[Lingtyp] Reporting cross-linguistic frequencies
Stela MANOVA
manova.stela at gmail.com
Tue Nov 25 12:55:18 UTC 2025
I hit the wrong ‘RE’ button and sent this to Martin Haspelmath as a private message. Sorry!
> ---
> Dr. Stela MANOVA
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> On 25.11.2025, at 10:03, Stela MANOVA <manova.stela at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Martin Haspelmath via Lingtyp <lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org> wrote:
>>
>> Getting back to the issue of "cross-linguistic frequencies":
>>
>> Even though I don't engage in high-level statistics myself, I don't see how we could distinguish between (i) chance, (ii) inheritance, (iii) contact influence and (iv) the universal/non-historical residue if we didn't use statistics.
>>
>>
>
> I am not a statistician either, though as far as I know (based on education), nobody in linguistics is. So let me give the mathematical perspective.
>
> To establish the universal, we first need to exclude the peculiar. Suppose A, B, C, D, etc. are languages. We compare A and B, exclude what is unusual in either of them, and what remains is what A and B share (universal). Then we add language C, compare it with the universal we have from A and B, and again exclude the unusual. And so on, for all languages. This way, we do not need statistics to identify what is shared across languages, i.e. the universal. And for me, we do not need to explain the origin of the unusual.
>
> In sum, what we need is a change of perspective. So far, when looking for universals, linguists have been primarily interested in the unusual — and whenever an unusual pattern was found, this counted as a discovery. But if the goal is to find universals, then we should start from the particular in order to find and exclude it. I explained this mechanism with the mastering of the system of English plural nouns in a previous message. And yes, I know this goes against Greville Corbett’s definition of “default” (universal) and its role in a system, but Grev is neither a statistician nor a mathematician.
>
> Best,
>
> Stela
>
> ---
> Dr. Stela MANOVA
> Chief Executive Officer (CEO), MANOVA AI
> Principal Investigator (PI), Gauss:AI Global
> Registration number 655453b
> Sterngasse 3/2/6, 1010 Vienna, Austria
> Email: manova at manova-ai.com <mailto:manova at manova-ai.com>
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> manova.stela at gmail.com <mailto:manova.stela at gmail.com>
> Web: https://www.stelamanova.com <https://www.stelamanova.com/>
> https://www.manova-ai.com <https://www.manova-ai.com/>
> https://gaussaiglobal.com <https://gaussaiglobal.com/>
>
> Call for Participation and 5-Minute Talks <https://drive.google.com/file/d/12Rjd57lGhk1m1VuB-_RCMTcpCGEhO3ZO/view?usp=sharing> in the first block of workshops (March 23-24, 2026) of the WS Series Linguistics Meets ChatGPT: From Prompt to Theory <https://gaussaiglobal.com/LingTransformer/>
>
>
>> On 25.11.2025, at 07:17, Martin Haspelmath via Lingtyp <lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org> wrote:
>>
>> Getting back to the issue of "cross-linguistic frequencies":
>>
>> Even though I don't engage in high-level statistics myself, I don't see how we could distinguish between (i) chance, (ii) inheritance, (iii) contact influence and (iv) the universal/non-historical residue if we didn't use statistics.
>>
>> Peter said:
>>
>> On 24.11.25 14:55, Peter Arkadiev wrote:
>>> when I wrote "the whole enterprise does not appear to be very productive" I rather meant the enterprise of trying to discover universal factors by means of a statistical analysis of language samples.
>> Maybe we can say that there have been no statistics breakthroughs over the last two decades, but "the whole enterprise" began in 1975 with Sherman's paper on language sampling, and it seems to me that since then, awareness of the problems in identifying universals quantitatively has gradually increased, and has been crucial in our understanding of the relationship between universal, areal and genealogical factors. Maybe what Peter meant was that the solution will not come from "statistics", but from better sampling, and I sympathize with this:
>>
>>> I fully appreciate the efforts aimed at improving methods of both constructing samples and analysing them, since these methods allow us to test other types of hypotheses and generalisations.
