[Ads-l] statistics, "no substitute for judgement"--Henry Clay Sr.?

[ADSGarson O'Toole]

Thanks for your complimentary words MAM.
The QI website now has an entry on this topic, and SG is acknowledged.

Statistics Are No Substitution for Judgment
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/08/04/statistics/

[Begin acknowledgement]
Great thanks to Stephen Goranson whose inquiry led QI to formulate
this question and perform this exploration. Goranson was skeptical of
the attribution to Henry Clay Sr.
[Begin acknowledgement]

Feedback welcome,
Garson

On Fri, Aug 2, 2019 at 1:17 AM Mark Mandel <markamandel at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Sure looks to me like you've nailed it, Garson. Nice work!
>
> MAM
>
>
> On Fri, Aug 2, 2019, 12:01 AM ADSGarson O'Toole <adsgarsonotoole at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > A newspaper in Staffordshire, England reported in October 1930 on a
> > speech by economist Henry Clay during which he employed the quotation.
> >
> > [ref] 1930 October 13, Evening Sentinel (Staffordshire Sentinel),
> > Production Prices and Depression: Professor Clay on the Trade Outlook,
> > Quote Page 5, Column 5, Staffordshire, England. (British Newspaper
> > Archive) [/ref]
> >
> > [Begin excerpt]
> > Professor Henry Clay, the distinguished
> > economist, who is an honorary member of the
> > National Council of the Pottery Industry,
> > addressed the Northern Council Conference on
> > the Incorporated Association of Retail
> > Distributors at Scarborough on Saturday.
> > . . .
> >
> > COMPARING RESULTS.
> > The only way (Professor Clay declared) in
> > which we can measure the results of our own
> > efforts and those due to external influences
> > is by comparing one's results with the results
> > in industry as a whole. Indexes should provide
> > a rough standard of achievement by which
> > individual firms can assess their performances.
> > The difference between a successful and an
> > unsuccessful business man lies often in the
> > greater accuracy of the former's guesses.
> > Statistics are no substitution for judgment.
> > Their use is to check and discipline the
> > judgments on which in the last resort business
> > decisions depend.
> > [End excerpt]
> >
> > The quotation was extracted from the speech and appeared in "The
> > Ottawa Citizen" in November 1930.
> >
> > [ref] 1930 November 13, The Ottawa Citizen, Press Paragraphs, Quote
> > Page 26, Column 3, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada (Newspapers_com) [/ref]
> >
> > [Begin excerpt]
> > STATISTICS NO SUBSTITUTE
> > Statistics are no substitute for judgment.
> > --Henry Clay of the Bank of England.
> > [End excerpt]
> >
> > Garson
> >
> > On Thu, Aug 1, 2019 at 11:06 PM ADSGarson O'Toole
> > <adsgarsonotoole at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > Stephen Goranson wrote:
> > > Subject line: statistics, "no substitute for judgement"--Henry Clay Sr.?
> > > > This is severally claimed online, but appears quite unlikely.
> > >
> > > This may be a case of name confusion. The remarkable book "Hemingway
> > > Didn't Say That" presents several error-mechanisms including the
> > > following: "An ascription can jump from one person to another person
> > > who shares a similar name." I have not performed a deep search, but
> > > the following citation is suggestive.
> > >
> > > Date: December 18, 1930
> > > Newspaper: The Dodge City Journal
> > > Newspaper Location: Dodge City, Kansas
> > > Article: So They Say
> > > Quote Page 3, Column 4
> > > Database: Newspapers.com
> > >
> > > [Begin excerpt]
> > > Statistics are no substitute for judgement. Henry Clay, of the bank of
> > England.
> > > [End excerpt]
> > >
> > > Wikipedia has a germane entry for the economist Henry Clay.
> > > [Begin excerpt]
> > > Henry Clay (economist)
> > > Sir Henry Clay (9 May 1883 – 30 July 1954) was a British economist and
> > > Warden of Nuffield College, Oxford. . . .
> > > Between 1930 and 1944 he worked as an economic adviser to the Bank of
> > England.
> > > [End excerpt]
> > >
> > > Garson
> > >
> > >
> > > > SG
> > > >
> >
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------
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