ping pong balls (UNCLASSIFIED)

[Alice Faber]

Laurence Horn wrote:
> At 12:35 PM -0500 4/27/07, Mullins, Bill AMRDEC wrote:
>> Classification:  UNCLASSIFIED
>> Caveats: NONE
>>
>>
>> I haven't had a chance to research and identify cites, but I'm hearing
>> "ping pong balls" as a synonym for "lottery picks" (in the context of
>> the upcoming NFL draft, NBA draft, etc.) lately.  Ex:  "Cincinnati is
>> trading their first round pick for extra ping pong balls in later
>> rounds."
>
> Actually, that only makes sense for the NBA draft.  Nobody else uses
> that kind of weighted randomized procedure, so it's quite misleading
> (if not erroneous) for it to be used for the NFL, where draft
> position is based strictly on previous year's record, and strength of
> schedule (or ultimately coin-flips, ceteris paribus) to resolve ties.

Actually, the NHL also uses a weighted randomization to determine which
of the non-playoff teams will pick first. I'm pretty sure I've heard the
term "ping pong balls" in reference to this draft lottery as well.
(pause to google) Here's a representative sample from a blog entry:
<http://dumpnchase.wordpress.com/2007/04/09/winning-the-lotto/>

"The list below shows the odds. The leftmost column shows a team’s odds
of having one of its ping-pong balls come up in tomorrow morning’s
lottery. the middle column shows the odds of getting the first overall
pick. (Philadelphia’s odds of getting the first pick vs. having one of
its own balls are different, because if any of the bottom nine teams has
its ping-pong ball pulled, the Flyers would pick first. That’s because
the bottom nine would merely move up four slots, not high enough to push
Philly down to the second slot.)"
--
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Alice Faber                                    faber at haskins.yale.edu
Haskins Laboratories                           tel: (203) 865-6163 x258
New Haven, CT 06511 USA                        fax (203) 865-8963

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