the over-under is....

[Laurence Horn]

It's been used for a while now in contexts like the one you mention below, e.g. taking the under for whether a celebrity marriage (often although not always involving some random Kardashian) will last longer than a certain estimated number of days.  I agree that there's often a clear connection with sports commentary, so I'd guess this is more likely to appear on PTI ("Pardon the Interruption" on ESPN, a commentary show co-hosted by Michael Wilbon and the below-mentioned Kornheiser) than on a gossip show with no sports connection.

LH

On Apr 18, 2012, at 11:30 AM, George Thompson wrote:

> "Over-under" is a sports gambling term seemingly not in the recently
> revised "O" section of the OED.  It is a common betting proposition in
> football: the Pope of bookmakers sets a number, and the suckers bet on
> whether the final score of the two teams, combined, in the game will
> be over or under that number.  In making the bet, the sucker takes the
> over or the under.
>
> It has passed from referring to a literal betting proposition to a
> figurative sense.
>
> Searching the Proquest newspapers for "over under" turned out to be
> unprofitable, since that sequence in other contexts is far more common
> than I would have thought.
> Searching for "over under is" takes it back to September 24, 1979, in
> the Chicago Tribune:
> "Latest line.  Favorite Dallas, Points 3 Underdog Cleveland.
> Over-Under: 39  Over-Under is the betting line on the total number of
> points scored by the two teams in the game, over or under the line
> figure."
> In the LA Times, December 28, 1980, Jim Murray made plans to teach his
> new granddaughter that "over-under is a sucker bet", along with a
> number of other bits of no doubt hard-earned wisdom.
> By 1987, Tony Kornheiser was using it in other contexts, as for
> instance, the Washington Redskins line coach favors very big men, with
> 300 lbs as the over-under.  (not a verbatim quote).
>
> A report in the NYTimes Business Section today marks the first time I
> have noticed this expression in the mouth (or from the fingers) of
> someone not a sportswriter.  The first time noticed in the NYTimes,
> too, for that matter: I have mainly encountered it in the sports
> section of the [NY] Daily News.
>> From a story about Warren Buffett's announcement that he has developed
> prostate cancer: "“Go to any actuarial table; a healthy, stress-free
> 81-year-old has a 12-year life expectancy, and I’ll take the over on
> that,” said Whitney Tilson, the managing partner at T2 Partners and a
> Berkshire shareholder."  (NYTimes, April 18, 2012, B Section, p. 1,
> col. 6)
>
> No doubt the old wisecrack regarding an ill-matched marriage, "I give
> it six months" is now, in some circle, being expressed as "I put the
> over-under at six months".
>
> GAT
>
> George A. Thompson
> Author of A Documentary History of "The African Theatre", Northwestern
> Univ. Pr., 1998, but nothing much lately.  Working on a new edition,
> though.
>
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