Putin eyes full merger with Belarus

[Harold F. Schiffman]

from the December 10, 2007 edition -
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1210/p01s02-woeu.html

Putin eyes full merger with Belarus

The union, to be agreed on this week, could enable Russia's popular
president to retain power by creating a new Constitution.

By Fred Weir | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

MOSCOW

President Vladimir Putin may be about to unveil a political bombshell: a
full-scale union between Russia and its smaller Slavic neighbor Belarus.
It's a plan that not only would expand Russia's territory and national
prestige; it could also give Mr. Putin, required to step down when his
second term ends in March, a new lease on power by producing a fresh
Constitution. Citing Kremlin sources, the independent Ekho Moskvy radio
station reported Friday that Putin and Belarussian President Alexander
Lukashenko will sign a union treaty during Putin's two-day visit to Minsk
this week.

A Kremlin spokesman said the report came "from the realm of speculative
fantasies," though he did not deny that the long-debated Russia-Belarus
union might be on the verge of realization. The purported deal, to be
endorsed by popular referendum, would involve a full merger of the two
countries, including common currency, legal system, armed forces, and
state symbols. Putin would be likely to become the new superstate's
provisional leader and Mr. Lukashenko its speaker of parliament, the
station said.

Belarus's beleaguered opposition called on Belarussians to the streets
this week to protest "imminent annexation" by Russia. "It has become clear
that Russia will use economic levers [such as high energy prices] to annex
Belarus, or at least compel it to join a 'union state,' " Viktar
Ivashkevich, deputy head of the Belarussian Popular Front coalition, said
in a statement.

Belarus is Russia's closest ally among ex-Soviet states and has long been
dependent on Moscow for energy supplies, security assistance, and economic
subsidies. The two countries have had a partial union since 1996, when
Lukashenko championed the idea. Since the youthful and popular Putin took
power from a weak Boris Yeltsin, however, Lukashenko has cooled to the
idea.

But Russia has racheted up the pressure on Lukashenko. Last week the
Russian state gas monopoly Gazprom announced a new round of hikes that
will triple the price Belarus paid barely a year ago. "As Lukashenko
searches for ways to survive politically, it may be that cutting a deal
with Putin is starting to look like his best option," says Nikolai Petrov,
an expert with the Carnegie Center in Moscow.

Moscow has been seething with speculation about Putin's endgame. As the
March presidential elections approach, Putin has not been acting like a
politician on the eve of retirement. He personally led the electoral
ticket of the United Russia party, which won a commanding 64 percent
majority in parliamentary elections last week  a victory which he said
gives him a "moral mandate" to continue exercising power.

But one by one, theories about how he will do that have collapsed. Putin
did not resign before the presidential election campaign officially began,
which could have circumvented the constitutional limit of two consecutive
terms and enabled him to run again in March. Last week he declined the
State Duma seat he had won, ruling out scenarios that saw him as head of a
parliamentary majority.

"One of Putin's main characteristics is to never disclose his plan until
the last moment," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global
Affairs, a foreign policy journal. "He allows all sorts of misimpressions
to thrive, while he bides his time and decides what he wants to do."

Experts say a Russia-Belarus union might provide the perfect solution for
Putin. "This Russia-Belarus union looks like a very timely plan, one
that's closely connected with all the other things that are going on,
politically, right now," says Mr. Petrov. A referendum could be held as
early as March, in both countries, to approve the Constitution of the new
state, followed by elections for its key leaders, says Petrov.

Surveys show that people in mainly Russian-speaking Belarus remain deeply
nostalgic for the former Soviet Union and strongly back the idea of
reunification with Russia. With a two-thirds majority in the Duma, Putin
would be unlikely to face impediments at home.

"It's a very serious project. Reunification is something vast majorities
in both Russia and Belarus want," says Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected
analyst. He says the final details are yet to be worked out, but the basic
plan under discussion would involve giant, oil-rich Russia absorbing tiny,
economically dependent Belarus in much the way China took over the former
British colony of Hong Kong a decade ago. "There are powerful economic and
security reasons to go ahead," says Markov.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1210/p01s02-woeu.htm


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