Saying: Investment Advice: The market will fluctuate

[ADSGarson O'Toole]

The most well-known investment advice is also the funniest. According
to legend a young person approached one of the top businessmen in the
U.S. and asked with an overtone of desperation for advice about the
stock market. The prominent man looked gravely at his questioner and
replied:

I believe the market will fluctuate.

This comically inutile saying is not listed in the Yale Book of
Quotations or the Dictionary of Modern Proverbs, apparently.
Currently, the earliest version I have located featured Henry Poor
(founder of Standard and Poor's) and oilman John D. Rockefeller. This
version of the tale was about the rise and fall of a set of specific
stocks and not the market in general. The term "Standard Oils"
referred to the securities created after the breakup of Standard Oil.
The

[ref] 1922 October 18, Wall Street Journal, What of the Market?, Quote
Page 2, Column 5, New York. (ProQuest)[/ref]

[Begin excerpt]
Henry Poor used to tell this story: He walked down to the financial
district with John D. Rockefeller one morning and tried to elicit some
information as to the market for Standard Oils. The latter passed two
blocks before giving an answer and then said slowly, "I think they
will fluctuate." During the next few days they dropped over 30 points.
[End excerpt]


[ref] 1924 December 31, Washington Post, Straight Talks About Money:
Acting on Financial Tips by Mary Elizabeth Allen, Quote Page 10,
Column 5, Washington D.C. (ProQuest)[/ref]

[Begin excerpt]
A smart young man is said to have approached Mr. Rockefeller with the
question, "Mr. Rockefeller, what do you think Standard Oil stocks will
do?" After ponderous deliberation, the reply was, "Young man, I think
they will fluctuate."
[End excerpt]


By 1926 a variant anecdote with J. P. Morgan was in circulation. This
version was about the stock market in general.

[ref] 1926, Security Speculation: The Dazzling Adventure by Laurence
H. Sloan (Laurence Henry Sloan), Quote Page 17, Harper & Brothers, New
York and London. (Verified on paper)[/ref]

[Begin excerpt]
Legend avers that an alert young man once found himself in the
immediate presence of the late Mr. J. P. Morgan. Seeking to improve
the golden moment, he ventured to inquire Mr. Morgan's opinion as to
the future course of the stock market. The alleged reply has become
classic: "Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate."

It did. It always has. Perhaps it always will. In the main, security
prices are always and eternally going somewhere
[End excerpt]


Here is an instance with John D. Rockefeller and advice about the
general stock market. The word "thought" was spelled "thot" in the
newspaper text:

[ref] 1927 January 11, The Coshocton Tribune, Jollier, Quote Page 6,
Column 4, Coshocton, Ohio. (NewspaperArchive)[/ref]

[Begin excerpt]
John D. Rockefeller, asked three years ago what he thot the stock
market would do, replied "I think it will fluctuate." The tip is still
good.
[End excerpt]


Here is an instance with William Rockefeller instead of John D.

[ref] 1928, Morrow's Almanack for the Year of Our Lord 1929, The Stock
Market for 1929 by Harold T. Johnson, Page 244, William Morrow & Co.,
New York. (Verified with scans thanks to the Sarasota History Center
of Sarasota, Florida)[/ref]

[Begin excerpt]
It was during the decade before the World War when William
Rockefeller, then a leading figure in the financial world, was
accosted on lower Broadway by a presumptuous acquaintance, with the
question, "What do you think, Mr. Rockefeller, Standard Oil is going
to do?" and he replied in his slow way, cane shaking in hand (Mr.
Rockefeller suffered from palsy) "I expect it will fluctuate."
[End excerpt]


Barry Popik has valuable information that begins with a 1934 citation

http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/it_will_fluctuate_j_pierpont_morgan


Earlier instances for John D. Rockefeller or J. P. Morgan would be
very interesting. Thanks for any help you can provide.

Garson

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