Quote: It is difficult to predict, especially the future (variant in English 1956) (attrib Neils Bohr 1971); Question about Danish text

[Douglas G. Wilson]

On 6/20/2011 1:16 AM, Garson O'Toole wrote:
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> Sender:       American Dialect Society<ADS-L at LISTSERV.UGA.EDU>
> Poster:       Garson O'Toole<adsgarsonotoole at GMAIL.COM>
> Subject:      Quote: It is difficult to predict, especially the future (variant
>                in English 1956) (attrib Neils Bohr 1971); Question about Danish
>                text
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
> It’s difficult to prophesy, especially about the future.
>
> This saying has been credited to Yogi Berra, Samuel Goldwyn, Niels
> Bohr, Robert Storm Petersen, Oscar Wilde, Mark Twain (mandatory), and
> others.
>
> YBQ has a 1948 citation for an appearance of the aphorism in Danish in
> a book with the English title "Goodbye and Thanks" by K. K. Steincke.
> (I think the book is in Danish because I cannot find it in English
> with that title and author.)
>
> YBQ also lists a 1975 cite for the attribution to Niels Bohr who is
> very often given credit for the comment.
>
> Barry Popik investigated the maxim in 2010 and did an extensive and
> excellent job.
> http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/never_make_forecasts_especially_about_the_future/
>
> I was asked to explore this saying, and here are the key preliminary results:
> First appearance in English of a version of the saying:
>
> Cite: 1956, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A
> (General), "Proceedings of the Meeting", [Speaker: Bradford Hill],
> Page 147, Volume 119, Number 2,  Blackwell Publishing for the Royal
> Statistical Society. (JSTOR)
>
> Alas, it is always dangerous to prophesy, particularly, as the Danish
> proverb says, about the future.
>
> http://www.jstor.org/stable/2342881
>
>
> First appearance with the word "prediction" which is used in the most
> common modern variants:
>
> Cite: 1961 May, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political
> Science / Revue canadienne d'Economique et de Science politique,
> "Canada's Economic Prospects: A Survey of Ten Industries" by Jesse W.
> Markham, Page 264, Volume 27, Number 2, Blackwell Publishing on behalf
> of Canadian Economics Association. (JSTOR)
>
> "Prediction," goes an old Danish proverb, "is hazardous, especially
> about the future."
>
> http://www.jstor.org/stable/139149
>
>
> First attribution to the physicist Neils Bohr:
>
> Cite: 1971 December, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, On the Social
> Deployment of Science by Alan G. Mencher, Page 37, Educational
> Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc. (Google Books full view)
>
> We must test all intellectually respectable lines of inquiry, while
> keeping in mind that, as the great Danish physicist Neils Bohr said,
> "it is very difficult to predict - especially the future."
>
> http://books.google.com/books?id=JgsAAAAAMBAJ&q=Bohr#v=snippet&q=Bohr&f=false
>
>
> The Oxford Dictionary of Scientific Quotations gives a 1991
> attribution for Bohr and appends this note:
>
> Bohr always attributed the saying to Robert Storm Petersen
> (1882–1949), a well-known Danish artist and writer. However, the
> saying did NOT originate from Petersen. It may have been said in the
> Danish Parliament between 1935 and 1939 [Information supplied courtesy
> of Professor Erik Rüdinger, Niels Bohr Archive, Copenhagen].
>
>
> Thank you very much for reading to this point. You must be very
> interested in this quotation, and you can help. Perhaps you know
> Danish or you have a friend that knows Danish. The following link goes
> to a blog post that seems to present evidence that the quote appeared
> in Danish in 1918 and/or the 1930s. Can you evaluate this blog post to
> see if it contains useful information about the quotation?
>
> http://chaosbook.blogspot.com/2010/06/lundskovdk-citater.html
...

--

I will just note that the 1918 citation in the blog lacks the
"especially" (Danish "især" or "navnlig") and therefore is presumably
irrelevant since the sentence is then just "It is difficult to predict
the future" or so, which is unremarkable and doubtless said many times
in various languages long before. E.g., here is a Danish example from 1897:

<<Det er vanskeligt at spaa om Fremtiden.>>

http://tinyurl.com/435ym4n

(p. 108)

The 1930's story seems to be simply an assertion by K. K. Steincke. The
Steincke book is apparently _Farvel og Tak_ (1948).

-- Doug Wilson

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