The magic of ignorance - English a false prophet

[R. A. Stegemann]

Hi everyone,

After reading most of what everyone has posted on this subject I
decided to do a little homework with regard to Malaysia and came up
with results very similar to those that I found for Hong Kong. I will
present a portion of them below. Certainly not all of them apply to
Hong Kong.

MALAYSIA'S MACROECONOMY
Malaysian exports in 2001 came to US$88.2 billion. In that same year
Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) was recorded at just over US$88
billion. These are two facts which taken together tell us that Malaysia
is exporting more than it is producing. Indeed, one might conclude from
these that all Malaysians should be learning English just to survive.
Now let us take a closer look.

With only US$2 billion of these exports accounted for by Malaysia’s
re-exports during this same period, we must assume that a large amount
of Malaysia’s total export value involved the assembly of overseas
built component parts. Evidence for this can be found in the high
proportion of total import value accounted for by the importation  of
intermediate goods -- a whopping 72.6%!  Further evidence for this can
be observed by comparing Malaysian manufacturers as a proportion of
total GDP with Malaysian manufacturers as a proportion of total
exports. In 2001 domestic manufacturers accounted for just under 30% of
gross domestic production. As a proportion of total exports they
accounted for over 85%. These two figures differ by nearly a multiple
of three!

In order to obtain a realistic approximation of Malaysia's domestic
economic activity devoted to trade we must eliminate from the total
value of manufactured exports the value of imported intermediate goods
that go into the production of manufactured exports. Subtracting from
total manufactured exports the value of intermediate goods imported in
2001 provides us with only a rough approximation, as not all
manufactured output that employs imported intermediate goods is likely
to be exported. Since we are not provided with exact figures, and other
rough estimates will shift us in the opposite direction, let us not be
deterred for want of precision.

In 2001 total domestic exports amounted to US$86.3 billion -- namely,
the total value of exports (US$88.2 billion) less re-exports (US$1.94
billion). Of these, 85.4 percent were devoted to manufacturers. The
total value of imports during this same period amounted to US$73. 9
billion. of which intermediate goods constituted 72.6 per cent. Thus,
manufactured exports accounted for US$73.7 billion and intermediate
goods imports accounted for approximately US$53.6 billion. Subtracting
this latter figure from the former yields US$20.1. Adding this value to
the value of nonmanufactured exports (US$ 12.6 billion) yields US$32.7
billion. Dividing  this value by Malaysia’s gross domestic product
(US$88.0) in 2001 obtains that amount of Malaysia’s economy devoted to
external trade -- namely, 37.2 percent.

Though a substantial amount, 37.2 percent is a very far cry from what
one observes when reviewing Malaysia’s external trade balances for the
first time. One must also keep in mind that not all economic activity
that goes into the production of goods destined for exports requires a
direct interface with the outside. An assembly worker producing
electronic equipment for export may not be required to know any English
in order to perform his or her task well. On the other hand, many of
those involved in overseas sales probably require very good command of
English in order to consumate their orders. In fact, as a percentage of
gross domestic product only 13.9 percent of total economic activity in
Malaysia in 2001 was devoted to trade -- somewhat less than half that
devoted to the production of manufactured goods and about twice that
devoted to transport and communication. Under the assumption that all
foreign trade in Malaysia were conducted in English, we are looking at
an English language requirement of varying quality amounting to no more
than 25 percent of all economic activity.

This does not mean, of course, that English is not required in other
areas of the economy as well, but as a proportion of Malaysia’s total
economic activity these various other domains cannot be substantial.

One should also keep in mind that in a developing economy much economic
activity is never counted, as only that activity which is taxed ever
gets recorded. Thus, the estimated 25 percent figure provided above is
likely high. This point is easily highlighted when one considers that a
full 38% of the Malaysian population lived in nonurban areas in 2000,
but under 20% of all economic activity was devoted to agriculture,
mining, and other rural human economic endeavor. Now let us turn to
Malaysia’s demography.

MALAYSIAN DEMOGRAPHY AND EDUCATION
In 2001 there were 24 million people resident in Malaysia. Of these,
somewhat under 10 milllion were considered a part of the Malaysian work
force. In fact, only 39.7 percent of the total population of Malaysia
was counted by the national government as employed in 2001. If we
multiply this figure times our likely generous estimate of total
domestic production devoted to external trade, we obtain a figure very
close to 10 percent.

Turning to Malaysia's major ethnic groups we discover that in 2001
there were just about as many Malay speakers as there were Malaysians
living in urban centers -- about 62 percent. Obviously not all of these
lived in cities, else the recent concern of our fellow contributer,
Saran Gill, and others would never have been expressed. Ethnic Chinese,
South Asian, and non-Malaysians constituted the remaining 24.8, 7.4,
and 5.6 percent of the population, respectively.

According to Saran Gill's book entitled International Communication:
English Language Challenges for Malaysia there were 370,898 Malaysians
enrolled in institutions of higher education during the academic year
1999/2000. Together, these made up just over 1.5 percent of the total
population and about 4 percent of Malaysia's total work force.
Obviously, these students are employed far longer than they go to
school, and over time they become a much larger portion of the total
work force -- about 5 times larger. Thus, when we discuss Malaysia's
elite we are discussing about 7.5% of the total population and under
20% of Malaysia's actively employed. If we make the generous assumption
that all of these employed graduates will eventually find work in the
international sector, we obtain about 2 percent of the population that
will require an excellent command of the English language. For this
teeny minority 100 percent of the entire population should be compelled
to study mathematics and science in English?

CONCLUSION

On page 118 of Saran Gill's above mentioned work she wrote, "It must be
remembered that the right of the people to acquire the English language
does not mean the right of the English language over the people -- a
pragmatic approach needs to be adopted to face the challenges of
internationalization." I submit that Malaysians should be little
concerned about "the right of the English language over the people",
but rather about the right of an ignorant, self-serving elite to
dictate what should be a matter of individual choice to the people.

As an economist by training I have little notion about what most
contributors on this board know about expected value. In brief, it is
the present value of your discounted, lifetime opportunities weighted
by your chances of obtaining each.

When a child is born, already some of the opportunities available to
other children, are not available to him. Moreover, as he grows older,
it is not a matter of more doors becoming open; rather, it is a matter
of an increasingly larger number of doors becoming closed. Now, it may
not be possible for anyone to predict the Bill Gates of our future, but
I should think that predicting one's chances of becoming a Malaysian
bureaucrat or senior corporate financial officer become increasingly
clear, as one advance from primary 1 to primary 6 and beyond. In
Singapore the cut is commonly made after primary 3.

Hamo