Iraq: The Kirkuk Referendum: Another Tragic Flaw in U.S. Foreign Policy

Wed Dec 12 14:44:35 UTC 2007

The Kirkuk Referendum: Another Tragic Flaw in U.S. Foreign Policy

Analysis by Webster Brooks 111, Editor USIP

The United States should cut its hypocritical rhetoric about
"supporting democracy" and complaining that Iraq's leaders won't make
the "tough decisions", and support the parliament's decision to hold a
referendum on the status of Kirkuk in 2007. Few issues in Iraq and the
Persian Gulf are more explosive than this referendum that will likely
result in the highly contested oil rich city of Kirkuk joining
Kurdistan's burgeoning autonomous region. Despite the Iraqi
constitution's explicit language in Article 140, calling for the
referendum to be held this year, President Bush, all 535 congressional
members and every 2008 presidential candidate has refused to support
holding the referendum as scheduled---a truly bi-partisan display of
cowardice and sophomoric foreign policy acumen.

The controversial decision on Kirkuk was announced on Saturday March
31, by Iraq's Sunni justice minister Hashem al-Shibli. The next day,
al-Shibli resigned. The referendum to determine whether the city of
Kirkuk in Northern Iraq, should join the Kurdish autonomous region was
mandated to be held before the end of 2007. In accordance with the new
Iraqi Constitution, a resettlement process must be administered in the
run-up to the referendum, and the policy of forced "arabization" of
Kirkuk carried out by Saddam Hussein in the 1980's reversed. Under
that policy, thousands of Kurdish citizens were displaced from Kirkuk
and sent to Baghdad and other regions in Iraq. The agreement provides
that thousands of Arabs who settled in Kirkuk would be compensated
with $15,000 and land if they return to their original homes. Kurdish
citizens who were displaced would be granted the right of return, and
the right to participate in the referendum. Kirkuk's local authorities
will begin distributing forms to Arab families to assess who is
eligible for resettlement, which will be done on a voluntary basis.
Preliminary estimates indicate that as many as 70,000 to 90,000 Arab
citizens could be resettled. Article 140 also calls for redrawing of
boundaries of the Kirkuk province and conducting a new census. Because
the census will be a controversial issue, the U.S. Iran Peace Project
has recommended that the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional
Government call for impartial observers to be present during its
administration, and during the referendum as well.

For the Kurds, who participated in two national elections to help form
the Iraqi government, respected the rights of its Christian, Sunni,
Turkmen, Chaldean and Assyrian minorities in Kurdistan's election, and
ended violence in its autonomous region, the actions of the United
States border on outright treachery. President Bush has called for an
indefinite delay of the referendum. The Iraq-Study Group report
counseled against the referendum, although the group never bothered to
visit Kurdistan. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani (born in Kirkuk), the
Kurdish Regional Government and virtually every Kurdish organization
has denounced the Iraq Study Group reports recommendations as a sham.
But as the United States is discovering, the Kurds are not going to be
denied. The Kurdistan Observer (On-line) reported that at a recent
meeting in Kirkuk, parliament member Mulla Bakhtiar of the Iraqi
Kurdistan Patriotic Party (PUK) threatened to annex Kirkuk, saying
that if the referendum was not held in November 2007 "then we will
take over Kirkuk and it will be part of Kurdistan." In mid-March,
Kurdish leaders threatened to quit the government in Baghdad, unless
the cabinet of Nuri al-Maliki stopped dragging its feet on the
referendum. Knowing his government cannot survive without maintaining
the ongoing Shiia-Kurdish alliance, Maliki acquiesced and an agreement
was reached.

Iraq's Sunni community has denounced the referendum and the policy of
reversing Saddam Hussein's forced "arabization" of Kirkuk. Ironically,
most of the Arabs that were re-settled in Kirkuk were Shiia from
Southern Iraq. Nassar al-Rubaie, head of the radical Shi'ite cleric
Moqtada al-Sadr's parliamentary bloc also announced their opposition
to the plan. Al-Rubaie issued a statement saying they would lead a
campaign to collect signatures to delay the referendum. As the U.S.
Iran Peace Project reported in a previous article, al-Sadr's bloc
opposed an earlier legislative measure by rival SCIRI-led forces to
establish a Shiite dominated super-autonomous region in southern Iraq.
Apparently, al-Sadr will align his forces with anyone to prevent the
weakening of the Iraq's central government in Baghdad, which he still
seeks to dominate with his Mahdi Army. In addition, al-Sadr is
feverishly maneuvering to forestall any efforts that would strengthen
Shiite or Kurdish autonomous regional claims to oil revenue, to the
exclusion of Baghdad. The new legislation before the Iraqi parliament
that proposes to equally share oil revenues between Iraq's different
regions has yet to go into effect.

