Rising Russian Enrollments

[Paul B. Gallagher]

[overriding HP's private Reply-To setting as this will be interesting to 
the whole list]

H.P. Houtzagers wrote:

> The rise in Russian enrollments in the USA might be part of a wider
> phenomenon: in Holland there is an increase, too.

 From where I sit, the only path to robust, sustainable long-term growth 
in enrollments is through an improvement in Russia's legal/governmental 
framework, which is the major impediment to business growth.

When Russia first opened up in 1991, hordes of Western companies charged 
into the "new frontier," only to find that Russia wasn't really ready 
for prime time. Companies found they couldn't rely on the Russian legal 
framework, which was being developed from scratch, to protect their 
assets. After all, the government regarded itself as a player, not a 
referee, and it was a greedy one.

After the initial "gold rush," things settled down to a level above 
where they had been under Soviet rule, but still far below what was 
possible in a country of Russia's size and assets, and most of the 
risk-averse companies got out or limited their participation while the 
Russians worked on their framework.

Then came 1998, the year of what the Russians call the кризис and what 
we in the West call the "default" -- Russia repudiated some $15 billion 
in foreign debt. Western companies responded by fleeing in droves, and 
it took years before some could be coaxed back. Then we also had the 
Yukos case, widely regarded here as an abuse of power and a symptom of 
wider problems: "the same thing could happen to us." Yukos was not an 
isolated case, just the biggest and most public one, and it has defined 
Russia's reputation.

We still have a situation where many Western companies distrust the 
Russian government and legal framework, and Putin et al. are doing 
little to assuage those doubts. If I had millions to invest, I'd be much 
more comfortable doing so in Western Europe, where I would know that the 
playing field was level and the government wouldn't arbitrarily seize my 
assets or change the rules on a whim. The ROI might be lower, but I 
could take it to the bank.

-- 
War doesn't determine who's right, just who's left.
--
Paul B. Gallagher
pbg translations, inc.
"Russian Translations That Read Like Originals"
http://pbg-translations.com

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