"Invisible Primary" (1976)

Mon Jul 18 05:51:16 UTC 2005

INVISIBLE PRIMARY--5,880 Google hits, 57 Google Groups hits
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"Invisible primary" is mentioned in today's New York Times. Grant Barrett's  
HATCHET JOBS AND HARDBALL (2004) traces it to 1988. The entry is "invisible  
primaries," but no citation is given for "invisible primary."
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Isn't this clearly from Arthur T. Hadley's 1976 book, THE INVISIBLE  PRIMARY? 
William Mayer is also given credit for "invisible primary," but his use  came 
later.
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_http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/18/nyregion/metrocampaigns/18campaign.html_ 
(http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/18/nyregion/metrocampaigns/18campaign.html) 
Both Mr. Miller and Mr. Weiner had been expected to easily gather the  
minimum 7,500 signatures required to make the ballot, but total petition results  - 
like early fund-raising success and endorsements - are one measure of the  
"invisible primary" (so called because it discounts things like poll numbers and  
is invisible to actual voters, if not reporters and pundits). 
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_DC Dispatch | 2002.12.24 | Schneider_ 
(http://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start=12&q=http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/nj/schneider2002-12-24.htm&e=912) 
from National Journal Let the 'Invisible Primary' Begin  ... Mayer coined the
term "the invisible primary"—the  period from the midterm election to the 
Iowa ...
www.theatlantic.com/politics/nj/schneider2002-12-24.htm - _Similar pages_ 
(http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&q=related:www.theatlantic.com/pol
itics/nj/schneider2002-12-24.htm)  \
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_Why Gore dropped out_ 
(http://groups-beta.google.com/group/alt.politics.bush/browse_thread/thread/de87cad4457a9c9e/2eb481ee7f1a9984?q="invisible+primary"&r
num=1&hl=en#2eb481ee7f1a9984)  
... But in the  end, it pretty much takes you back to where you started.'' 
Mayer coined
the  term, "the invisible primary'' -- the period from the midterm  election 
...   
_alt.politics.bush_ 
(http://groups-beta.google.com/group/alt.politics.bush?hl=en)  -  Dec 19 2002, 12:17 pm by  JoseSoplar - 18 messages - 9 authors 
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Prof. William Mayer, a political scientist at Northeastern University, has  
studied every contested nomination in both parties since 1980. Here's what  
he 
finds: "In seven of the ten cases . . . the nominee-to-be had opened up a  
sizeable lead over every other eventual candidate by, at the latest, one  
month 
after the preceding midterm election -- more than a year, in other  words, 
before the start of the actual delegate selection activities.'' Which  means, 
at 
this very point in the nominating cycle. 
After the 1978 midterm, Ronald Reagan was the frontrunner for the 1980 GOP  
nomination. After the 1982 midterm, Walter Mondale led the field for 1984  
Just 
after the 1994 midterm, Bob Dole was the Republican favorite for 1996.  And 
right after the 1998 midterm, Al Gore led the Democratic field for 2000.  
Same thing for George Bush the Elder going into the 1988 and 1992 Republican  
contests. And for George Bush the Younger going into 2000. In every case,  
whoever led the polls after the midterm ended up winning the nomination.  
There were a few exceptions. But each of them was, well, exceptional. After  
the 
1978 midterm, Sen. Edward Kennedy -- not President Jimmy Carter -- was  the 
frontrunner for the 1980 Democratic nomination. But just before the  first 
primaries, the hostage crisis in Iran put President Carter back in the  lead. 
After the 1986 midterm, Gary Hart led the Democratic field for 1988  Hart 
proceeded to self-destruct. After the 1990 midterm, Mario Cuomo was the  
Democratic frontrunner, followed by Jesse Jackson. But neither of them ran  
in 
1992. 
It's not unusual for a candidate to come out of nowhere and pull off a  
surprise 
primary victory -- like Gary Hart in 1984, and Pat Buchanan in  1996, and 
John 
McCain in 2000. Didn't they gain what George Bush called "the  Big Mo'' after 
he 
beat Ronald Reagan in Iowa in 1980? Yes, each of those  candidates got 
momentum. 
But none of them got the nomination. As Mayer said  in an interview, "I 
characterize momentum as a bit like a roller coaster  ride. It provides a lot 
of 
excitement. But in the end, it pretty much takes  you back to where you 
started.'' 
Mayer coined the term, "the invisible primary'' -- the  period from the 
midterm 
election to the Iowa caucuses, when candidates  struggle for money and 
attention 
before a single vote is cast. Does the invisible primary matter?  You bet it 
does. Because nine out of ten times, whoever wins the invisible primary 
becomes  
the nominee. 
Winning the invisible  primary means two things: raising the most money, and 
becoming the  frontrunner in the polls. Here are Mayer's findings: 
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_NDOL: The Primary Journey by Kenneth S. Baer_ 
(http://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start=2&q=http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?contentid=252291&kaid=127&subid=171
&e=912) 
... Arthur T. Hadley's 1976 The Invisible  Primary, a journalistic account of 
the
... real story -- just  as Hadley's Invisible Primary relegated Jimmy Carter  
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www.ndol.org/  ndol_ci.cfm?contentid=252291&kaid=127&subid=171 - 43k - 
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_Willis Monie Books: The Invisible Primary by  Hadley, Arthur T._ 
(http://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start=3&q=http://www.wilmonie.com/cgi-bin/wmb455/47356.htm
l&e=912) 
... Author:  Hadley, Arthur T. Title: The Invisible Primary Description:  
Engl:
Prentice-Hall, 1976. 1st Printing. H. Very Good. Item # 47356 $9.00 Add  to 
your ... 
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