OT: Obama and his principled stand on gay marriage

[Victor Steinbok]

There have been several stories since the announcement that went up over
the weekend and this morning. NYT front page reflects the buzz that
Obama called eight pastors after the speech. But NYT is also ignoring
the fact that most polls conducted over the weekend show no specific
correspondence to the speech--that is, differences between the polls are
far more influenced by polling house bias than by any actual changes in
electorate.

The same is true about the WaPo story last week that minority
registration is down across the country, ostensibly, they say, because
of the economy (induced migration and all that). The claim has been
debunked by several sources that suggest that the dataset used by WaPo
is known not to correspond to actual voter turnout--that is, the changes
in registration numbers do not correlate to actual votes.

Aside from all this, the fact that except for a few rabid
fundamentalists, the attacks from the right have largely accused Obama
of playing politics with his announcement rather than criticizing
decision of support in itself. This suggests that internal polls
demonstrate that this is not a workable wedge issue, unless they create
some other baggage out of it.

Most US demographics have been fairly stable either in long-term voting
patterns or in long-term trends in voting patterns. That is, the
percentages of certain populations either have not changed in decades,
in terms of their votes, or they've been steadily leaning in one
direction or another. For example, Appalachian whites have been
increasingly Republican, but only in their Presidential votes. The only
two demographics that have changed widely are subsets of Latinos (Cubans
are still largely Republican, but slowly trending toward the middle, but
the other groups have swung up and down rather wildly) and Arab
Americans, who used to vote almost entirely Republican, but rapidly
switched sides.

This should end up being a non-issue in national politics. NYT would be
correct if they claimed that NC recent vote and Prop 8 largely passed
because of African-American support. But I am not aware of any reported
case of a high-profile politician getting or losing /any/ crossover vote
because of the issue. They are just looking for an angle to keep
themselves relevant. Don't just stand there, write /something/.

VS-)



On 5/14/2012 11:54 AM, Wilson Gray wrote:
> > From the NYT:
>
> "… Mr. Obama’s friends ... warned that he _risked alienating
> followers, PARTICULARLY AFRICAN_AMERICANS_, who have been more
> skeptical of the idea than other Democratic constituencies."
>
> http://goo.gl/1lx0M
>
> As Ray Charles once asked,
>
> "What did I say?"
>
> Dave Chappelle's skit featuring the quiz-show,
>
> "I Know Black People"
>
> is also relevant. And 1619-1965 is longer than 1965-2012.
>
> --
> -Wilson

------------------------------------------------------------
The American Dialect Society - http://www.americandialect.org