[lg policy] AZERBAIJAN: WITH DEPARTURE OF TWO KARABAKH MEDIATORS, FUTURE OF TALKS UNCLEAR

Thu Aug 6 23:23:55 UTC 2009

AZERBAIJAN: WITH DEPARTURE OF TWO KARABAKH MEDIATORS, FUTURE OF TALKS UNCLEAR
Shahin Abbasov: 8/06/09

The expected departure of the American and Russian envoys to talks
over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory is diminishing
Azerbaijani expectations about a potential breakthrough in the peace
process.

Russian Ambassador Yuri Merzlyakov was the first to announce news of
his departure from the so-called Minsk Group, a body created by
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to oversee the
Karabakh negotiations, and chaired by envoys from France, the US and
Russia. Merzlyakov also indicated that US Deputy Assistant Secretary
of State Matthew Bryza, another Minsk Group co-chair, is leaving.

Merzlyakov, who has acted as a mediator since 2002, told the Trend
news agency on July 22 that Bryza and he would leave their posts by
the end of the year. Merzlyakov claimed that Bryza's last visit to the
region as US ambassador to the Minsk Group would take place in
September.

Bryza has worked on the Karabakh talks since 2006 and has also advised
on US Caspian Basin energy policy. The US State Department has not
issued any official information about Bryza's departure from the Minsk
Group. A State Department source, however, told RFE/RL's Azerbaijani
service on July 31 that Bryza will end his term with the Minsk Group
in late September.

Despite Azerbaijan's growing energy ties with Russia, the news of
Merzlyakov's departure sparked scant reaction in Baku. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The departure of Bryza, who enjoys
near-celebrity status in both Azerbaijan and Georgia, has re-ignited
speculation both about the Karabakh negotiations and his own future
career.

In an August 5 interview with the APA news agency, Bryza treaded
cautiously on both counts. "I don't know what exactly is going to be
next for me," he said. "I will have a new assignment soon. . . . I
just have to be patient."

Bryza added that "I am not done yet with the Minsk Group." The US
diplomat said that he will travel to the South Caucasus "on behalf of
all three co-chairs" in roughly 10 days to try and move forward with
"the updated ideas of the Madrid Document, which we hope will lay the
foundation for an agreement soon." [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].

An updated version of the Madrid Principles is expected in October,
when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan are slotted to meet. Among other provisions, the principles
provide for the return of land bordering Karabakh to Azerbaijani
control; the right of all Internally Displaced Persons to return to
Karabakh; a land corridor linking Karabakh to Armenia; international
peacekeeping operations; and, eventually, a referendum to determine
Karabakh's final status.

One Baku expert believes that the discussion about Merzlyakov's and
Bryza's reported departures suggests that the October summit may prove
the last chance for the current Minsk Group to finalize the framework
agreement. "It could end with a breakthrough and signing an agreement
on basic principles in October or with failure. It is difficult to say
what the mediators will offer, if the current process fails," noted
political analyst Rasim Musabekov.

Another expert, however, contends that Bryza's and Merzlyakov's
departures will have little or no impact on the negotiations.
"Diplomats' personalities are important, but the will of the
superpowers' leadership is a much more significant factor," commented
Elhan Shahinoglu of Baku's Atlas think-tank. "If Moscow and Washington
will continue to be active in the Nagorno-Karabakh talks as they have
been in recent months, there is hope for progress."

One former presidential foreign policy aide, and a critic of the
Madrid Principles, agrees. Neither Bryza nor Merzlyakov, he added, has
brought anything serious to the table during their tenures, said Vafa
Guluzade, who served as Azerbaijan's envoy to the Karabakh talks
between 1993 and 1998. "[L]ittle depends on the Minsk Group's
co-chairs in the conflict resolution process, and their replacement is
not going to affect the process seriously," Guluzade said.

Some experts in the United States point out that Bryza is viewed with
suspicion by the Kremlin for having a perceived bias for Georgia
against Russia. [For background, click here] Thus it is possible that
the joint departures of Bryza and Merzlyakov could be a quid-pro-quo
move with an eye toward helping Russia and the United States "reset"
relations.

Whatever the case, with a question mark over details of Bryza's next
career move, attention is turning to the empty US ambassador's post to
Azerbaijan. Despite Bryza's denials, Azerbaijani media continues to
cite an article in the June 2009 Foreign Policy magazine that reported
that he would be appointed to the job. The previous ambassador, Anne
Derse, left Azerbaijan in early July. US President Barack Obama has
not yet named her successor.

In mid-July, the Turan news agency, citing unnamed sources in
Washington, DC, claimed that the White House, reportedly uncertain
whether Congress would support Bryza's candidacy for ambassador, is
now debating his selection. Baku observers differ on the possibility
of such an appointment.

Shahinoglu calls the US diplomat "a controversial figure" despite his
"constant optimism." Bryza has reportedly close ties with Azerbaijani
officials that could spark unease among many Azerbaijanis if he is
named ambassador to Baku, the analyst argued. Opposition leaders in
Baku are known to be opposed to Bryza's nomination.

Another Baku expert, Musabekov contended that "Bryza's overly close
ties with the Azerbaijani ruling elite are exaggerated."

"I think he has close working ties with the Azerbaijani leadership,
which is normal for a diplomat who has been the Minsk Group's co-chair
for [three] years," Musabekov said. A US embassy spokesperson declined
to comment on reports about Bryza's candidacy for the post.

Editor's Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent based in
Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society
Institute-Azerbaijan.
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav080609a_pr.shtml

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