>> In any event, the issue of "primary" vs. "secondary" data (discussed by Bill Croft and Jürgen Bohnemeyer) is orthogonal to this, though truly worldwide data from a substantial number of languages is hardly available outside of secondary sources. If we want more fine-grained data (as in my 1997 book on "Indefinite pronouns", where I had to collect some "primary data"), we usually have to limit ourselves to fairly few languages (my sample of 40 languages was small and very skewed). Thus, there is a trade-off that will not go away – but all the approaches that were mentioned have been "productive", I feel.
>>
>> Martin
>>
>> Sherman, D. (1975). Stop and fricative systems: A discussion of paradigmatic gaps and the question of language sampling. In Working Papers on Language Universals 17, 1–31. Stanford University.
>>
>>
>>
>>>
>>> ----------------
>>> Кому: Martin Haspelmath (martin_haspelmath at eva.mpg.de <mailto:martin_haspelmath at eva.mpg.de>), Peter Arkadiev (peterarkadiev at yandex.ru <mailto:peterarkadiev at yandex.ru>);
>>> Копия: Linguistic Typology (lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org>);
>>> Тема: [Lingtyp] Reporting cross-linguistic frequencies;
>>> 24.11.2025, 15:22, "Sylvain Kahane" <sylvain at kahane.fr> <mailto:sylvain at kahane.fr>:
>>> Dear Peter and Martin,
>>>
>>> Just a quick note about primary and secondary data. By typology based on primary data, I assume you are referring to typology based on tokens (or what we called typometrics in one of our articles). Basing our assertion on corpora has some advantages: we can have quantitative statements using the frequency of our observations, and our results can also be more easily verified and possibly refuted if the data we are working with is freely available (such as the UD collection of syntactic databases). But I wouldn't say that we are working on primary data, because this data must be transcribed and annotated in order to be used. Even if you use an LLM on raw data, your LLM has been trained on secondary data. If you examine tags such as nsubj or ADJ in a UD database, you need to be very careful, because even if the annotators followed the universal annotation scheme, there are different possible interpretations of these concepts, especially in ergative or functionally inconsistent languages, or in languages whose lexeme categorization differs from that of Indo-European languages.
>>>
>>> Best
>>>
>>> Sylvain
>>>
>>> Le 24 nov. 2025 à 08:56, Martin Haspelmath via Lingtyp <lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org>> a écrit :
>>>
>>> I agree with Peter that the corpus-based methods employed by Hawkins, Wälchli, Cysouw, Levshina and others have been very important, and also with Jürgen that "when confronting the causal inference problem in typology, we must consider every source of evidence that we can get our hands on."
>>>
>>> But I don't agree with Peter that "the whole enterprise [of overcoming genealogical and areal biases] does not appear to be very productive", and I don't agree with Jürgen that we "must eventually move from secondary data typology to primary data typology".
>>>
>>> I think that the enterprise of controlling for family and contact effects is absolutely necessary, because otherwise we cannot distinguish outcomes of universal/non-historical factors from outcomes of historical events. Peter recognizes this implicitly when he says that we should "combine experimental research ... with a quantitative study of variation in corpora across a small number of sufficiently distinct languages". That's precisely the point: Which languages are "sufficiently distinct"? And hasn't the search for empirical universals been *highly productive* over the last few decades? The recent paper by Verkerk et al. (2025) has found good evidence for most of the empirical universals that had been seriously discussed earlier, so the Greenbergian universals seem to very robust findings compared to many other prestigious claims in linguistics.
>>>
>>> And I think that there is no reason to abandon secondary-data typology just because we can also (increasingly) do primary-data typology. Typological comparison can be done at multiple scales and multiple levels of granularity, and it is not clear that we can dispense with any of these levels. For example, we want to do typology of phonological segments (along the lines of the Phoible.org database), or typology of word meanings (lexification typology, cf. https://clics.clld.org/), and for these, it seems that secondary data will not be easily replaced.
