"Buckley's chance" antedated--in New Zealand

[Stephen Goranson]

Many publications present numerous proposed Australian origins of "Buckley's chance."  The Australian National Dictionary, whose earliest quote is from 1895, offers: " Buckley's...In full Buckley's chance (choice, hope, show). A forlorn hope; no prospect whatever."

>From searching databases available to me--others are invited to improve on this--the earliest available uses of "Buckley's chance" appear, not in Australia, but in New Zealand. Also, some of the relatively uses of Buckley's choice (1908), hope and show (1890), likewise, appear in N.Z. Therefore, perhaps, one might consider the possibility of origin from a New Zealand Buckley.

Here are two 1892 N.Z. uses of "Buckley's chance":

Papers Past — Observer — 10 September 1892 — DIAMOND CUT …
Observer - natlib.govt.nz - Sep 10, 1892
Of course, this meant that had the plaintiff not been a man of good principle his solicitor might have had what is called a "Buckley's chance" of recovering his fees This so incensed the plaintiff's solicitor ...

Papers Past — Ashburton Guardian — 5 November 1892 — [White Choker][on boat racing]
Ashburton Guardian - natlib.govt.nz - Nov 5, 1892
 Vogengang Rosefeldt and Flinders to use a vulgar phrase cannot have Buckley's chance with St Hippo for whom I have a great liking

Here are two 1890 N.Z. uses of "Buckley's show" (attested earlier than "Buckley's chance"):

Papers Past — West Coast Times — 16 June 1890 — FOOTBALL NOTES …
West Coast Times - natlib.govt.nz - Jun 16, 1890
On Saturday some twenty Possibles had Buckley's show against the ten Probables and at the call of 'no side' the score stood 18 points to nil.

Papers Past — Feilding Star — 10 July 1890 — Sporting
Feilding Star - natlib.govt.nz - Jul 10, 1890
... of these Darnley and Gladius made such a display at Napier recently--baulking at nearly every jump-- that I fancy they will have"Buckley's show," but if they ...

Perhaps one might consider a Buckley active (or insufficiently active) in N.Z. sports, as a possibility. However, it appears that the Buckley most avidly and extensively discussed in contemporary newspapers was George Buckley, a former director of the New Zealand Bank, In October 1889 Buckley made a bold and public declaration that "certain assets in the accounts of the Bank of New Zealand would prove to be about L354,000 to the bad." His charges were avidly discussed, sometimes ridiculed, and officially utterly dismissed.

I first noticed the George Buckley case in the following N.Z. newspaper, which happens to have the collocation "Buckley's chance"--though not yet in idiomatic usage. One might dismiss this as irrelevant; on the other hand, one might see it as attesting that the idiomatic sense may not yet have developed, but surely soon after did.

Papers Past — Star — 22 July 1890 — Mr Buckley.
Star - natlib.govt.nz - Jul 22, 1890
...  The promptitude of the success which has attended the Directors plans has effectually destroyed all Mr Buckley's chance of a hearing ...


Stephen Goranson
http://www.duke.edu/~goranson

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