Some thoughts on the Danube Crossing of 376

[Michael Erwin]

- Ammianus doesn't try to estimate the migration's size; Eunapius  
estimates 200,000; I don't know the context and don't know whether  
this is the negotiated crossing alone.

- Treadgold estimates an imperial population of 16,500,000. This  
implies an average provincial population around 300,000.

- Moesia Secunda is the most likely settlement area, because (1) it  
borders on Thervingia (2) it has similar climate and soil types to  
Thervingia (3) it has fewer cities, and more land, than Scythia  
Minor. This suggests lower population density and more available  
farmland. (4) The Moesian Goths had already settled in the Moesia  
Secunda.

- Many refugee populations are disproportionately composed of women  
and children. For instance the refugees from the last Balkan wars  
were about 65% female. Below about 100,000 people, I'd assume such  
demographics [e.g. for the Vandals]; above about 100,000 people I'd  
assume more-or-less balanced demographics.

- When the revolt broke out, the rebels had no existing political  
infrastructure. We might point to the personal followings of certain  
leaders, the Roman military administration, or the various church  
organizations, but it's doubtful that the middle and latter would  
facilitate an armed rebellion (though the last could provide a  
diplomatic go-between and various non-military stuff).

- Very few rebellions can mobilize more than 3% of the population in  
the war effort. That 3% includes militia and support units. The  
Yugoslav Partisans may have reached 5% in early 1945. The Chinese  
Communist Party probably reached 3% in Yenan in mid-1940, depending  
on local  population estimates. The American Revolution peaked at  
about 3% for the rebels and somewhat less for the loyalists, but both  
sides had decades-old political infrastructure and the administration  
to raise regular armies.

- 3% would imply 6,000 fighters and militia out of 200,000 people.  
Local rebels could swell these numbers, but would need to defend  
their territory, and might contribute very little to the deployable  
strength. Trans-Danubian groups could swell these numbers, but there  
were probably as many pro-Athanaric people as pro-Fritigern people  
still in Thervingia.
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