>>>
>>> Best,
>>>
>>> Martin
>>>
>>>
>>> On 21.11.25 16:04, Juergen Bohnemeyer wrote:
>>> Dear Peter — I’m a massive fan of corpus-based typology. More broadly, there is no question in my mind that we should, and must, eventually move from secondary data typology to primary data typology. Nobody seems to deny that secondary data typology is fraught with too many problematic idealizations: in particular, it reduces entire languages to single observations, and it suffers from incomparable decisions on what is treated as a language in different parts of the world.
>>>
>>> (The second problem is closely related to, but not entirely identical with, the countability problem Ian Joo mentions. The fact that language is a count noun is a powerful illustration of how ordinary language can frame reality in ways that may impede scientific progress if it goes unchecked, as Whorf pointed out. However, actually counting languages is not the issue for regression-based modeling, since regression models don’t operate on counts. But the question whether what is treated as an observation (i.e., a language) is uniform across the sample is of course very much a concern for the validity of sampling-based and regression-based modeling alike.)
>>>
>>> There is a broader answer to your question, though: as a matter of course, when confronting the causal inference problem in typology (i.e., when hunting for the causal forces that shape languages), we must consider every source of evidence that we can get our hands on. Aside from corpus-based typology, this includes field-based psycholinguistics and the toolkit of evolutionary linguistics, including simulations and miniature artificial language experiments.
>>>
>>> Let me also suggest a distinction between methods that are primarily geared toward the discovery of typological distributions and the examination of their statistical properties and methods than can be used to test hypotheses of causal inference (i.e., explanatory hypotheses). Experimental research such as what I just mentioned has its uses primarily for testing explanatory hypotheses. Corpus-based research can have both functions. But if we want to use corpora to discover typological distributions, we’ll need very large parallax corpus databases. As are being developed now.
>>>
>>> Best — Juergen
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Juergen Bohnemeyer (He/Him)
>>> Professor, Department of Linguistics
>>> University at Buffalo
>>>
>>> Office: 642 Baldy Hall, UB North Campus
>>> Mailing address: 609 Baldy Hall, Buffalo, NY 14260
>>> Phone: (716) 645 0127
>>> Fax: (716) 645 3825
>>> Email: jb77 at buffalo.edu <mailto:jb77 at buffalo.edu>
>>> Web: http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~jb77/
>>>
>>> Office hours Tu/Th 3:30-4:30pm in 642 Baldy or via Zoom (Meeting ID 585 520 2411; Passcode Hoorheh)
>>>
>>> There’s A Crack In Everything - That’s How The Light Gets In
>>> (Leonard Cohen)
>>> --
>>>
>>> From: Lingtyp <lingtyp-bounces at listserv.linguistlist.org> <mailto:lingtyp-bounces at listserv.linguistlist.org> on behalf of Peter Arkadiev via Lingtyp <lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org> <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org>
>>> Date: Friday, November 21, 2025 at 05:59
>>> To: Martin Haspelmath <martin_haspelmath at eva.mpg.de> <mailto:martin_haspelmath at eva.mpg.de>, Linguistic Typology <lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org> <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org>
>>> Subject: Re: [Lingtyp] Reporting cross-linguistic frequencies
>>>
>>> Dear Martin, dear all,
>>>
>>> I am starting to wonder whether statistical analysis of a language sample is at all a suitable method for "detecting universal tendencies that are caused by universal/non-historical factors" (Martin's formulation). Given that there is no consensus as for how to overcome genealogical and areal biases and even whether those biases must be overcome at all and what trying to overcome them actually gets us (apart from getting some of us high-profile publications with ever more complicated mathematical apparatus which others among us struggle to understand and cannot evaluate; not being in any way a "mathematically-gifted person", to borrow Stela's expression, I belong to the latter group), the whole enterprise does not appear to be very productive. What if the more appropriate method, at least if purported functional factors are being concerned, is the one employed by John Hawkins, Natalia Levshina and some others, i.e. to combine experimental research on production / processing with a quantitative study of variation in corpora across a small number of sufficiently distinct languages? If we can show that certain well-defined factors are operative in language processing and result in skewed distributions in corpora ultimately translatable into tendencies of diachronic change, and moreover are able to corroborate these results by similarly skewed distributions of variables in reasonably designed cross-linguistic samples, then what else do we need? In any case, as has been repeatedly stated many times, even if we find that in a certain language sample, however well-designed, a certain variable shows a clearly skewed distribution of, say 80% vs 20%, nothing follows from this in terms of "universal preferences" unless we are able to independently show that the more frequent value is in some or other way "preferred" in processing / production etc. I am sorry if the above is self-evident or naive.
