printed in
English.

"More and more scientists who are non-native speakers of English will need
to become multilingual," Montgomery said. "[This constitutes] an educational
burden in some sense, but one that has much historical precedent in the
cases of ancient Greek, medieval Latin, and medieval Arabic."

Next Must-Learn Language

Graddol, meanwhile, predicts that English will play a crucial role in
shaping the new linguistic order. But, he says, its major impact will be in
creating new generations of bilingual and multilingual speakers around the
world.

"English is becoming a major mechanism for social and economic exclusion and
creating new divides," he said. "In many parts of the world, English is now
regarded as a basic skill, like computer skills, which children learn at an
early age so they can study through English later."

Businesses whose employees are not multilingual will find themselves at a
disadvantage, Graddol says. In fact, employers in parts of Asia are already
looking beyond English. In the next decade, the new must-learn language is
likely to be Mandarin.

"Chinese is demographically huge, but when the Chinese economy has overtaken
that of the United States, no one will be able to ignore its global power,"
Graddol said. "We know from the past that great languages of science can be
overtaken. Latin was preeminent when modern science began in the 17th
century."

In the future, the study predicts, most people will speak more than one
language and will switch between languages for routine tasks. Monolingual
English speakers may find it difficult to fully participate in a
multilingual society.

"Native English speakers—particularly monolingual ones—have been too
complacent about the status of their language and the lack of need to learn
other languages," Graddol said.



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