Putin Goes to Belarus for Talks on Union

[Harold F. Schiffman]

Putin Goes to Belarus for Talks on Union

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV  16 hours ago

MOSCOW (AP)  Vladimir Putin could become the leader of a land even larger
than Russia a development that may hinge on talks beginning Thursday in
neighboring Belarus. Putin has unexpectedly revived efforts to create a
single state from the two former Soviet republics a merger that would
expand his options for exercising power after he steps down from the
Russian presidency next year. Putin heads to the Belarusian capital,
Minsk, on Thursday for discussions on a framework for the long-debated
union, fleshing out an existing agreement that has meant little in
practice.

A merger of Russia and Belarus could allow Putin to leave the Russian
presidency as promised in May yet still remain a chief of state. "I
wouldn't be surprised if Putin tries to speed up a union with Belarus ...
to become the president of the unified state," said Gennady Zyuganov,
Russia's Communist Party chief. Putin, who has indicated he will seek to
retain significant influence after term limits force him from the Kremlin,
does have at least one other option.

On Monday, he said he supported his protege, first deputy prime minister
Dmitry Medvedev, to become Russia's next president. Medvedev instantly
became the overwhelming favorite in the March 2 vote. Medvedev, in turn,
asked Putin on Tuesday to be his prime minister. Putin has not commented
publicly on the offer. But First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, a
senior government official and close Putin ally, said Wednesday that Putin
was unlikely to respond swiftly to the proposal. The creation of a single
state could give Putin an alternative to the Russian prime minister's
post.

If the two countries can agree, it would mark the first merger of a former
Soviet state with Russia since the Soviet Union split apart in 1991 a step
that would make many Russians proud. But the move could damage Russia's
relations with the West, especially if Moscow is seen as using pipelines
that supply Belarus with natural gas to force the smaller country into an
agreement. Ahead of Putin's visit, Belarus' beleaguered Western-oriented
political opposition was already fighting the idea of a merger. Police on
Wednesday forced some 200 protesters from a Minsk square where they waved
flags and chanted "No union with imperial Russia!"

One of the leaders of the opposition Young Front was knocked off his feet
and stomped on by riot police. He was bundled into an ambulance,
unconscious. Some analysts doubt a deal can be reached, because Belarus
President Alexander Lukashenko a Soviet-style leader dubbed Europe's last
dictator by the West is unlikely to cede power. Lukashenko's office said
last week the talks between Putin, Lukashenko and other ranking officials
would focus on a draft constitution of a union. Russia's Ekho Moskvy radio
quoted unidentified members of the Lukashenko administration as saying
Moscow and Minsk had struck a deal: Putin, the sources said, would become
president of a Russia-Belarus union while Lukashenko would become the
speaker of its parliament.

Officials in Moscow and Minsk have denied the report, but politicians and
commentators in both countries agree that Putin's trip signals a renewed
interest in the merger. When Medvedev proposed that Putin become prime
minister, many analysts saw it as the Kremlin's preferred plan to maintain
his influence. But some said Putin would never accept what would amount to
a demotion. Pavel Borodin, secretary of the existing Russian-Belarusian
executive body, said Wednesday that drafts of the constitution being
considered would give the president of a new unified country the power to
rule over the current national governments.

He said the new constitution would be subject to approval by each nation's
parliament and would be put to voters in national referendums. Putin could
find it difficult to persuade the Belarusian leader to relinquish his
country's independence. And Lukashenko seems to lack the leverage needed
to win an agreement that favors Belarus, which has a population of just
9.7 million compared to Russia's 141.4 million. "Putin and Lukashenko have
sought to outmaneuver and cheat one another over the past few years," said
Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine.

Russia and Belarus signed a union agreement in 1996 that envisaged close
political, economic and military ties, but efforts to achieve a full
merger have foundered. In the 1990s, Lukashenko pushed for the creation of
a single state, apparently hoping to take reins from Russia's ailing
President Boris Yeltsin. Putin's election in 2000 demolished Lukashenko's
hopes to rule both countries. Two years later the Belarusian leader
angrily rejected a Kremlin proposal for incorporating his nation into the
Russian Federation leaving him without a job.

Bilateral relations soured. Lukashenko described Russia as a "huge
monster," saying Moscow's actions were worse than those of Nazi Germany,
which reduced much of Soviet Belarus to ruins in World War II. If
Lukashenko refuses to cede control, the Kremlin could try to force his
hand by using its most powerful weapon: energy. At the year's start,
Russia more than doubled the price of natural gas and imposed a customs
duty making oil more expensive. To pay its bills, Belarus was forced to
sell half of its national gas pipeline company to Gazprom, Russia's state
gas monopoly.

In August, Gazprom threatened to halt future natural gas shipments if
Belarus failed to pay what it already owed. The two sides negotiated a
settlement, but the threat of a further increase in energy prices still
looms over Belarus' heavily subsidized, Soviet-style economy.

Associated Press writer Yuras Karmanau contributed to this report from
Minsk, Belarus

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gdKWnUyTp5IZ0Li01NSj4xmACUMgD8TG71U01

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