>>>
>>> Best regards,
>>>
>>> Peter
>>>
>>>
>>> ----------------
>>> Кому: lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org> (lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org>);
>>> Тема: [Lingtyp] Reporting cross-linguistic frequencies;
>>> 21.11.2025, 10:19, "Martin Haspelmath via Lingtyp" <lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org> <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org>:
>>> Thanks, Jürgen! I like the "wave vs. particle" analogy, because these concrete expressions help us make sense of what seems to be going on (given the experimental results).
>>>
>>> In worldwide comparative linguistics, we also want to make sense of what is going on, but it seems to me that we need analogies not only for interpreting results, but also for understanding what we are aiming for. For me, "removing areal and genealogical/phylogenetic bias" has the aim of detecting universal tendencies that are caused by universal/non-historical factors.
>>>
>>> I would think that on the imagined concrete scenario of a sample of isolated isolates (e.g. 100 languages that have long existed on isolated islands, maybe of the Rapanui type), looking at these 100 isolates should give the same results as looking at 100 sample languages from larger families that have been shaped also by contact.
>>>
>>> Are there reasons to doubt this? If not, then we can take the "isolated isolates" scenario simply as a way of illustrating our goals in concrete terms (somewhat like "wave" and "particle" serve as concrete illustrations).
>>>
>>> But maybe the imagined scenario (which is not an "assumption"!!) is somehow problematic, because the goals of our enterprise are DIFFERENT. In Bickel's (2007) paper (LiTy 11), which has been widely cited, the idea seems to be that looking for "history-free" tendencies is somehow an obsolete goal.
>>>
>>> Some people have suggested that in identifying universal trends, one MUST take into account genealogies, and isolates are problematic because they are not part of any genealogy. This is because we should not look primarily at languages, but at *transitions* (changes from one type to another). If I understood Verkerk et al. (2025) correctly, they solved the "isolates problem" by using an artificial world tree (where all languages are somehow included; the very beautiful tree is used in the press release <https://www.mpg.de/25723124/1114-evan-enduring-patterns-in-the-world-s-languages-150495-x>). Are Verkerk et al. pursuing a different goal? That is not really clear to me.
>>>
>>> I find the notion of an artificial world tree profoundly strange, much stranger than the hypothetical scenario of 100 isolates on remote islands. But maybe it is needed, because the goal of the enterprise is somehow different (along Bickel's lines)? So I like the imagined "isolated isolates" scenario also because it clarifies what I'm interested in.
>>>
>>> (And isn't Trudgill's idea that isolates are somehow "exotic" very speculative? Shcherbakova et al. 2023 have not provided strong evidence against the idea, but they simply did not find evidence in favour of it.)
>>>
>>> One last point: Yes, all isolates are survivors from some larger family, but why is that relevant? Languages may have existed for half a million years or longer, and we know almost nothing about that deep past. Most of the currently existing families probably had more branches in earlier times, and the protolanguages we reconstruct may or may not have been isolates themselves. We cannot tell, but I don't see why we would need to know.
>>>
>>> Best,
>>>
>>> Martin
>>>
>>>
>>> On 21.11.25 07:07, Juergen Bohnemeyer via Lingtyp wrote:
>>> Dear all — Here’s a quick explanation of why the assumption of an “isolated isolate” is profoundly strange:
>>>
>>> Leaving aside sign languages, constructed languages, and artificial languages, nobody seems to entertain the possibility that languages have emerged spontaneously out of something that we wouldn’t consider a language itself over the last few thousands of years. In other words, the languages we consider isolates are without exception lone survivors; but they did descend from ancestors which are often lost and unknown, and these ancestors biased the offshoot's properties by dint of inheritance/transmission.
