[Ads-l] dummymander

[James Landau]

from an email from an outfit called "Blue Future", sent from 
ourbluefuture.usNick Guthman, Blue Future hello at ourbluefuture.us
Google shows a number of cites for "dummymander" so this cannot be the first usage.
If anyone wishes to see the complete email, email me and I will send it.<quote><snip> There's a term in redistricting circles for a gerrymander that blows up in the party's face: a dummymander.
Here's how it works. Gerrymandering is about taking competitive districts – the ones where either party could win – and packing them with enough of your own voters to push them safely out of reach. The goal is to manufacture a cushion.

The problem? There are only so many Republican voters to go around.

When you redraw a map to squeeze out four more safe seats, you have to pull Republican voters from somewhere. That means your previously bulletproof R+15 district might slide to R+11. Your R+11 might become R+7. You've traded a few fortresses for a lot of soft targets.

Now look at the environment those maps are going to face in November.

The latest Emerson likely voter poll puts Democrats at +10 on the generic congressional ballot. Trump's approval has cratered to around 40% – his worst numbers of his second term. Special elections across the country have been breaking for Democrats by an average of 15 points.

Do the math: if you gerrymander yourself a R+10 cushion in a district, and Democrats are running +10 nationally, you've just made that seat a toss-up. And the safe seat you cannibalized to build it? Now suddenly competitive too.
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