Some thoughts on the Danube Crossing of 376

[Tore Gannholm]

Hi!
The following link could also be of interest

http://www.stavgard.com/romaniron/goterna_/default.htm

Tore

On Jan 16, 2007, at 9:17 PM, Michael Erwin wrote:

> - Ammianus doesn't try to estimate the migration's size; Eunapius
> estimates 200,000; I don't know the context and don't know whether
> this is the negotiated crossing alone.
>
> - Treadgold estimates an imperial population of 16,500,000. This
> implies an average provincial population around 300,000.
>
> - Moesia Secunda is the most likely settlement area, because (1) it
> borders on Thervingia (2) it has similar climate and soil types to
> Thervingia (3) it has fewer cities, and more land, than Scythia
> Minor. This suggests lower population density and more available
> farmland. (4) The Moesian Goths had already settled in the Moesia
> Secunda.
>
> - Many refugee populations are disproportionately composed of women
> and children. For instance the refugees from the last Balkan wars
> were about 65% female. Below about 100,000 people, I'd assume such
> demographics [e.g. for the Vandals]; above about 100,000 people I'd
> assume more-or-less balanced demographics.
>
> - When the revolt broke out, the rebels had no existing political
> infrastructure. We might point to the personal followings of certain
> leaders, the Roman military administration, or the various church
> organizations, but it's doubtful that the middle and latter would
> facilitate an armed rebellion (though the last could provide a
> diplomatic go-between and various non-military stuff).
>
> - Very few rebellions can mobilize more than 3% of the population in
> the war effort. That 3% includes militia and support units. The
> Yugoslav Partisans may have reached 5% in early 1945. The Chinese
> Communist Party probably reached 3% in Yenan in mid-1940, depending
> on local population estimates. The American Revolution peaked at
> about 3% for the rebels and somewhat less for the loyalists, but both
> sides had decades-old political infrastructure and the administration
> to raise regular armies.
>
> - 3% would imply 6,000 fighters and militia out of 200,000 people.
> Local rebels could swell these numbers, but would need to defend
> their territory, and might contribute very little to the deployable
> strength. Trans-Danubian groups could swell these numbers, but there
> were probably as many pro-Athanaric people as pro-Fritigern people
> still in Thervingia.
>
> 



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