>>>
>>> The reason isolates are interesting from a sampling perspective is that they may represent entire genera or families without forcing us to pick a member. But being an isolate does not mean being free of phylogenetic bias. On the contrary: isolates of unknown descend are actually particularly problematic in the sense that they are shaped by biases that we have no way of identifying directly since the biasing ancestors have been lost to time.
>>>
>>> As to contact. Languages that are not in contact with other languages over long stretches of time are extremely rare and unusual. In fact, as I’m sure everyone here is aware, such languages have been plausibly argued to tend to evolve exotic properties as a result of their isolation (Lupyan & Dale 2010; Trudgill 2011), although this is controversial (Shcherbakova et al. 2023). In any case, I would certainly not want to make such languages the basis for causal inference in typology.
>>>
>>> But it gets a lot worse. The “isolated isolate” interpretation doesn’t just require us to think of a language that isn’t currently in contact with any other language. We would have to assume a language that has never come into contact with any other language at any point in its history (at least not long/intensively enough to change as a result of it). I’m seriously uncertain whether such a language has ever existed on this planet.
>>>
>>> Here’s an analogy from quantum mechanics: Schrödinger’s and Heisenberg’s equations are mathematical models that describe the experimentally observed behavior of elementary particles under various conditions. The particle and the wave interpretation are interpretations that we use to make sense of these mathematical models. We find these models useful because most of us don’t think in mathematical equations (not even theoretical physicists, it would seem). But if we push these interpretations beyond a certain point, they break down. To begin with, we can’t think of something simultaneously as a wave and as a particle.
>>>
>>> In the same way, we can mathematically describe the influence phylogeny and areality exert on the probability of a particular language having certain properties. The “isolated isolate” interpretation is just that - an interpretation of the statistical models; but, as I tried to show above, it runs into absurdities rather more quickly than the particle and wave interpretations in quantum mechanics.
>>>
>>> Best — Juergen
>>>
>>> G. Lupyan, R. Dale, Language structure is partly determined by social structure. PLOS ONE5, e8559 (2010).
>>>
>>> O. Shcherbakova, S. M. Michaelis, H. J. Haynie, et al. Societies of strangers do not speak less complex languages. Scientific Advances 9, eadf7704 (2023).
>>>
>>> P. Trudgill, Sociolinguistic Typology: Social Determinants of Linguistic Complexity (OxfordUniv. Press, 2011).
>>>
>>> Juergen Bohnemeyer (He/Him)
>>> Professor, Department of Linguistics
>>> University at Buffalo
>>>
>>> Office: 642 Baldy Hall, UB North Campus
>>> Mailing address: 609 Baldy Hall, Buffalo, NY 14260
>>> Phone: (716) 645 0127
>>> Fax: (716) 645 3825
>>> Email: jb77 at buffalo.edu <mailto:jb77 at buffalo.edu>
>>> Web: http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~jb77/
>>>
>>> Office hours Tu/Th 3:30-4:30pm in 642 Baldy or via Zoom (Meeting ID 585 520 2411; Passcode Hoorheh)
>>>
>>> There’s A Crack In Everything - That’s How The Light Gets In
>>> (Leonard Cohen)
>>> --
>>>
>>> From: Lingtyp <lingtyp-bounces at listserv.linguistlist.org> <mailto:lingtyp-bounces at listserv.linguistlist.org> on behalf of Matías Guzmán Naranjo via Lingtyp <lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org> <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org>
>>> Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025 at 04:01
>>> To: lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org> <lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org> <mailto:lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org>
>>> Subject: Re: [Lingtyp] Reporting cross-linguistic frequencies
>>>
>>> I'll jump in with some thoughts.
>>>
>>>
>>> - Dryer's method and ours aim at doing basically the same thing:
>>> quantifying what's "left" after removing genetic and areal bias.
