underwater

[Joel S. Berson]

At 3/7/2012 12:17 PM, Victor Steinbok wrote:
>I can't really decide if I agree with BB, but I know that Joel is wrong.
>Underwater favorability has nothing to do with 50%--it's the result
>where favorables are lower than unfavorables. The candidate could be
>completely unknown and have 10% favorable and 11% unfavorable and that
>would still be underwater.

As I wrote, if Victor would read -- "or, if indifferent pollees are
included, less than his
favorable rating".

Although at 10% favorable with a 5% unfavorable, I would still call
the candidate in deep ... water.

Joel


>     VS-)
>
>On 3/7/2012 11:19 AM, Joel S. Berson wrote:
>>Why do you compare to some base at time X, rather than to a constant
>>50%?
>>
>>
>>   That is, a candidate is underwater if his favorable rating is
>>under 50% (or, if indifferent pollees are included, less than his
>>favorable rating)?
>>I think the use of prior, or base, times is only to show changes
>>overtime, not to assert whether a candidate is or is not under
>>waternow. The term is used only in the headline and the lead
>>sentence of the second paragraph -- "All four Republican contenders
>>remain underwater in overall favorability in the latest ABC
>>News/Washington Post poll, marking the difficulties the survivor
>>may face against Barack
>>Obama."
>>And if some prior base is intended, it will be important whether that is
>>a high tide, a neap tide, or a mean sea level.<br><br>
>>Joel
>>
>>
>>
>>At 3/7/2012 02:46 AM, Benjamin Barrett wrote:
>>
>>This is an interesting
>>development. You take the values at time X as the base and then
>>refer to current values as underwater if they are less than the
>>base. (The poll report is athttp://goo.gl/RnA7V,
>>page 2.)
>>
>>What seems insipid about this is that the base values are at
>>arbitrary points in time. This poll is using base values between
>>January 8 and February 26 for the different candidates.<br><br>
>>A great expression if you're a political (or economic) spinner, I
>>suppose.
>>
>>Benjamin Barrett
>
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