Population densities in Roman-Age Europe?

Thu Jun 5 13:17:29 UTC 2014

On Jun 5, 2014, at 5:03 AM, 'Jamie Polichak' jamiepolichak at hotmail.com [gothic-l] <gothic-l at yahoogroups.com> wrote:

> I don’t think there’s anything wrong with earlier populations exceeding later ones, and include that in my comment. It happens all the time. The population of Rome itself is said to have crashed from about a million in the early 4th century to a few hundred thousand in the early 5th century. Many major US cities have had their populations halved since the 1950s-60s. Parts of northern Germany still have fewer people than they did prior to the 30 Years’ War that ended in 1648.
>  
> What I doubt is that, if a population of 1.5 million is accurate for 1st C BC, doubling that to 3 million by... when, exactly?

Well, what’s the estimate of 1.5 million based on? I know that estimates of 3-4 million are based on the density of settlement, based on multiple field surveys, and the size of towns. I would estimate the pre-Roman population at more than 2 million, because of the relative sizes of corresponding pre-Roman and Roman towns where we can compare them. ottomh, pre-Roman Verlamio [St. Albans] was larger than Roman Verulamium, it probably lost out to Londonium though.

>  That’s the second doubt. We’re referring to Roman-age European populations as if that were a static period. Even Roman Britain, we have nearly 400 years. So when exactly is the 3 million figure for? 100 AD? 200 AD? 300 AD? how many were left after 410 when the Romans pulled out?

About 300, because that’s when most of the urban walls were built. Note that northern Gallia was in decline by that time, and parts of the Septem Provinciae had suffered some kind of collapse by that time.

> I also said that I had doubts about research from before the mid-late 1990s for reasons already mentioned. To which I will add the use of highly sophisticated satellite systems with ground-penetrating capabilities and resolutions on the m3 level (much better, for the security and military organizations of the nations controlling them). New sites are being found all over the world, and it is looking like the claims of very high populations in the Amazon basin prior to European contact were closer to right than those who claimed it was a green wasteland.

I can’t find that discussion. I see your arguments against census data and Caesar’s lies, and your post about geography, climate, and lower Roman town densities.

>  I’m skeptical about data published in 1996, gathered earlier. We are learning that traditional archaeology and historiography can be critical at the local level, but very poorly calibrated at the regional or continental level. And knowledge of the geographic and human history of the North Sea region has increased vastly in this century, those portions currently dry ground and those currently submerged. There are thousands of pages of extremely finely detailed research data published in the Netherlands. That is a place where climate and demography have clashed for millennia, moreso than just about anywhere else in Europe.
>  
> I have no particular intellectual or otherwise investment in any particular population figures for Roman Britain or anywhere else. 3 million is possible. But so is 2 million. So is a big dip from the 1.5 million around invasion time to 1 million with a rise over the next few centuries from there to 3 million around the end of the 2ndC AD with a decline to 1 million by the early 4thC.
>  
> But aside from Britain’s own population, my main concern was using Roman Britain population estimates as a guide for population estimates anywhere but Roman Britain. But especially places that are colder, larger, and more subject to population transitions on the scale of even years much less centuries.

Well, I’d rather have work directly dealing with each region… but I’m not finding it.

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