>>>
>>> - Whether you should call them proportions or adjusted frequencies...
>>> I'm not sure that it matters that much? As long as you understand how
>>> they were calculated...
>>>
>>> - How you want to interpret this "what's left" is debatable, I guess,
>>> but I don't think I agree with Jürgen. As far as I can tell it should be
>>> compatible with something along the lines of an "isolated isolate" as
>>> described by Martin. You can also see them as 'universal' preferences
>>> (more or less the same thing?).
>>>
>>> - "the probability of a random language having a certain property
>>> depends on (or is influenced by, or varies with, etc.) it being related
>>> to certain other languages, or being spoken (or signed) in a particular
>>> area" -> In our approach we assumes that the probability of a language L
>>> having some feature value F depends on three things: 1) its relatedness
>>> to other languages, 2) its contact to other languages, 3) some universal
>>> preference for F. Kind of the point of what we do is that we try to
>>> estimate each of these factors. [We can add more factors and more
>>> structure, but that's the most basic model]
>>>
>>> - You can quantify the contribution of the phylogenetic component and
>>> the areal component(s) with our techniques, but this is a bit tricky
>>> because there is unavoidable overlap in the information each one
>>> contains. These measures also have a different meaning than the adjusted
>>> frequency and can't be used as a replacement for them, you can use them
>>> in addition to.
>>>
>>>
>>> Matías
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> El 20/11/25 a las 9:36, Omri Amiraz via Lingtyp escribió:
>>> > Dear all,
>>> > I agree with Ian that, in addition to genealogical and areal biases,
>>> > the very question of what counts as a language versus a dialect is
>>> > partly subjective. This makes actual frequencies even more
>>> > problematic, since we would obtain different results depending on
>>> > whether we treat Wu Chinese as one language or as thirty separate
>>> > languages, as Ian pointed out.
>>> > Juergen wrote: "We can empirically assess the extent to which the
>>> > probability of a random language having a certain property depends on
>>> > (or is influenced by, or varies with, etc.) it being related to
>>> > certain other languages, or being spoken (or signed) in a particular
>>> > area."
>>> >
>>> > I wonder whether it might be useful to have a measure of the
>>> > genealogical and areal spread of a feature, essentially quantifying
>>> > how broadly it is distributed across families and regions in the
>>> > present-day world. Such a measure might be more straightforward to
>>> > interpret than an adjusted frequency/probability, since it is not
>>> > clear whether the described population is a hypothetical set of
>>> > isolated isolates or something else.
>>> >
>>> > Is anyone aware of an existing metric that captures genealogical or
>>> > areal spread in this way?
>>> >
>>> > Best,
>>> > Omri
>>> >
>>> > _______________________________________________
>>> > Lingtyp mailing list
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>>> --
>>> Martin Haspelmath
>>> Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology
>>> Deutscher Platz 6
>>> D-04103 Leipzig
>>> https://www.eva.mpg.de/linguistic-and-cultural-evolution/staff/martin-haspelmath/
>>> ,
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>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Peter Arkadiev, PhD Habil.
>>> https://peterarkadiev.github.io/
>>>
>>> --
>>> Martin Haspelmath
>>> Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology
>>> Deutscher Platz 6
>>> D-04103 Leipzig
>>> https://www.eva.mpg.de/linguistic-and-cultural-evolution/staff/martin-haspelmath/
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Lingtyp mailing list
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>>> https://listserv.linguistlist.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/lingtyp
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Peter Arkadiev, PhD Habil.
>>> https://peterarkadiev.github.io/
>>>
>> --
>> Martin Haspelmath
>> Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology
>> Deutscher Platz 6
>> D-04103 Leipzig
>> https://www.eva.mpg.de/linguistic-and-cultural-evolution/staff/martin-haspelmath/
>> _______________________________________________
>> Lingtyp mailing list
>> Lingtyp at listserv.linguistlist.org
>> https://listserv.linguistlist.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/lingtyp
>
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