Concept of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

[victor steinbok]

That's an interesting question and I would have thought it to be much
earlier. But looking at Wiki, it makes me wonder if the expression is always
interpreted in the same manner. I find the Wiki examples of Greek myths with
allegedly self-fulfilling prophecies less than compelling--some involve
vague predictions that are misinterpreted, others have the
butterfly-economics sort of effect, where a response to a prophecy sets off
a chain of accidents, eventually leading to the fulfillment of the prophecy.
All of these seem to be far removed from Merton's notion--or, for that
matter--from Gibbon's version. Among the Greek examples listed there, the
only one that falls into the Merton category appears to be one of Zeus
deciding to wage war on Cronos after the oracle predicts that Zeus will
overthrow him and take his place. But even this is somewhat unsatisfying
because Zeus takes action specifically intending to fulfill the prophecy.

The Krishna version--an Indian counterpart to Oedipus, without the
incest--seems to fit a bit better. Krishna is exiled after having been
smuggled out of prison where his mother was kept by her brother. And the
uncle continues to try to kill Krishna for years later. As a retribution for
the acts against him and his mother, Krishna eventually deposes his uncle
and kills him, thus fulfilling the prophecy. In this version, Krishna's acts
are a direct response to acts caused by the prophecy, but he is not acting
with the desire to fulfill the prophecy. In contrast, Oedipus is similarly
exiled, but there is nothing in his actions that is directly related to the
prophecy and the eventual encounter that leads to its fulfillment is
accidental.

My understanding of a self-fulfilling prophecy is that acts directly in
response to a prophesy causally contribute to its eventual fulfillment
without a direct intent to fulfill the prophecy. Most Greek myths fail the
first part (causal connection) while the Zeus/Cronos myth fails the second.

It is perfectly possible that my interpretation is too restrictive and the
Wiki contributors are correct. But, in my view, fatalism and inexorable fate
are not a part of self-fulfilling prophecy--they are essentially unrelated
concepts. On the other hand, for example, I would consider marketing based
on product sales rank to be a self-fulfilling prophecy (to a point)--i.e., a
product is marketed as best to buy because it is already best selling
(implying that the plurality or majority of consumers cannot be wrong
thereby inducing other consumers to buy it as well). Similar issues exist in
rankings based on polls and surveys--whether it's college football or
Zagat's restaurant reviews.

VS-)

On Mon, Aug 15, 2011 at 12:03 PM, Shapiro, Fred <fred.shapiro at yale.edu>wrote:

>
> I have recently come across the following line of Gibbon's in The Decline
> and Fall of the Roman Empire:  "The prediction, as it is usual, contributed
> to its own accomplishment."  This makes me wonder, what is the earliest
> known expression of the concept of the self-fulfilling prophecy?
>
> Fred Shapiro

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