Cockroach Theory (1990)

Sun Sep 7 01:14:59 UTC 2003

        Here's an earlier cockroach usage.  This is from the 12/9/87 Wall Street Journal:

        >>Other academics and professional investors have their own
favorite rules for deciding when to sell. Melissa Brown,
director of quantitative research at Prudential-Bache
Securities Inc., for instance, generally recommends selling a
stock when the company's earnings fall below analysts'
expectations. "Like cockroaches, you rarely see just one
earnings surprise," she says. <<

        For a nonfinancial cite, here's the 8/17/85 Dallas Morning News:

        >>"The idea is that if you turn on the kitchen light late one night
and you see one cockroach or one mouse scurry across the floor, the
automatic assumption is that there must be 10 or 12 more running
around somewhere,' Sanders wrote, explaining what he calls his
"Rat/Roach Theory.'<<

John Baker

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