[Ads-l] statistics, "no substitute for judgement"--Henry Clay Sr.?

[Mark Mandel]

Sure looks to me like you've nailed it, Garson. Nice work!

MAM


On Fri, Aug 2, 2019, 12:01 AM ADSGarson O'Toole <adsgarsonotoole at gmail.com>
wrote:

> A newspaper in Staffordshire, England reported in October 1930 on a
> speech by economist Henry Clay during which he employed the quotation.
>
> [ref] 1930 October 13, Evening Sentinel (Staffordshire Sentinel),
> Production Prices and Depression: Professor Clay on the Trade Outlook,
> Quote Page 5, Column 5, Staffordshire, England. (British Newspaper
> Archive) [/ref]
>
> [Begin excerpt]
> Professor Henry Clay, the distinguished
> economist, who is an honorary member of the
> National Council of the Pottery Industry,
> addressed the Northern Council Conference on
> the Incorporated Association of Retail
> Distributors at Scarborough on Saturday.
> . . .
>
> COMPARING RESULTS.
> The only way (Professor Clay declared) in
> which we can measure the results of our own
> efforts and those due to external influences
> is by comparing one's results with the results
> in industry as a whole. Indexes should provide
> a rough standard of achievement by which
> individual firms can assess their performances.
> The difference between a successful and an
> unsuccessful business man lies often in the
> greater accuracy of the former's guesses.
> Statistics are no substitution for judgment.
> Their use is to check and discipline the
> judgments on which in the last resort business
> decisions depend.
> [End excerpt]
>
> The quotation was extracted from the speech and appeared in "The
> Ottawa Citizen" in November 1930.
>
> [ref] 1930 November 13, The Ottawa Citizen, Press Paragraphs, Quote
> Page 26, Column 3, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada (Newspapers_com) [/ref]
>
> [Begin excerpt]
> STATISTICS NO SUBSTITUTE
> Statistics are no substitute for judgment.
> --Henry Clay of the Bank of England.
> [End excerpt]
>
> Garson
>
> On Thu, Aug 1, 2019 at 11:06 PM ADSGarson O'Toole
> <adsgarsonotoole at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Stephen Goranson wrote:
> > Subject line: statistics, "no substitute for judgement"--Henry Clay Sr.?
> > > This is severally claimed online, but appears quite unlikely.
> >
> > This may be a case of name confusion. The remarkable book "Hemingway
> > Didn't Say That" presents several error-mechanisms including the
> > following: "An ascription can jump from one person to another person
> > who shares a similar name." I have not performed a deep search, but
> > the following citation is suggestive.
> >
> > Date: December 18, 1930
> > Newspaper: The Dodge City Journal
> > Newspaper Location: Dodge City, Kansas
> > Article: So They Say
> > Quote Page 3, Column 4
> > Database: Newspapers.com
> >
> > [Begin excerpt]
> > Statistics are no substitute for judgement. Henry Clay, of the bank of
> England.
> > [End excerpt]
> >
> > Wikipedia has a germane entry for the economist Henry Clay.
> > [Begin excerpt]
> > Henry Clay (economist)
> > Sir Henry Clay (9 May 1883 – 30 July 1954) was a British economist and
> > Warden of Nuffield College, Oxford. . . .
> > Between 1930 and 1944 he worked as an economic adviser to the Bank of
> England.
> > [End excerpt]
> >
> > Garson
> >
> >
> > > SG
> > >
>

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