AZERBAIJAN: IT'S BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD FOR KARABAKH TALKS

[Harold Schiffman]

Eurasia Insight:
AZERBAIJAN: IT'S BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD FOR KARABAKH TALKS
Rovshan Ismayilov: 4/16/08


Tensions have subsided between Azerbaijan and the mediation group
charged with overseeing talks with Armenia over the breakaway region
of Nagorno-Karabakh. Even so, any progress that had been made toward a
lasting peace settlement appears to have been lost.
At an April 15 meeting of the regional cooperation bloc GUAM (Georgia,
Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) in Baku, Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov said that Azerbaijan expects new proposals from the
current international mediators for continuing the negotiations with
Armenia on a Karabakh settlement. Mammadyarov also expressed
willingness to meet with Armenia's newly appointed foreign minister,
Eduard Nalbandian.

"If the ministers will come to an agreement, the meeting of the
presidents could happen," Mammadyarov said, referring to Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev and recently inaugurated Armenian President
Serzh Sarkisian. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In
recent weeks, Azerbaijani officials have complained about deficiencies
in the peace process, venting much of their frustration on the OSCE
Minsk Group, the entity co-chaired by France, Russia and the United
States. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Now Baku may
be willing to engage Armenia in the so-called Prague Process, but the
Azerbaijani government insists that peace talks must start from
scratch. At several points in recent years, it appeared that Baku and
Yerevan had sketched out the parameters of a deal. That no longer
seems to be the case.

"It is important for us that Armenia will accept the conflict
resolution principle within the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial
integrity. The international community accepted it, and Armenia has to
do the same," Mammadyarov said. Autonomy for Karabakh within
Azerbaijan is one possible topic for discussion, he continued. In the
past, Karabakh's separatist leaders and Armenian officials in Yerevan
have categorically rejected such an arrangement.

Chances for any discussion getting off to a dramatically fresh start
appear slim, as enmity between the two neighbors remains high. For
example, Aliyev refused to meet with Sarkisian at the April 2-4 North
Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Bucharest. In addition, each
side blames the other for a series of cease-fire violations in
February and March. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
While Baku has refuted reports that it intends to push for the
mediators' immediate replacement, some experts believe that the
government is keeping its discontent in reserve, to bring pressure on
the Minsk Group in the future as needed.

Public and government frustrations with the mediators have not abated
since all three Minsk Group co-chair countries voted against a March
14 United Nations resolution that recognized Karabakh as part of
Azerbaijan. In an interview with the Interfax news agency, Aliyev
stated that Azerbaijan had expected the countries to abstain, not to
oppose the measure. Political analyst Rasim Musabekov believes that
the UN resolution was the result of Azerbaijan's dissatisfaction with
the latest proposed terms for a conflict resolution, including
continuing Armenian control over the Lachin corridor linking Karabakh
with Armenia. "Azerbaijan does not agree with these proposals and the
UN resolution in fact toughened its position," Musabekov said.

While maneuvering on the diplomatic front, Azerbaijan is proceeding
with a rapid military buildup. An increase in state revenues means
that the government plans to increase military spending in 2008 from
an initially planned $1.3 billion to $2 billion, Aliyev announced at
an April 14 cabinet meeting. Musabekov contends that a $2 billion
military budget is a factor that both Armenia and the Minsk Group
mediators will need to take into account. As energy revenues continue
to flow, Baku's military spending is only likely to increase. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The spending will put
Azerbaijan within range of larger countries such as Ukraine, "which
obviously has a much larger military capacity," he said.

Sizeable military spending does not mean a move in the near future to
retake Karabakh by force, experts said. "An imitation of negotiations
will continue for some time, the presidential elections in Azerbaijan
will happen, and so on," commented Elkhan Shahinoglu, director of the
Atlas political research center. Government officials have not
responded to a March 25 comment by US Deputy Assistant Secretary of
State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza that "some
political forces in Azerbaijan for some reason are trying to create
tension in relations between Baku and Washington."

Experts have dismissed the remark as "not serious." "Most likely it
was a diplomatic move aimed to reduce tension and to switch public
attention in Azerbaijan from criticism of the Minsk Group to debates
over the existence of some pro-Western and anti-Western forces in the
government. It is not serious," Shahinoglu said. Rasim Musabekov
agrees: "Of course, there are champions of closer relations with the
United States [within the Azerbaijani government] and those who are
against it. However, in the context of the UN resolution and generally
the Karabakh conflict, Baku's dissatisfaction with Russia is much
higher than with the United States."
"We have a wide partnership in many areas and it is developing,"
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Khazar Ibrahim stressed.


Editor's Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance correspondent based in Baku.

 http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav041608a.shtml



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