"...lies and statistics" Arthur Balfour 1892

[Stephen Goranson]

Mark Twain and others attributed the saying about three kinds of lies--lies,
damned lies, and statistics--to Benjamin Disraeli; but this has not been found
in any of his works; nor has it been found in any usage by anyone as early as
his lifetime. And there are additional reasons to doubt that attribution and
the presentation of it in Yale Book of Quotations.*

In January 1892 Robert Giffen gave a lecture that was printed in June 1892 and
also in 1893 in a conference proceedings published in Hobart, Tasmania (p.463 in
Reports of the ... meeting, ANZAAS). Giffen said that an older saying about
three types of witnesses, liars, damned (he said outrageous) liars, and experts
had "lately been adapted" to throw dirt on statistics. If he was correct, and if
"lately" means within the last few years, then it began after the death of
Disraeli (in 1881). The "liar" saying (sometimes with slight variations, e.g.
scientists instead of experts) is attested in X Club notes of Thomas Henry
Huxley on Dec. 5 1885 (details in the archives) and later, e.g., in the Times,
Mar. 9, 1891, p. 12.

In addition to Disraeli, the phrase has been attributed to Walter Bagehot (in
1894 and often in later years; details in the archive); Leonard Courtney;
Arthur Balfour; and others (and, of course, someone not well known should not be
a priori excluded). E.g. one Balfour attribution appears in the Washington Post
Oct. 29, 1901, p.19: London Gossip.(by Lew Rosen) ...Mr. Arthur James Balfour,
leader of the Conservatives of the House of Commons, in one of his facetious
moods once designated political newspaper comment as consisting of lies, damned
lies, and statistics."

The main new observation here is a new 1892 quote. Though not the last word on
the subject, it may be a helpful step.

POLITICS AND SOCIETY.
The Leeds Mercury (Leeds, England), June 29, 1892; Issue 16920 (3945 words)

Mr. Arthur Balfour is reverting to his old habits of wild and reckless
assertions. Last night he made what his friends would doubtless call a stinging
speech. He began by a contemptuous reference to his opponent, Professor Monro;
and in dealing with the statistics of the latter had the good taste to say that
there were three kinds of unveracity--namely, lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Then, having got his hand in, the ex-Chief Secretary [of Ireland] began his old
game of denying every accusation against his Irish administration. He denied
that the freedom of the Press or the right of public meeting was interfered
with under the Crimes Act of 1887!....

Balfour earlier was author of A defence of philosophic doubt; being an essay on
the foundations of belief (1879), and later Prime Minister (1902-1905), and
author of the Balfour Declaration (1917). He died in 1930. It might be worth
searching for an earlier use of the phrase by him (or Bagehot or Courtney or
another).

Stephen Goranson
http://www.duke.edu/~goranson

*In general I think the Yale Book of Quotations is very good.
Exceptions to this view include its inadequate index and cross referencing
system and its analysis of this phrase. The 1895 Leonard Courtney citation is
misinterpreted there (as explained in the archive; it refers to the future,
i.e., to a statesman long after the death of Disraeli, etc.). I contributed that
citation, unacknowledged in YBQ, unlike in Ralph Keyes, The Quote Verifier.

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