[lg policy] Kazakhstan's president resigns

Sat Mar 30 14:34:40 UTC 2019

Kazakhstan President Nazarbayev resigns amid mounting political crisisBy
David Levine and Clara Weiss
30 March 2019

In a sign of growing social and political turmoil in Central Asia,
Kazakhstan’s 78-year-old president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has been head
of state of the country since its formation out of the dissolution of the
Soviet Union in 1991, announced his immediate resignation on Tuesday, March
19. Kazakhstan is of enormous geostrategic and economic significance. It is
the largest country in Central Asia and generates well over half of the
region’s GDP.

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who had been chairman of the Kazakhstan Senate, the
upper house of parliament, was sworn in as president of Kazakhstan on March
20. He is to remain in office until new elections are held next year.

Nazarbayev was for decades a high-ranking functionary of the Stalinist
bureaucracy and played a central role in the restoration of capitalism in
Kazakhstan, which threw millions into poverty and impelled millions more to
emigrate. Among the positions he held were president of the Kazakh Soviet
Socialist Republic (1990–1991), secretary of the Communist Party of
Kazakhstan (1979–1984), deputy of the Soviet of the Union of the USSR
(1979–1989) and first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist
Party of Kazakhstan (1989–1991).

Nazarbayev’s authoritarian regime has been characterized by extreme social
inequality, nepotism, corruption and the violent suppression of political
and social opposition, involving a rigorous regime of political censorship,
as well as a language policy discriminating against non-Kazakh people who
previously comprised the majority of the country's population. The Kazakh
economy has grown significantly, especially since 2000, largely based on
the extraction of the country’s vast precious mineral and oil resources.
When oil workers in Zhanaozen went on a militant strike in late 2011,
Nazarbayev oversaw a police massacre of the striking workers, with 11
killed and many more wounded.

In his March 19 announcement, Nazarbayev made clear that he plans to remain
a key player in Kazakhstan’s politics. Nazarbayev will remain the most
powerful person in the country for the rest of his life and oversee the
process of a reshuffling of power relationships among Kazakhstan’s elites.

A 2010 law established Nazarbayev’s special status as Yelbasy, “Leader of
the Nation” and bestowed upon him the title Halyq Qaharmany, “Hero of the
People.” Nazarbayev enjoys lifetime immunity from criminal prosecution. The
secrecy and inviolability of his own assets and wealth, as well as those of
the family members living with him, are guaranteed.

Nazarbayev retains his special status as Yelbasy, and will remain chairman
of the Security Council, chairman of the Nur-Otan Party, and a member of
the Constitutional Council. He will also remain chairman of the Assembly of
the People of Kazakhstan and chairman of the Managing Council of the Samruk
Kazyna sovereign wealth fund. The latter company, owned by the state, is
the sole or majority shareholder of the national railroad company, the
KazMunayGas oil company, the airline Air Astana, and a long list of other
key industrial enterprises.

Nazarbayev will thus have veto power over any and all decisions of
government, including the power unilaterally to issue decrees with the
effect of law, and has special powers that will effectively allow him to
make key national economic policy decisions directly, without approval from
the government.

In his inaugural address on March 20, Tokayev, the new president, proposed
that the Kazakhstan capital city of Astana be renamed as Nur-Sultan in
honor of Nazarbayev. The proposal was quickly adopted by the parliament as
well as the city council. The central street in Almaty (Alma-Ata),
Kazakhstan’s largest city, had already been renamed in Nazarbayev’s honor
in 2017. When protests against the decision occurred several days later,
the police arrested numerous demonstrators.

Also on March 20, the Senate elected Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter, Dariga
Nazarbayeva, to take over Tokayev’s position as chairperson. Nazarbayeva,
born in 1963, has had parallel careers in both politics and business and
had an estimated wealth of $595 million as of 2013. Political commentators
have suggested her as the most likely successor to take the presidency
after the 2020 election.

Nazarbayev did not name a specific reason for his sudden and somewhat
unexpected resignation. His health condition is mostly a matter of secrecy,
but it is known that he underwent prostate surgery in Germany in 2011. His
government has been rocked by crisis recently, with Nazarbayev dismissing
all members of his administration on February 21.

Definite political and social conditions point to the broader concerns that
underlie the political crisis in Astana and the decision of Nazarbayev to
initiate the process of “transitioning” to another president.

First, the country’s ruling class, recruited to a high degree from the
former Stalinist bureaucracy, is highly sensitive to the international
resurgence of working-class struggles throughout the globe, including in
Central Asia and the former Soviet Union. Kazakhstan, in particular, has
seen a series of strikes and protests over the past few years and in recent
months.

Social anger also recently erupted after a fire in Astana (now Nur-Sultan)
on February 4 killed five children while their parents were at work. The
family had been living in a temporary building heated by an electric heater
and a stove. While official public mourning events were held in multiple
cities, protests occurred in Astana involving public statements by women
with multiple children.

Urzada Uaisova, an Astana resident and mother of six children, was quoted
by news agency Interfax.by as saying, “I have been standing in line [for
housing] since 2007. Twelve years have passed, and they haven’t given us
anything yet. They have made some promises, but we just keep getting
fooled. Each month, I pay 50,000 tenge (about US$130) for my housing, and
there are costs for coal to heat the home. Why doesn’t the state give
subsidies for the mothers of multiple children? If they would just let us
rent an apartment for 50,000 tenge, we would be happy to pay that if we
could later take ownership of the apartment.”

Videos of the statements of Uaisova and other women have been viewed on
YouTube hundreds of thousands of times—very significant numbers for a
country of just 18 million people and far exceeding the number of views of
all the videos containing Nazarbayev’s own statement on the event. Later in
February, protests took place in several cities demanding the creation of
jobs, support for mothers with multiple children, and the resignation of
Nazarbayev.

Second, Kazakhstan is engulfed in the crisis generated by the escalating
war preparations of US imperialism against Russia and China. The country
maintains significant and growing economic ties with China and has
long-standing relations with Moscow. China buys about 25 percent of
Kazakhstan’s oil output and Kazakhstan is the important country for the
land route of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), which is seen by US
imperialism as a major geostrategic challenge.

The Carnegie Endowment for Peace and Democracy, an important think tank of
US imperialism, noted with concern in May 2018 that “[a]s part of its Belt
and Road Initiative, Beijing is rapidly investing in east-west
infrastructure projects across the Central Asian republic that have
overshadowed previously launched programs backed by the US and Russia. ...
>From Beijing's point of view, Kazakhstan, where the BRI was first announced
by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, is a critical element of its
fast-growing drive for international influence. It sits in a strategic spot
between China and Russia and is far away from potential competing powers
including the US and the EU.” The article noted that the only way for
Astana to counteract Chinese influence was to seek closer cooperation with
Russia, but above all the EU.

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 Harold F. Schiffman

Professor Emeritus of
 Dravidian Linguistics and Culture
Dept. of South Asia Studies
University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6305

Phone:  (215) 898-7475
Fax:  (215) 573-2138

Email:  haroldfs at gmail.com
http://ccat.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/

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