"Invisible Primary" (1976)
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Bapopik at AOL.COM
Mon Jul 18 05:35:29 UTC 2005
INVISIBLE PRIMARY--5,880 Google hits, 57 Google Groups hits
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"Invisible primary" is mentioned in today's New York Times. Grant Barrett's
HATCHET JOBS AND HARDBALL (2004) traces it to 1988. The entry is "invisible
primaries," but no citation is given for "invisible primary."
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Isn't this clearly from Arthur T. Hadley's 1976 book, THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY?
William Mayer is also given credit for "invisible primary," but his use came
later.
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_http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/18/nyregion/metrocampaigns/18campaign.html_
(http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/18/nyregion/metrocampaigns/18campaign.html)
Both Mr. Miller and Mr. Weiner had been expected to easily gather the
minimum 7,500 signatures required to make the ballot, but total petition results -
like early fund-raising success and endorsements - are one measure of the
"invisible primary" (so called because it discounts things like poll numbers and
is invisible to actual voters, if not reporters and pundits).
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_DC Dispatch | 2002.12.24 | Schneider_
(http://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start=12&q=http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/nj/schneider2002-12-24.htm&e=912)
from National Journal Let the 'Invisible Primary' Begin ... Mayer coined the
term "the invisible primary"—the period from the midterm election to the
Iowa ...
www.theatlantic.com/politics/nj/schneider2002-12-24.htm - _Similar pages_
(http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&q=related:www.theatlantic.com/pol
itics/nj/schneider2002-12-24.htm) \
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_Why Gore dropped out_
(http://groups-beta.google.com/group/alt.politics.bush/browse_thread/thread/de87cad4457a9c9e/2eb481ee7f1a9984?q="invisible+primary"&r
num=1&hl=en#2eb481ee7f1a9984)
... But in the end, it pretty much takes you back to where you started.''
Mayer coined
the term, "the invisible primary'' -- the period from the midterm election
...
_alt.politics.bush_
(http://groups-beta.google.com/group/alt.politics.bush?hl=en) - Dec 19 2002, 12:17 pm by JoseSoplar - 18 messages - 9 authors
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Prof. William Mayer, a political scientist at Northeastern University, has
studied every contested nomination in both parties since 1980. Here's what
he
finds: "In seven of the ten cases . . . the nominee-to-be had opened up a
sizeable lead over every other eventual candidate by, at the latest, one
month
after the preceding midterm election -- more than a year, in other words,
before the start of the actual delegate selection activities.'' Which means,
at
this very point in the nominating cycle.
After the 1978 midterm, Ronald Reagan was the frontrunner for the 1980 GOP
nomination. After the 1982 midterm, Walter Mondale led the field for 1984
Just
after the 1994 midterm, Bob Dole was the Republican favorite for 1996. And
right after the 1998 midterm, Al Gore led the Democratic field for 2000.
Same thing for George Bush the Elder going into the 1988 and 1992 Republican
contests. And for George Bush the Younger going into 2000. In every case,
whoever led the polls after the midterm ended up winning the nomination.
There were a few exceptions. But each of them was, well, exceptional. After
the
1978 midterm, Sen. Edward Kennedy -- not President Jimmy Carter -- was the
frontrunner for the 1980 Democratic nomination. But just before the first
primaries, the hostage crisis in Iran put President Carter back in the lead.
After the 1986 midterm, Gary Hart led the Democratic field for 1988 Hart
proceeded to self-destruct. After the 1990 midterm, Mario Cuomo was the
Democratic frontrunner, followed by Jesse Jackson. But neither of them ran
in
1992.
It's not unusual for a candidate to come out of nowhere and pull off a
surprise
primary victory -- like Gary Hart in 1984, and Pat Buchanan in 1996, and
John
McCain in 2000. Didn't they gain what George Bush called "the Big Mo'' after
he
beat Ronald Reagan in Iowa in 1980? Yes, each of those candidates got
momentum.
But none of them got the nomination. As Mayer said in an interview, "I
characterize momentum as a bit like a roller coaster ride. It provides a lot
of
excitement. But in the end, it pretty much takes you back to where you
started.''
Mayer coined the term, "the invisible primary'' -- the period from the
midterm
election to the Iowa caucuses, when candidates struggle for money and
attention
before a single vote is cast. Does the invisible primary matter? You bet it
does. Because nine out of ten times, whoever wins the invisible primary
becomes
the nominee.
Winning the invisible primary means two things: raising the most money, and
becoming the frontrunner in the polls. Here are Mayer's findings:
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_NDOL: The Primary Journey by Kenneth S. Baer_
(http://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start=2&q=http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?contentid=252291&kaid=127&subid=171
&e=912)
... Arthur T. Hadley's 1976 The Invisible Primary, a journalistic account of
the
... real story -- just as Hadley's Invisible Primary relegated Jimmy Carter
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www.ndol.org/ ndol_ci.cfm?contentid=252291&kaid=127&subid=171 - 43k -
_Cached_
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2&ie=UTF-8) - _Similar pages_ (http
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_Willis Monie Books: The Invisible Primary by Hadley, Arthur T._
(http://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start=3&q=http://www.wilmonie.com/cgi-bin/wmb455/47356.htm
l&e=912)
... Author: Hadley, Arthur T. Title: The Invisible Primary Description:
Engl:
Prentice-Hall, 1976. 1st Printing. H. Very Good. Item # 47356 $9.00 Add to
your ...
www.wilmonie.com/cgi-bin/wmb455/47356.html - 9k - Supplemental Result -
_Cached_
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