Antedating of the Term "Murphy's Law"

[Dave Wilton]

Yes, it was 1948. The most detailed account I know of, compiling the
testimony of several of the Stapp deceleration test engineers, can be found
at http://www.improb.com/airchives/paperair/volume9/v9i5/murphy/murphy0.html

The Roe book is not inconsistent with the Edwards AFB story, but it pushes
the envelope of possibility. Roe was primarily dealing with theoretical and
experimental physicists, not engineers or aviation experts. The fact that
early references to "Murphy's Law" are rare indicates that the term was not
really widespread in these early years. It seems unlikely that an obscure
term would jump from USAF engineering circles to academic physicists. Not
impossible, just not all that likely.

Given that the form "if anything can go wrong, it will" predates 1948 by
many years, it is possible that "Murphy" is someone other than Capt. Ed
Murphy. Stapp could have picked up the phrase from somewhere, used it at the
press conference, and the engineers at Edwards falsely ascribed it to Capt.
Ed Murphy.

AFAIK, no one has ever turned up a press account of the Stapp press
conference that uses the phrase. Some years ago I did extensive searching of
various aviation journals for 1947-1950 and could find no references to
"Murphy's Law" in connection with Stapp. (And IIRC, I didn't find any
references to "Murphy's Law" at all--at least I didn't record any.)


-----Original Message-----
From: American Dialect Society [mailto:ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU] On Behalf Of
Shapiro, Fred
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2008 11:18 AM
To: ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU
Subject: Re: Antedating of the Term "Murphy's Law"

I thought the locus classicus was in 1949, but I may be wrong about that.
In any case, what I meant is that if we push the term "Murphy's Law" back a
few more years, it will pretty much knock out the validity of the locus
classicus.

Fred Shapiro



________________________________________
From: American Dialect Society [ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU] On Behalf Of Baker,
John [JMB at STRADLEY.COM]
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2008 2:03 PM
To: ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU
Subject: Re: Antedating of the Term "Murphy's Law"

        No, the supposed Edwards Air Force Base locus classicus was in
1948, which would not at all be inconsistent with the aphorism and name
being repeated to Anne Roe in 1948 or 1949.


John Baker



-----Original Message-----
From: American Dialect Society [mailto:ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU] On Behalf
Of Shapiro, Fred
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2008 12:40 PM
To: ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU
Subject: Re: Antedating of the Term "Murphy's Law"

I believe that Dave's analysis of dates, if correct, means that we have
come close to pretty much disproving the standard Edwards Air Force Base
mythology about the origin of "Murphy's Law."

Fred Shapiro



________________________________________
From: American Dialect Society [ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU] On Behalf Of
Dave Wilton [dave at WILTON.NET]
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2008 11:29 AM
To: ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU
Subject: Re: Antedating of the Term "Murphy's Law"

Correction: the introductory letter to biologists also contains a
citation for a 1947 journal article, this pushes the incidents with the
physicists out to no earlier than 1948-49.

-----Original Message-----
From: American Dialect Society [mailto:ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU] On Behalf
Of Dave Wilton
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2008 7:11 AM
To: ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU
Subject: Re: Antedating of the Term "Murphy's Law"

I can't be certain as Roe does not give the dates for her surveys of
scientists.

She spent a year with each of three different groups of scientists:
biologists, physicists, and social scientists, in that order. She
includes the text of a letter introducing herself to a biologist that
cites a 1946 work. As the incidents with the physicists are the ones
with the references to Murphy's Law, we can assume they took place no
earlier than 1947 and no later than 1950. My best guess is that the
period studying the physicists was in 1949.

I haven't read the whole book in detail, so there may be some other
references to dates, but none that are apparent on a skim through the
pages.

-----Original Message-----
From: American Dialect Society [mailto:ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU] On Behalf
Of Baker, John
Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2008 6:14 PM
To: ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU
Subject: Re: Antedating of the Term "Murphy's Law"

        Do the periods described on pp. 46 - 47 or on p. 214 predate the
1948 incident from which some suppose Murphy's law took its name?


John Baker


-----Original Message-----
From: American Dialect Society [mailto:ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU] On Behalf
Of Dave Wilton
Sent: Monday, December 17, 2007 7:13 PM
To: ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU
Subject: Re: Antedating of the Term "Murphy's Law"

I got a copy of the book from the UC Berkeley library. There's no
explanation of who Murphy was, but more slightly more complete quotes
than those given by the Google Books snippets follow:

Roe, Anne, _The Making of a Scientist_ (New York: Dodd, Mead & Company,
1952, 1953.

pp.46-47:
"There were a number of particularly delightful incidents. There is, for
example, the physicist who introduced me to one of my favorite 'laws,'
which he described as 'Murphy's law or the fourth law of thermodynamics'
(actually there were only three last I heard) which states: 'If anything
can go wrong it will.'"

p. 214:
"It was while working on this part of the study that I ran into the
perfect exemplification of 'Murphy's law' at one university, where
everything that could go wrong did!"

p. 224:
"Certainly this was Murphy's law in operation,--but I will never be the
same again."

------------------------------------------------------------
The American Dialect Society - http://www.americandialect.org

------------------------------------------------------------
The American Dialect Society - http://www.americandialect.org

------------------------------------------------------------
The American Dialect Society - http://www.americandialect.org