[lg policy] Caucasus: MEDIATORS REPORT ’IMPORTANT PROGRESS’ IN KARABAKH TALKS, BUT DIFFICULTIES REMAIN

[Harold Schiffman]

MEDIATORS REPORT ’IMPORTANT PROGRESS’ IN KARABAKH TALKS, BUT
DIFFICULTIES REMAIN
11/22/09
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from RFE/RL


MUNICH -- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian
counterpart, Serzh Sarkisian, made "important progress" today at four
hours of talks in the German city of Munich to discuss the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, mediators say. "Some important progress has
been reached," said Bernard Fassier from the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). "At the same time, we have
identified some difficulties." Both Aliyev and Sarkisian left the
talks without speaking to journalists. Fassier told reporters that he
and his co-mediators from the United States and Russia would begin to
prepare for the next round of talks, but did not say when such talks
might take place.

Today’s talks were the latest in a string of meetings held this year
as the two leaders seek to settle their countries’ long-standing
dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave in Azerbaijan controlled by
ethnic Armenian forces. Mediators from the United States, Russia, and
France -- the co-chairs of the OSCE’s mediating Minsk Group -- say
they have been making progress in the talks. But so far neither side
has committed to difficult concessions. Hrair Tamrazian, the director
of RFE/RL’s Armenian Service, was in Munich today.

"The Armenian opposition is putting pressure on Serzh Sarkisian not to
make any further concessions to the Azeris," he said, adding that he
believes the next round of talks will occur at the end of the year.

Diplomacy ’Exhausted’

Today’s talks came days after Aliyev said hopes to resolve the
conflict through diplomatic means would be "exhausted" if an agreement
did not materialize in Munich.

Speaking on November 20 at a meeting of Azerbaijani refugees from the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, he warned that Azerbaijan is ready to use
force to reclaim the rebel region.

It wasn’t the first time Aliyev has threatened force to take back the territory.

Although the line of contact is unstable, Tamrazian says armed
conflict is unlikely.

"I don’t believe that there will be a use of force. Neither France nor
the United States or France will let that happen," Tamrazian says. "In
two days, Ilham Aliyev travels to Moscow to meet Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev, and the Russians will try to persuade him that not
only Armenia, but also Azerbaijan, has to make concessions."

Aliyev’s comments reflect Azerbaijani fears that Turkey’s move last
month to normalize ties with Armenia could ruin hopes for regaining
control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkey, a staunch ally of Azerbaijan, has consistently supported Baku
in the dispute.

Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, backed by Armenia, broke off
from Azerbaijani rule in a war in the early 1990s that killed about
30,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands.

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/pp112209.shtml
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