Outside of Iraq, formidable opposition to the Kirkuk referendum exist
as well. Saudi Arabian officials expressed grave concern that the
referendum will lead to increased violence between Iraq's ethnic and
religious groups. This is a bizarre position coming from the House of
Saud that has been financing Sunni terrorists since the inception of
the Iraq War. In February, the Saudis even threatened to increase aid
to the insurgency if the U.S. doesn't contain Iranian influence in
Iraq. The Jordanians and Egyptians have been doing the same, although
President Bush and the U.S. Congress remain conspicuously silent on
this point. Unable to stop the Kurds drive to hold the referendum,
newspapers in Baghdad are now reporting that the Saudis offered
Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani $2 billion to
give up demands that Kirkuk be named the capital of Kurdistan.
Further, the Saudis asked the Kurdish leaders to put a 10-year freeze
on any plans to incorporate Kirkuk into Kurdistan's autonomous region.
Barzani is reported to have rejected the elegant set of shackles
offered by the Saudis. The Saudis seem not to grasp the concept that
Kurdish freedom and dignity is not for sale.

Leading the camp of opposition to the Kirkuk referendum are the
Democratic and Republican party apologists in the United States. They
fear the economic clout and political independence Kurdistan would
gain by adding an oil-rich Kirkuk to its region will push Iraq
dangerously close to a partitioned state. U.S. policy makers are in a
state of denial. Iraq is virtually partitioned now, and the central
government doesn't control much outside of the Green Zone in Baghdad.
Bush and the Republicans still entertain illusions that the U.S. will
have more leverage over the Kurds, Sunni and Shiia as long as Iraq
remains a unitary state. A weak central government with strong
autonomous regions means factions will exercise more independence and
the Iranians and others will have greater freedom to fish in troubled
waters. The Democrats could care less about Kurdistan or Iraq's
future. They just want to get U.S. troops out of Iraq. Democrats think
the Kirkuk referendum is too messy, complicated and divisive. God
forbid, a small thing like freedom for the world's largest ethnic
group without a homeland should interfere with their precious
timetable for troop withdrawals.

The hysteria mongers among Kurdistan's detractors insist that the
Kirkuk referendum could unleash Turkey to invade Kurdistan. The
chances that Turkey will invade Kurdistan are extremely remote. Turkey
can pound its chest, but if they invade Kurdistan they will be met
with the most determined resisitance of the Pesh Merga, the Iraqi
Kurdish population, and most likely a dangerous rearguard action by
Turkish Kurds. Turkey's drive to gain membership in the European Union
would be dead in the water. Turkey has no historical claim to Kirkuk's
oil fields, nor any role as a military protectorate of Kurdistan's
Turkman community which is being treated with respect and dignity.
Indeed, Seyfin Demirci, Chairman of the Turkmen Democratic Union Party
is supporting the referendum for Kirkuk in 2007. Turkey has
substantial and growing and investments in Kurdistan, particularly in
the oil sector; the most reliable indicator that they are slowly
coming to terms with the reality that an emerging Kurdistan is an idea
whose time has come.

The failure of the U.S. to guarantee Kurdistan's security in the event
of a Turkish invasion is further evidence that the U.S. adamently
opposes a strong Kurdish autonomous region. Moreover, the U.S. still
refuses to officially recognize the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG).
Instead of crying about how the Kirkuk referendum threatens stability
in Iraq, Republicans and Democrats should be supporting the referendum
and offering support for a security plan for the Kirkuk elections. The
U.S. should also offer technical and logistical support for conducting
the census. It's not going to happen. By standing off on the
sidelines, the U.S. is creating an opening for other powers,
particularly Iran to fill Kurdistan's economic and security void.
Kurdistan needs vital economic assistance and development capital.
Iran has maintained good relations with Kurdistan and have
longstanding ties with both Jalal Talabani and KRG President Barzani's
family. The border that Iran shares with Kurdistan gives the Iranians
a decisive advantage in building a strategic relationship with
Kurdistan. Tehran's relationship with its own large Kurdish population
is a serious internal strategic consideration that is also driving
Iran's clerical leaders to cultivate deeper ties with Irbil. In a
neighborhood in which Iran has few friends, non-Arab Kurdistan
represents the potential to continue it's break-out from the isolation
the west seeks to impose on Tehran. Conversely, Kurdistan's drive to
expand its autonomy is meeting with stiff international resistance,
and the KRG stands to benefit from good relations with Iran.

The spring descending on Irbil is an appropriate metaphor for
Kurdistan as it enters a most decisive showdown on the Kirkuk
referendum. The road to the Kirkuk referendum will be full of twist
and turns. The Kurds should be under no illusions that the United
States will support the Kirkuk referendum. Lamentably, it's not going
to happen. There will be increased violence and more political
intrigue to come, as the forces of reaction mobilize to sabatage the
referendum. But the winds of change are with the Kurds, who have been
demanding, fighting and dying in the hundreds of thousands for
national autonomy since the early 1800's. They have waited long
enough. The Kurds have a saying that "we have no friends but the
mountains." To that we might add, the mountains and the Pesh Merga.

http://www.kurdishaspect.com/doc121107USIP.html
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