lies, statistics: Talleyrand? (or dead end?)

Fri Jan 26 15:03:53 UTC 2007

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" (and variants; e.g. outrageous lies) has
been traced back, so far, to Robert Giffen in 1892, who quoted it as an
invention by someone else, based on three classes of witnesses
(liars...experts and variants]). Twain attributed to B. Disraeli. Leonard
Courtney and Walter Bagehot are among other claimed attributions. Some texts
below may be dead ends. But in case not, let me ask: if the 1869 claim is
accurate, where did Talleyrand--of course, a statesman, original
statistics-users being statesmen--write there were three kinds of statistics?

1842? The conciliator, a reconcilement of the apparent contradictions in holy
Scripture. To which are... By Menasseh b. Israel. To render this point clearer,
according to Augustin (note 12 De Juramente Praeceptis 9-11), lies or falsehoods
are divisible into three kinds: the pernicious, the jocular, and the benignant.
...

1851 Negro-mania: Being an Examination of the Falsely Assumed Equality of the
Various Races of Men By John Campbell &c.; white lies, dressed up with false
statistics, to give them an air of truth ; in the meantime no ...

1854 An abridgment of the catechism of perseverance, tr. by L. Ward By France
Church Q. How many kinds of lies are there 1 A. There are three kinds
of lies: lies of jest, made use of for amusement; officious lies, that are told
to serve a purpose; malicious, which are told to injure a neighbor. All these
lies are sins...

1869 Hospitalism and zymotic diseases 117 (Google book full view)
What were statistics? Talleyrand [1754-1838]said language was made to disguise
ideas, and he might have extended his remark to figures....One could tell lies
with figures....He thought there were three kinds of statistics...clever
writings of Dickens...[character] asked if he likes sausages, answers "Like
sausages?--that depends very much if I know the girl that made them" (laughter)
That wwas his feeling about statistics...in the words of an eminent judge, "I
agree with the two doctors for the reasons assigned by the other two who differ
with them..."

1877 Walter Bagehot died; b. 1826

1881 Benjamin Disraeli died; b.1804

1882 R. Giffen The Utility of Common Statistics (1904 repr in Economic
Inquiries and Studies v2 p18) Here again it is the common figures of
statistics those derived from the systematic... The late Mr. Bagehot I know was
profoundly impressed by the fact, ... [on India and Malthus, population,
anxiety

1885 5 Dec. Talked politics, scandal, and the three classes of
witnesses--liars, d______d liars, and experts." Minutes of the X club Life and
Letters of Thomas Henry Huxley 1900 vol. 1 p, 258.

1889 Chemical Trade J. Manchester lower court judge "there were three kinds of
witnesses first, liars; second, greater liars, and third, scientific
witnesses."

1892 Jan talk, June pub Robert Giffen  (1837-1910, papers at London ScEcon))
Walter Bagehot's asst ed at Economist 1868- 1882-4 President of Statistical
society "An old jest runs to the effect that there are three degrees of
comparison among liars. There are liars, there are outrageous liars,
and there are scientific experts. This has lately been modified to throw dirt
upon statistics... statement now outrageous lies...

1892 Tr. Minnesota State Medical  that there are three classes of unreliable
witnesses, and they were respectively
classified as the liar, the blanked liar and the medical expert. ...

1892 Sept Mrs Crosse to "some wits" d____d lies

1894 Price Collier, Mr Picket-Pin and His Friends p150 Now, however,
that there is a lull in this process of military conversion, the
latest statistics would seem to show that the Indians are no longer decreasing
in numbers. But this is in reality only another instance of Bagehot's "Lies,
d----d, lies, and statistics." The Indians, as Indians, are fast disappearing,
in spite of the fact that these blanketed, copper-coloured numerals of the
Indians about hold their own.

1894 Dr. M. Price  Philadelphia, COMMUNICATIONS.; "SOME SURGICAL
SINS"--REMARKS ON A PAPER CRITICISING THE PROFESSION. Proquest "His less
enthusiastic neighbor thinks of the proverbial kinds of falsehoods, "lies,
damned lies and statistics." Medical and Surgical Reporter (1858-1898).
Philadelphia: Jan 19, 1895. Vol. 72, Iss. 3; p. 87 (5 pages)

1894? March 1 Ohio Farmer Cleveland lies and statistics

1894 28 July case ref in Notes and Queries 1902 ser8 n10 270 331 476 liars
d----- liars and experts

1894 home missionary black lies white lies and statistics

1895 27 July London Times attributed "I think" by William Purdie
Treloar, later London mayor, to Beaconsfield/Disraeli

1895 Leonard Courtney to August Saratoga Springs NY (not UK audience) meeting,
of Wise Statesman

1895 NYTimes attr. to Beaconsfield 20 Aug

1895 Dec Iowa paper attr.to Disraeli

1896? J.A. Baines attrib. to Courtney

1896 Buffalo Traction Fight. Pres of Harvard lies and statistics
New York Times  Jan 25, 1896. p. 15 (1 page)

1897 ... damned lies and statistics, but to tell a really good lie?not to say
a damned lie?or, to put it technically, to make such an economy of truth as
shall ...Economic J. inaug, add.p547 JS Nicholson

1900? ... Statistical Lies and Liars

1901 20 Oct Washington Post p19 Arthur James Balfour...Conservatives...in one of
his faetious moods once designated political newspaper comment as
consisting of
lies, damned lies,and statistics.

1904? Twain attributes to Disraeli

1905 homeopathy defense some cynic

1909 Price Collier to Walter Bagehot "I know very well the admirable phrase of
Walter Bagehot"  WHO ARE THE ENGLISH? 35  I know very well the admirable phrase
of \Valter Bagehot that" there
are lies, damned lies, and statistics"; but I may claim ...

1911 April, Century Magazine, Porto Rico in Transition p871 Remembering
Bagehot's truthful jest about three kinds of lies, lies, damned lies and
statistics

1911 a certain wise man Three...lies lies statistics St Joseph Pun Lib

1912 American J. of Philology v.33 n.2 (1912) 240:
Walter Bagehot is credited with the climax: Lies, damned lies,
statistics [....]
1912 Modern Progress and History: addresses on various academic occasions By
James Joseph Walsh; Facts and truth in Education 342-3 3 kinds lies and liars
medical experts
1912 Henry Des Pre Labouchere died b.1831
1918 Leonard Henry Courtney died b. 1832
1919 School Statistics and Publicity By Carter Alexander (Boston etc,
p.90) They quote the old statement of Bagehot: "There are three kinds of
lies--lies, damned lies, andstatistics."
1924 Twain Autobiography published
1924 Alfred Marshall, economist, died. b. 1842
1928 crescendo lies, damned lies, statistics  W.S.Gosset ("Student") Metron 5,
105
1930? Arthur Balfour died b. 1848
1934 Stevenson Home Quotations to Labouchere or 2 (too late) others
1947 LSC Sparrow Voyages and Cargoes   [p.104] The potency of statistics as a
method of _proof_ is proverbial /[105]"white lies, black lies and
statistics." The significant point for our argument is that Profesor Giddings
actually...... the age in which Bagehot lived appears as one of rude
simplicity. ...

Stephen Goranson
http://www.duke.edu?~goranson

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