"Chinaman's chance" in the news

[Laurence Horn]

At 7:13 PM -0400 8/20/05, Douglas G. Wilson wrote:
>>Is there evidence to back up any of these conjectures?
>
>I don't know of any, can't find any on quick look-around.
>
>I see "Chinaman's chance" used in the modern way from 1897.
>
>I don't see any obvious precursor. It is also interesting that I don't see
>any early alternative formations: no "Chink's chance", no "Chinese chance",
>no "Celestial's chance", no "he doesn't have even the chance of a Chinaman"
>or "my chances are at the Chinese level", etc. (some of these were used
>much later however). Also no comparable expression referring to other
>ethnic groups or nationalities.
>
>It would seem that the expression was probably favored by its rhythm and
>alliteration, which of course brings up the possibility that the "Chinaman"
>meant nothing at all originally. For example, just as one can speculate
>that "ball of wax" originated as an intentional malapropism not having any
>real reference to wax, or that "Heavens to Betsy" did not originally refer
>to anyone or anything named Betsy at all, it is possible that "Chinaman's"
>was a distortion of something else originally. One tentative candidate:
>"Chinaman's chance" < "Time and chance", which was sometimes used in the
>19th century where "chance" alone might be used today (this word-group is
>also familiar from a popular Biblical passage, I think).
>
I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift,
nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet
riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but
time and chance happeneth to them all.
--Ecclesiastes 9:11

The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but
that's the way to bet.
--Grantland Rice

To every thing, Turn turn turn, There is a season, Turn turn turn
--The Byrds

(Just free associating a bit here.)

Larry