"Lightning never strikes twice" (1846) (UNCLASSIFIED)

[Mullins, Bill AMRDEC]

Classification:  UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE



> ...
> I've written about this elsewhere. For the past forty years,
> lightning has killed about three people per year in New York
> State. To just equal the deaths on 9-11, you'd have to have
> lightning throughout New York State for the next 800  years.
> (That would assume no other terrorist attack in 800 years.) ...

Why compare only New York's lightning deaths?  Terrorism is a national
problem.

National lightning deaths are more like 100-200 per year.

> The odds of lightning hitting a person twice are almost zero.

"Roy Sullivan held a Guinness World Record after surviving 7 different
lightning strikes across 35 years." [from Wikipedia, with footnotes]

> However, the odds that a major American city will be attacked
> by nuclear terrorism, for example, are surely much greater
> than zero.

True, and we should be devoting scarce anti-terrorism resources to
dealing with that threat, instead of the war on 3 oz of liquids and
shoes that currently goes on at airports.  (The next time someone asks
you to go through a metal detector at an airport or courthouse or
sporting event, remember that 2000 people crossed the border illegally
yesterday.  2000 more will do it today, and 2000 more will do it
tomorrow.)

> The fact that it hasn't happened doesn't mean the
> odds are zero, as Bloomberg tells you. But enough of  that.

Bloomburg didn't say zero.  His point is that the odds of any individual
being the victim of terrorism is small, very small, and that for
individuals to let this risk dominate their thinking (and actions) is
not wise.

If you disagree with that point, argue it.  If you don't like his
analogies (and they could be better), that doesn't invalidate his
overall message (which I believe to be true).
Classification:  UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE

------------------------------------------------------------
The American Dialect Society - http://www.americandialect.org