[Ads-l] Quote Origin: There Is a World Market for About Five Computers

[ADSGarson O'Toole]

The statement in the subject line has been attributed to Thomas J.
Watson Sr. and Thomas J. Watson Jr. The initial article on this topic
was posted to the Quote Investigator website a few days ago as noticed
by Pete Morris. Now, I have expanded the QI article with several
additional citations. Here is a link:

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2026/08/29/market-five/

Here is an overview displaying dates, excerpts, and attributions.

1944 Oct: Eight years ago, when Aiken began work on mathematical plans
for this machine, he supposed that only one such capacious calculator
would ever be built. He could not conceive of there being enough work
for more than one such giant (Claim about Howard H. Aiken in "Popular
Science Monthly")

1953 Apr 28: As a result of our trip, on which we expected to get
orders for five machines, we came home with orders for 18 (Remark by
Thomas J. Watson Jr. about the model 701 Electronic Data Processing
Machine at IBM's annual stockholders meeting)

1960 Mar 29: Using electric machines to tabulate census … five
electronic computers capable of doing the job of 2,000 card punch
operators (Journalist Julia Spiegelman in "The Christian Science
Monitor")

1962 Apr: Who made the now classic prediction that the total
requirement for computing power in the U. S. would be six machines?
(Question posed by "Datamation" editor Harold Bergstein to computer
pioneers J. Presper Eckert and John Mauchly)

1962 Apr: Let's get orders for six machines to get us enough backlog
to make it worthwhile to go ahead with the ENIAC project. (Attributed
to John Mauchly by J. Presper Eckert in "Datamation")

1962 Apr: If six machines were built … we'd never be able to train
enough people to program enough problems for these machines.
(Attributed to Howard H. Aiken by J. Presper Eckert in "Datamation")

1965 May 25: IBM CEO Thomas Watson initially wanted nothing to do with
the new machines … Watson estimated the US economy's need at no more
than five (Prediction attributed to Thomas J. Watson Jr. in "Der
Spiegel" magazine; translated from German to English)

1967 Jan 09: In the late nineteen-forties an authority predicted that
only six machines would be needed to serve the nation (Claim by "New
York Times" journalist William D. Smith)

1974 Jul 25: In another development at Sperry, the computer was
invented which was to have a limited market of perhaps five machines
(U.S. Senate testimony by security analyst Marilyn Walter-Carlson)

1981: I think there is a world market for about five computers
(Attributed to Thomas J. Watson in "Facts and Fallacies")

1981 Feb 15: He predicted that the world would need only six such
machines. (Prediction attributed to Howard H. Aiken in an article by
journalist Bill Kent of the "Courier-Post" in Camden, New Jersey. The
machine was the ENIAC)

1983: I think there is a world market for about five computers
(Attributed to Thomas J. Watson circa 1958 in "303 of the World's
Worst Predictions")

1984: I think there is a world market for about five computers
(Attributed to Thomas J. Watson circa 1943 in "The Experts Speak")

1993: Thomas J. Watson … estimated that the total demand for them
would not exceed twenty five machines (Attributed to Thomas J. Watson
Sr. in "Stan Veit's History of the Personal Computer")

2003: No evidence exists that Watson made the remark about five
computers (Remark in "The Maverick and His Machine: Thomas Watson Sr.
and the Making of IBM" by Kevin Maney)

[Begin acknowledgement excerpt]
Thanks to previous research, such as Ralph Keyes’s work in “The Quote
Verifier”, Fred R. Shapiro’s work in “The New Yale Book of
Quotations”, and I. B. Cohen’s work in the article “Howard Aiken on
the number of computers needed for the nation” published in the 1998
July-September issue of “IEEE Annals of the History of Computing”.

Thanks to Pete Morris who pointed out a piece by researcher Fred R.
Shapiro which mentioned the remark made by Thomas J. Watson Jr. in
1953. Also, thanks to Ralf Buelow who pointed out the 1965 article in
“Der Spiegel”. In addition, thanks to Allan Olley who pointed out the
1998 article in the “IEEE Annals of the History of Computing” which
contained an excerpt from the 1962 piece in “Datamation”. Olley also
pointed out other evidence.
[End acknowledgement excerpt]

Feedback welcome
Garson O'Toole

On Tue, Sep 1, 2026 at 7:57 AM Pete Morris <mr_peter_morris at outlook.com> wrote:
>
> Quote Origin: I Think There Is a World Market for About Five Computers
>
> https://quoteinvestigator.com/2026/08/29/market-five/#more-453990
>
> Here's an article exploring the origin.  From Fred Shapiro, no less.
> It appears  that the phrase is a misquote of remarks that were actually
> said.
>
> https://freakonomics.com/2008/04/our-daily-bleg-did-ibm-really-see-a-world-market-for-about-five-computers/
> --
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